WSC-Category 2: Extreme events impacts on water quality in the Great Lakes: Prediction and management of nutrient loading in a changing climate

WSC第2类提案#1039043：影响大湖水质的极端事件：气候变化中营养负荷的预测和管理五大湖（GL）是一个重要的淡水资源，具有长期的水质问题。气候变化引发的极端事件预计将影响该区域的生态系统和生态系统服务，并对社会和经济福祉产生影响。尽管有越来越多的证据表明这些问题的严重性，但关于气候、生态和社会系统如何作为耦合系统相互作用的知识是有限和零散的。伊利湖的再富营养化说明了自然和人类系统之间复杂的相互作用，并指出了有效和适应性地管理这一资源的挑战。在GL地区，农业生产和土地使用变化是水质的主要驱动因素，极端天气事件可能影响农业做法的选择。例如，更大的风暴事件可能会增加瓷砖排水沟的使用，或者长期干旱可能会增加灌溉的采用。土地使用做法还与极端天气事件相互作用，影响水质。例如，增加强度的春季风暴和他们的时间相对于施肥已被假设为改变溶解的活性磷的比例，总磷径流，影响伊利湖浮游植物群落。通过这些和类似的反馈，气候变化引起的极端事件可能对全球变暖的生态和社会经济系统造成尚未预料到的影响。反过来，这些变化可能会反馈到该地区的气候，推动进一步的系统变化。智力优势：这项建议要求：“气候变化引起的极端事件对五大湖系统的水质和生态可能产生哪些影响，哪些管理战略将有效应对这些变化？“GL地区复杂的、共同进化的人类和自然系统需要在水质研究中进行范式转变。因此，他们将通过可持续性科学的透镜来解决这个问题，重点关注气候敏感的伊利湖西部盆地，该科学提供了一个框架，在这个框架中，每个子系统都可以随着时间的推移自主变化，同时与其他子系统相互作用。在应用这一框架时，他们将开发模型，分析，数据和信息，以更好地了解物理，生物，社会和经济系统之间的相互作用，并探索和告知潜在的治理系统对这些变化的反应。它们将在各个组成部分（自然气候、生态水文、社会经济）内并通过这些组成部分的综合创造新的知识。物理气候部分将通过气候和基于事件的模拟相结合，调查极端事件降水的形成以及土地使用/湖泊/大气反馈的作用。社会和经济部分将研究气候变化引起的人类移徙和农业生产适应对土地使用空间格局和土地市场的影响。生态水文部分将超越传统的概念，淡水富营养化是由总磷负荷驱动，并探讨如何气候/极端事件/土地利用的相互作用，提高提供更多的生物活性磷的形式。为了进一步了解GL水质问题，磷负荷与入侵物种在再富营养化中的相对影响将被检查。治理部分将通过衡量综合知识如何改变决策者对现有机构和工具的看法，以及他们可能需要设计新的机构和工具来进行创新。这些组成部分将通过基于模型的交互相互通报，建模活动的结果将用于进一步了解治理系统中的机会和制约因素。通过使用可持续发展科学的范式，提出了一个框架的综合研究水系统，框架，方法和许多结果将转移到其他问题的设置和locations.Broader影响：他们的结果将推进耦合人类气候水质系统的科学认识，并告知和影响五大湖地区的决策。他们将通过调查国家（ITS）和密歇根州海洋赠款（MSG）计划将研究融入K-12教育，促进培训，教学和学习，并将通过在Ypsilanti新技术高中进行基于调查的研究来扩大代表性不足的少数民族的参与。还将通过出版研究成果以及通过ITS和MSG计划创建教育和专业发展资源来进行广泛传播。生态水文和社会经济部分将建立在现有网络的基础上，并使流域理事会和政府机构密切参与。他们将培训五名研究生和两名博士后学者，特别注意指导博士后学者和在综合跨学科背景下培训研究生。

ABSTRACTProposal # 1039043WSC CATEGORY 2: EXTREME EVENTS IMPACTS ON WATER QUALITY IN THE GREAT LAKES: PREDICTION AND MANAGEMENT OF NUTRIENT LOADING IN A CHANGING CLIMATE The Great Lakes (GL) are a vital freshwater resource with chronic water quality problems. Climate-change-induced extreme events are expected to affect the region's ecosystems and ecosystem services, with impacts on social and economic well-being. Despite mounting evidence of the severity of these issues, knowledge is limited and fragmented about how the climate, ecological, and social systems interact as coupled systems. The re-eutrophication of Lake Erie illustrates the complex interactions among natural and human systems, and points to the challenge of managing this resource effectively and adaptively. In the GL region, agricultural production and land use change are major drivers of water quality, and extreme weather events can influence the choice of agricultural practices. For example, larger storm events can increase use of tile drains or prolonged drought can increase adoption of irrigation. Land use practices also interact with extreme weather events to impact water quality. For example, increasing intensity of spring storms and their timing relative to fertilizer application has been hypothesized to change the ratio of dissolved reactive phosphorus to total phosphorus in runoff, impacting Lake Erie phytoplankton communities. Through these and similar feedbacks, climate-change-induced extreme events may cause as yet unpredicted impacts to the GL ecological and socio-economic systems. These changes, in turn, might feedback on the region's climate, driving further system changes. Intellectual Merit: This proposal asks: "What are the possible effects of climate-changed-induced extreme events on water quality and ecology in the