WSC-Category 2: Extreme events impacts on water quality in the Great Lakes: Prediction and management of nutrient loading in a changing climate

摘要：极端事件对五大湖水质的影响：气候变化中营养负荷的预测与管理五大湖是重要的淡水资源，但存在着长期的水质问题。气候变化引发的极端事件预计将影响该地区的生态系统和生态系统服务，对社会和经济福祉产生影响。尽管越来越多的证据表明这些问题的严重性，但关于气候、生态和社会系统如何作为耦合系统相互作用的知识有限且支离破碎。伊利湖的再富营养化说明了自然和人类系统之间复杂的相互作用，并指出了有效和适应性管理这一资源的挑战。在GL地区，农业生产和土地利用变化是水质的主要驱动因素，极端天气事件可以影响农业实践的选择。例如，较大的风暴事件可以增加瓦片排水沟的使用，而长期干旱可以增加灌溉的采用。土地利用方式还与极端天气事件相互作用，影响水质。例如，据推测，春季风暴强度的增加及其与施肥有关的时间会改变径流中溶解活性磷与总磷的比例，从而影响伊利湖浮游植物群落。通过这些和类似的反馈，气候变化引起的极端事件可能对GL的生态和社会经济系统造成不可预测的影响。反过来，这些变化可能会对该地区的气候产生反馈，推动进一步的系统变化。智力价值：该提案的问题是：“气候变化引起的极端事件对五大湖系统的水质和生态可能产生什么影响，什么样的管理策略将有效地应对这些变化？”GL地区复杂的、共同进化的人类和自然系统需要在水质研究中进行范式转变。因此，他们将通过可持续发展科学的视角来解决这个问题，重点关注气候敏感的伊利湖西部盆地，可持续发展科学提供了一个框架，在这个框架中，每个子系统都可以随着时间的推移自主变化，同时与其他子系统相互作用。在应用这一框架时，他们将开发模型、分析、数据和信息，以更好地理解物理、生物、社会和经济系统之间的相互作用，并探索和告知潜在的治理系统对这些变化的响应。他们将在各个组成部分（自然气候、生态水文、社会经济）内以及通过这些组成部分的综合创造新的知识。物理气候分量将通过结合气候和基于事件的模拟来研究极端事件降水的形成以及土地利用/湖泊/大气反馈的作用。社会和经济部分将研究气候变化引起的人类迁移和农业生产适应对土地空间利用模式和土地市场的影响。生态水文部分将超越淡水富营养化是由总磷负荷驱动的传统观念，并探索气候/极端事件/土地利用相互作用如何增强更多生物活性磷形式的输送。为了进一步了解GL水质问题，将研究磷负荷与入侵物种在再富营养化中的相对影响。治理组件将通过衡量集成的知识如何改变决策者对现有制度和工具的看法，以及他们可能需要什么来设计新的制度和工具来进行创新。组件将通过基于模型的交互相互通知，并且建模活动的结果将用于进一步了解治理系统中的机会和约束。通过使用可持续性科学的范例来提出水系统综合研究的框架，框架、方法和许多结果将可转移到其他问题设置和地点。更广泛的影响：他们的结果将促进对人类-气候-水质耦合系统的科学理解，并为大湖地区的决策提供信息和影响。他们将通过“调查州”（ITS）和“密歇根海洋拨款”（MSG）项目将研究纳入K-12教育，从而促进培训、教学和学习，并将通过在伊普斯兰蒂新技术高中开展探究式学习，扩大代表性不足的少数民族的参与。通过发表研究成果，以及通过ITS和MSG项目创建教育和专业发展资源，也将进行广泛传播。生态水文和社会经济组成部分将以现有网络为基础，并使流域理事会和政府机构密切参与。他们将培养5名研究生和2名博士后学者，特别注重指导博士后学者和在综合跨学科背景下培养研究生。

ABSTRACTProposal # 1039043WSC CATEGORY 2: EXTREME EVENTS IMPACTS ON WATER QUALITY IN THE GREAT LAKES: PREDICTION AND MANAGEMENT OF NUTRIENT LOADING IN A CHANGING CLIMATE The Great Lakes (GL) are a vital freshwater resource with chronic water quality problems. Climate-change-induced extreme events are expected to affect the region's ecosystems and ecosystem services, with impacts on social and economic well-being. Despite mounting evidence of the severity of these issues, knowledge is limited and fragmented about how the climate, ecological, and social systems interact as coupled systems. The re-eutrophication of Lake Erie illustrates the complex interactions among natural and human systems, and points to the challenge of managing this resource effectively and adaptively. In the GL region, agricultural production and land use change are major drivers of water quality, and extreme weather events can influence the choice of agricultural practices. For example, larger storm events can increase use of tile drains or prolonged drought can increase adoption of irrigation. Land use practices also interact with extreme weather events to impact water quality. For example, increasing intensity of spring storms and their timing relative to fertilizer application has been hypothesized to change the ratio of dissolved reactive phosphorus to total phosphorus in runoff, impacting Lake Erie phytoplankton communities. Through these and similar feedbacks, climate-change-induced extreme events may cause as yet unpredicted impacts to the GL ecological and socio-economic systems. These changes, in turn, might feedback on the region's climate, driving further system changes. Intellectual Merit: This proposal asks: "What are the possible effects of climate-changed-induced extreme events on water quality and ecology in the Great Lakes system, and what management strategies will be effective in addressing these changes?" The complex, co-evolving human and natural systems in the GL region create the need for a paradigm shift in the study of water quality. Accordingly, they will address this question, with a focus on the climate-sensitive western basin of Lake Erie, through the lens of Sustainability Science, which provides a framework in which each sub-system can autonomously change through time while interacting with other sub-systems. In applying this framework, they will develop models, analysis, data, and information to better understand interactions among the physical, biological, social, and economic systems, and to explore and inform potential governance system responses to these changes. They will create new knowledge both within the individual components (physical climate, eco-hydrological, socio-economic) and through synthesis of these components. The physical climate component will investigate extreme-event precipitation formation and the role of land-use/lake/atmosphere feedbacks through a combination of climate and event-based simulations. The social and economic components will study the implications of climate-change-induced adaptations in human migration and agricultural production for spatial land use patterns and land markets. The eco-hydrological component will move beyond the traditional notion that freshwater eutrophication is driven by total phosphorus loads, and explore how the climate / extreme-event / land-use interactions enhance delivery of more biologically active phosphorus forms. To further understand GL water quality issues, the relative effects of phosphorus loading versus invasive species in the re-eutrophication will be examined.The governance component will innovate by gauging how integrated knowledge may change decision-makers' perceptions of available institutions and tools, and what they might need to design new ones. The components will inform one another through model-based interactions, and the outcomes of the modeling activities will be used to further understand opportunities and constraints in governance systems. By using the paradigm of sustainability science to propose a framework for the integrated study of water systems, the framework, methods, and many results will be transferable to other problem settings and locations.Broader Impacts: Their results will advance the scientific understanding of coupled human-climate-water quality systems, and inform and influence decision-making in the Great Lakes region. They will promote training, teaching, and learning by integrating research into K-12 education through the Investigate the State (ITS) and Michigan Sea Grant (MSG) programs, and will broaden participation of underrepresented minorities through inquiry-based study at the Ypsilanti New Tech High School. Broad dissemination will also occur through publication of research results, and through creation of educational and professional development resources via the ITS and MSG programs. The eco-hydrological and socio-economic components will build on existing networks, and closely involve watershed councils and government agencies. They will train five graduate students and two postdoctoral scholars, with specific attention to mentoring postdoctoral scholars and training graduate students in an integrated interdisciplinary context.