CNH: Coupled Natural and Human Systems in Fire-Prone Landscapes: Interactions, Dynamics, and Adaptation

这个项目的重点是提高我们对生物物理系统、管理行动和社会经济影响如何相互作用，以影响气候变化下易发生火灾的景观的可持续性的理解。这项工作整合了社会科学和生态科学，以研究俄勒冈州中部的火灾多发地貌，其中包括私人、州、联邦和部落土地。我们的方法将结合已建立的空间上明确的、政策驱动的、多主体的土地管理决策模型，能够代表气候变化影响的植被演替和火灾点火/传播模型，以及一套社会经济和生态系统绩效的景观评估器。该项目将把现有的生态系统研究与表征人类在这些景观中的偏好和价值的新的和正在进行的研究相结合，以使多智能体模型与人类决策的合理表述相结合。我们将扩展基于主体的模型的应用，以研究社会网络如何影响景观动态和适应，并使用蒙特卡罗技术探索替代政策和气候变化情景下的景观轨迹，以了解景观变化的变化/不变方面、土地管理政策战略、人类偏好和生态系统反馈。这些分析将有助于确定管理战略，以提高这些景观的适应能力，以应对不确定的未来。我们预计该项目将：1)揭示与易起火景观相关的复杂系统行为；2)提高多所有权易起火景观中森林管理政策的有效性；3)提高对社会网络(如消防区和环境组织)和经济力量在影响土地所有者和管理者在风险和不确定性下做出决策的作用的理解；4)提高对气候变化和碳市场的外部力量如何影响政策结果、生物多样性和生态系统服务的理解。美国的野火政策支离破碎，很大程度上是因为土地和野火管理政策没有充分考虑人类和生态影响。通常情况下，火灾多发的景观在消防管理机构的影响下被划分为荒地-城市界面，在土地管理者的影响下被划分为野生景观。这两个火灾世界通常被视为在社会、经济和组织上是分开的，但它们显然是一个相互关联的单一景观的一部分。由于缺乏对这些联系的理解，导致政策无效，甚至适得其反。例如，灭火可能会增加火灾的严重性，并将资源从荒野地区的必要生态恢复工作中抽走。当考虑到气候变化和碳市场时，适应火灾多发地区的问题就更具挑战性。为了制定更有效的政策，我们需要提高对社会制度--网络和机构--如何影响私人和公共土地所有者行为的理解。这项研究将开发方法来描述这些社会系统及其与环境的相互作用，并利用这些信息来探索和测试替代策略，以改善景观，同时将与野火相关的社会和经济成本降至最低。

This project focuses on improving our understanding of how biophysical systems, management actions, and socio-economic influences interact to affect sustainability in fire-prone landscapes under climate change. This work integrates social and ecological sciences to study a fire-prone landscape in central Oregon that includes private, state, federal, and tribal lands. Our method will combine an established spatially explicit, policy-driven, multiagent model of land management decision-making, models of vegetative succession and fire ignition/spread that can represent climate change effects, and a suite of landscape evaluators of socio-economic and ecological system performance. The project will integrate existing studies of ecosystems with new and ongoing studies characterizing human preferences and values in these landscapes to parameterize the multiagent model with defensible representations of human decision-making. We will extend the application of agent-based models to study how social networks influence landscape dynamics and adaptation, and explore landscape trajectories under alternative policy and climate change scenarios using Monte Carlo techniques to understand variant/invariant aspects of landscape change, land management policy strategies, human preferences, and ecosystem feedbacks. These analyses will help identify management strategies that increase adaptive capacity of these landscapes to respond to uncertain futures. We anticipate this project will: 1) reveal complex system behaviors associated with fire-prone landscapes, 2) improve effectiveness of forest management policies in multiownership fire-prone landscapes, 3) improve understanding of the role of social networks (e.g. fire protection districts and environmental organizations) and economic forces in influencing how landowners and managers make decisions under risk and uncertainty, and 4) improve understanding of how external forces of climate change and carbon markets could affect policy outcomes, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Wildland fire policies in the U.S. are fragmented and broken, largely because land and wildfire management policies do not fully consider human and ecological effects. Typically, the fire-prone landscape is divided into a "wildland-urban interface" under the influence of fire management agencies, and a wild landscape under the influence of land managers. These two fire worlds are often seen as socially, economically, and organizationally separate, yet they are clearly part of a single interconnected landscape. Lack of understanding of these connections has lead to policies that are ineffective or even counterproductive. For example, fire suppression can increase the severity of fires and draws resources away from necessary ecological restoration work in wilder parts of the landscape. The problem of adaptation to fire-prone landscapes is even more challenging when climate change and carbon markets are considered. In order to develop more effective policies, we need to improve our understanding of how social systems - networks and institutions - influence behavior in private and public landowners. This study will develop methods to characterize these social systems and their interactions with the environment, and use this information to explore and test alternative strategies that improve the landscape while minimizing the social and economic costs associated with wildfire.