CNH: The Effects of China's Grain-for-Green Program on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural-Human System in Rural China

反常的经济效应会在自然系统和人类系统之间产生强烈的负反馈。例如，影响未来相关资源供应的自然资源使用带来的短期、精细、净经济效益可能会减少长期、大规模的经济效益。许多政府项目已经有效地测试了这样一个假设，即这种负面反馈可以通过经济反激励措施来消除，但这些项目中很少有项目适合并接受所需的严格科学分析，以确定测试的真实结果，并帮助推广结果。这个项目将分析在最广泛使用的反激励类型中可能是最大的一个项目，即中国的坡地改造项目，这是一个为环境服务支付的项目。根据这项计划，政府向农民支付费用，让他们在坡地或其他生态敏感地区退耕还林或退耕还草。研究人员将对三个省份的农民和地方政府机构进行调查，以确定该计划是如何实施的，并影响农民的决策，使用卫星图像检测土地覆盖的变化，并根据实地测量建立碳储量和水资源可用性的模型。该项目的结果将对美国的政策制定者和土地使用管理者具有重要价值，美国已经尝试了类似的项目，并在生态恢复和保护的背景下对其进行了设想。这项研究还将有助于为减少森林砍伐和森林退化造成的碳排放的全球讨论提供信息。该项目将加强美国和中国在社会科学和自然科学方面的科学合作，并培养一大批本科生和研究生。

Perverse economic effects can create strong negative feedbacks between natural and human systems. For example, short-term, fine-scale, net economic benefits from uses of natural resources that compromise the future supply of related resources can reduce long-term, large-scale economic benefits. Numerous governmental programs have effectively tested the hypothesis that such negative feedbacks can be eliminated with economic counter-incentives, but few if any of these programs have been suitable for and subjected to the rigorous scientific analysis needed to determine the true results of the test and help generalize results. This project will analyze what is probably the largest program within the most widely used type of counter-incentive, the Sloping Lands Conversion Program of China, a program of payment for environmental services. Under this program, the government pays farmers to convert cropland on sloping or otherwise ecologically sensitive areas to forest or grassland. Researchers will survey farmers and local governmental agencies in three provinces to determine how the program was implemented and affected the decisions of farmers, detect changes in land cover using satellite imagery, and model carbon storage and water availability based on field measurements. Results of this project will be of great value to policy makers and land use managers in the U.S., where similar programs have been tried and are envisioned in the context of ecological restoration and protection. The research also will help inform the global discourse on reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. This project will strengthen scientific collaboration in both social and natural science between the U.S. and China, and train numerous undergraduate and graduate students.