Crime, War and Wealth in Pre- and Post- Invasion Iraq

美国律师基金会国家之间的战争不会像过去那样以同样的方式进行，也不会带来同样的后果。平民日益成为新战争和当代战争的受害者。虽然针对平民的镇压性犯罪在萨达姆·侯赛因的伊拉克政权中盛行，但在联军入侵后占领期间，针对平民的经济犯罪变得更加普遍。前伊拉克政权的罪行为宗派恐惧和冲突奠定了基础，美国领导的入侵释放了这种恐惧和冲突，反过来又导致了针对平民及其财产的猖獗犯罪。这项研究将通过三项调查来评估这一顺序，其中包括在伊拉克政权更迭前后进行的9000多次个人访谈。我们将评估伊拉克是否出现了这样一个序列，即民族-宗派的强大国家镇压和剥夺之后，伊拉克出现了一个软弱的国家，在这个国家中，对安全、保护和资源需求的担忧反过来导致了广泛的宗派抢劫和帮派和民兵的暴力犯罪。我们将更具体地研究2005- 2006年达到顶峰的暴力犯罪浪潮是否也将针对财产的种族-宗派犯罪提升到了峰值水平。访谈记录将用于阐述和说明统计结果。过去对占领伊拉克期间财产损失的分析很少。然而，家庭和企业财富的损失被认为是广泛的，尤其是对伊拉克而言。美国有400多万流离失所者。先前的研究预测，在混合社区环境中，国家对犯罪和暴力控制的崩溃最为普遍。这很可能是因为冲突随着竞争群体的密切居住接触或其他方式而增加。这项研究将在巴格达被入侵后的街区测试这种预测。我们预测，在入侵后的社区中，最大的种族群体的比例越低，因此种族和宗派的混合越大，财产和人身犯罪的水平就越高。我们进一步预测，伊拉克的财富再分配首先在最初的抢劫阶段（2003-5）开始出现，然后在第二阶段（2005-6）随着针对人的暴力犯罪的增加而达到顶峰，最终在第三阶段（2007），其数量下降，但其再分配后果没有下降。本研究可利用的数据集组合，可以对从强国向弱国过渡过程中暴力犯罪的宗派和经济后果进行独特的案例研究。这是一种可能逐渐取代旧形式的军事冲突的过渡。更广泛的影响：当代战争对军事目标的影响可能不如对平民受害者的健康和社会经济福祉的影响大。这些损失和财富转移对一些人来说尤其具有毁灭性，而对另一些人来说则是巨大的机会。在发展我们的理解方面，记录和解释伊拉克等地的财富再分配的种族-宗派方面是很重要的。这种理解对于解释这些冲突如何在最需要增长和发展的地方扰乱和破坏增长和发展机会至关重要。在不断变化的国际发展和破坏的世界中，传统的军国主义方法对战争的理解往往是过时的。这一伊拉克案例研究的主要目标是增进我们对针对平民及其财产的罪行所造成的社会经济后果的理解，这些因素日益成为现代战争的特征。

SES-0960871 John Hagan American Bar FoundationStates do not fight wars in the same ways or with the same consequences as in the past. Civilians are increasingly the victims of new and contemporary wars. While repressive forms of crime against civilians prevailed in the Iraq regime of Saddam Hussein, economic crimes against civilians became more common during the post-invasion Coalition occupation. The crimes of the past Iraq regime set a foundation of sectarian fear and conflict that was released by the US-led invasion and which, in turn, led to rampant crimes against civilians and their property. The research will assess this sequence with three surveys that include more than 9,000 personal interviews conducted before and after the regime change in Iraq. We will assess whether a sequence unfolded in which ethno-sectarian strong state repression and deprivation was followed in Iraq by a weak state in which fears about safety, protection, and resource needs in turn caused extensive sectarian looting and violent crime by gangs and militias. We will more specifically examine whether the wave of violent crimes that peaked in 2005-6 also elevated ethno-sectarian crimes against property to peak levels. The interview accounts will be used to elaborate and illustrate statistical findings. There is little past analysis of property losses during the occupation of Iraq. Yet the loss of household and business wealth is assumed to be extensive, especially for Iraq?s more than four million displaced persons. Previous work predicts that breakdown in state control over crime and violence is most extensive in mixed community settings. This is likely because conflict increases as contesting groups come into close residential contact or in other ways. The research will test such predictions in the post-invasion neighborhoods of Baghdad. We predict that the lower the proportion of the largest ethnic group in a post-invasion neighborhood, and therefore the greater the ethno-sectarian mix, the higher the level of property and person crime. We further predict that a redistribution of wealth in Iraq first began to emerge during a preliminary looting stage (2003-5), then peaked with the rise of violent crimes against persons in a second stage (2005-6), and finally declined in its volume but not in its re-distributional consequences in the third period of the Surge (2007). The combination of data sets available for this research allows a unique case study of the sectarian and economic consequences of violent crime in a transition from a strong to weak state. This is a kind of transition that may be increasingly replacing older forms of military conflict. Broader Impacts: Contemporary wars may be less consequential for military targets than they are for the health and socio-economic well-being of civilian victims. These losses and transfers of wealth can be especially devastating for some while presenting enormous opportunities for others. It is important in developing our understanding to document and explain ethno-sectarian aspects of the redistribution of wealth in settings such as Iraq. This understanding is essential to explaining how these conflicts disrupt and destroy opportunities for growth and development where it often is needed most. Traditional militaristic approaches to the understanding of war in a changing world of international development and destruction are often outdated. The primary goal of this case study in Iraq is to increase our understanding of the socio-economic consequences of crimes against civilians and their property, elements that increasingly characterize modern day warfare.