Great Lakes system, and what management strategies will be effective in addressing these changes?" The complex, co-evolving human and natural systems in the GL region create the need for a paradigm shift in the study of water quality. Accordingly, they will address this question, with a focus on the climate-sensitive western basin of Lake Erie, through the lens of Sustainability Science, which provides a framework in which each sub-system can autonomously change through time while interacting with other sub-systems. In applying this framework, they will develop models, analysis, data, and information to better understand interactions among the physical, biological, social, and economic systems, and to explore and inform potential governance system responses to these changes. They will create new knowledge both within the individual components (physical climate, eco-hydrological, socio-economic) and through synthesis of these components. The physical climate component will investigate extreme-event precipitation formation and the role of land-use/lake/atmosphere feedbacks through a combination of climate and event-based simulations. The social and economic components will study the implications of climate-change-induced adaptations in human migration and agricultural production for spatial land use patterns and land markets. The eco-hydrological component will move beyond the traditional notion that freshwater eutrophication is driven by total phosphorus loads, and explore how the climate / extreme-event / land-use interactions enhance delivery of more biologically active phosphorus forms. To further understand GL water quality issues, the relative effects of phosphorus loading versus invasive species in the re-eutrophication will be examined.The governance component will innovate by gauging how integrated knowledge may change decision-makers' perceptions of available institutions and tools, and what they might need to design new ones. The components will inform one another through model-based interactions, and the outcomes of the modeling activities will be used to further understand opportunities and constraints in governance systems. By using the paradigm of sustainability science to propose a framework for the integrated study of water systems, the framework, methods, and many results will be transferable to other problem settings and locations.Broader Impacts: Their results will advance the scientific understanding of coupled human-climate-water quality systems, and inform and influence decision-making in the Great Lakes region. They will promote training, teaching, and learning by integrating research into K-12 education through the Investigate the State (ITS) and Michigan Sea Grant (MSG) programs, and will broaden participation of underrepresented minorities through inquiry-based study at the Ypsilanti New Tech High School. Broad dissemination will also occur through publication of research results, and through creation of educational and professional development resources via the ITS and MSG programs. The eco-hydrological and socio-economic components will build on existing networks, and closely involve watershed councils and government agencies. They will train five graduate students and two postdoctoral scholars, with specific attention to mentoring postdoctoral scholars and training graduate students in an integrated interdisciplinary context.