CNH/EID: The Vector Mosquito Aedes aegypti at the Margins: Sensitivity of a Coupled Natural and Human System to Climate Change

该项目将探索埃及伊蚊的生态，这种蚊子传播登革热、黄热病和基孔肯雅热。我们假设气候变率和人类对当地环境的变化的综合影响可以影响蚊子生态和人类行为的关键方面。将该系统作为一个整体进行研究将提高我们预测蚊虫媒介和登革热病毒暴露风险以及未来气候变化可能影响的能力。登革热病毒在蚊子和人之间传播，估计每年造成1亿人感染登革热。在过去十年中，美洲经历了严重病例（登革出血热）的急剧增加，造成了毁灭性的公共卫生后果。由于目前还没有疫苗和治疗方法，控制蚊子是预防和控制登革热疫情的主要选择。由于对登革热病毒传播系统在其自然和人类组成部分之间的界面缺乏了解，这一领域的努力受到了阻碍。特别令人关切的是，登革热有可能扩展到目前不在传播区之外的地区，但在未来气候变化的情况下可能变得脆弱。例如，这种潜在的扩大对墨西哥城及其附近的约1900万人构成了风险，墨西哥城是一个高海拔“岛屿”，目前没有登革热，但在低海拔地区被登革热病毒传播所包围。该项目的具体目标是：(1)确定天气/气候因素与携带疾病的蚊子的存在和数量之间的关系，特别是作为蚊子在一个地区定居的障碍；(2)利用这些结果在高分辨率大气模型中建立未来蚊子活动范围扩大的预测模型；(3)确定人类行为和人为环境的哪些方面与Ae最密切相关。埃及伊蚊的存在和数量；(4)采用最先进的数据同化程序来验证、改进和定义该建模框架中的不确定性。将沿着墨西哥的一个垂直样带研究这一自然和人类耦合系统的关键方面，范围从具有良好的病媒蚊子种群和登革热病毒强烈传播的沿海低海拔环境到目前没有蚊子病媒和当地病毒传播的高海拔山区。来自墨西哥和美国的专家小组包括气候学家、病媒生态学家、建模师和医学人类学家。该项目将为正在进行的关于气候变化和传染病关系的辩论提供重要见解，超出了本研究的明确媒介生态学和地理界限。这项工作将提供定量知识，可用于开发控制Ae的新策略。埃及伊蚊面临未来对系统弹性的威胁。此外，它将为科罗拉多州立大学和国家大气研究中心的一名气候建模和空间风险建模博士后提供培训，并为大学和中学生提供数据收集方面的参与和现场培训。通过“参与式流行病学”，当地社区成员将学习如何利用环境观察和数据收集作为赋予社区权力的一种手段。

This project will explore the ecology of Aedes (Ae.) aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue, yellow fever and chikungunya. We hypothesize that the combined effects of climate variability and changes made by humans to their local environment can influence key aspects of both mosquito ecology and human behavior. Studying this system as a whole will improve our ability to predict risks of mosquito vector and dengue virus exposure and the possible impacts of future climate change. Dengue viruses circulate between mosquitoes and humans, causing an estimated 100 million human dengue infections annually. In the last decade, the Americas have experienced a dramatic increase in severe cases (dengue hemorrhagic fever), with devastating public health consequences. As neither vaccines nor therapeutics are yet available, mosquito control is the main option for preventing and controlling dengue outbreaks. Efforts in this area have been hindered by a poor understanding of the dengue virus transmission system at the interface between its natural and human components. Of particular concern is the potential for dengue fever to expand into areas that are presently outside transmission zones but may become vulnerable under scenarios of future climate change. For example, this potential expansion poses a risk to the ~19 million people in and near Mexico City, a high altitude "island" currently free of dengue but surrounded by dengue virus transmission at lower altitudes. Specific aims of the project are to: (1) determine how weather/climate factors are related to the presence and abundance of disease-carrying mosquitoes, especially by serving as barriers to mosquitoes becoming established in an area; (2) use these results in high-resolution atmospheric models to develop a predictive model for future mosquito range expansion; (3) determine which aspects of human behavior and attributes of man-made environments are most closely related to Ae. aegypti presence and abundance; (4) employ state-of-the-science data assimilation procedures to validate, refine, and define uncertainty in this modeling framework. Key aspects of this coupled natural and human system will be studied along an altitudinal transect in Mexico, ranging from coastal, low-elevation environments with well established vector mosquito populations and intense dengue virus transmission to high-elevation, mountainous areas which currently are free of the mosquito vector and local virus transmission. The team of experts from Mexico and the United States includes climatologists, vector ecologists, modelers and medical anthropologists.The project will contribute essential insights into the ongoing debate about climate change and infectious disease relationships, extending beyond the explicit vector ecology and geographic boundaries of this study. The work will provide quantitative knowledge that can be used to develop novel strategies to control Ae. aegypti in the face of future threats to system resilience. Further, it will provide training for a postdoctoral fellow in climate modeling and spatial risk modeling at both Colorado State University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research and involvement and in situ training of university and secondary school students in data collection. Through "participatory epidemiology", local community members will learn how to use environmental observation and data collection as a means of community empowerment.