CAREER: Determination of Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering Parameters using Paleoseismic Techniques

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The objective of this project is to develop and validate a framework for assessing seismic hazard parameters for regions where moderate-to-large earthquakes are high-consequence, low-probability events so that performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) can be properly implemented. The implementation of PBEE requires both the fragility of structural systems and the probabilistically quantified seismic hazard to be known in order to establish the annual probability of specific losses due to seismic events. However, the probabilistic quantification of the seismic hazard is highly uncertain in regions where the return period of moderate-to-large earthquakes is significantly longer than the historic earthquake record, such as in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and the central/eastern United States (CEUS) -- we know moderate-to-large earthquakes occurred in these regions, we just do not know how large the events were or how often they occur. Paleoseismic techniques, particularly paleoliquefaction investigations (i.e., the study of liquefaction features from pre-instrumental earthquakes), are the most plausible way to extend the earthquake record into prehistoric times. Such techniques allow both the recurrence time and characteristics of moderate-to-large earthquakes to be established and, thus, remove a major impediment to implementing PBEE in these regions. The impact of the project will be the significant reduction of the seismic risk of newly designed and constructed standard and hazardous facilities. The project is particularly timely as the nation (as well as the world) renews their interest in the construction of nuclear power plants, which if to be realized safely requires proper quantification of seismic hazard. For regions of the US where the new plants are likely to be located (e.g., CEUS), reliable paleoseismic data are absolutely essential for assessing seismic hazard. In addition to graduate students from the University of Michigan (UM), undergraduate students from both UM and Valparaiso University will participate in a demonstration exercise in which a paleoseismic investigation of the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone will be performed. Also, as part of this project, the PI is initiating an outreach program for military veterans. The reason for establishing this outreach is that veterans tend to possess many of life's skills that will enable them to succeed in academics. The vast majority of enlisted veterans come from the lower socio-economic echelons in the US, and a large percentage of veterans are underrepresented minorities, as compared to the general population.