Collaborative Research: WSC-Category 3 - Toward Sustainability of the High Plains Aquifer Region: Coupled Landscape, Atmosphere, and Socioeconomic Systems (CLASS)

合作研究：WSC-第3类-走向高平原含水层区域的可持续性：耦合景观，大气和社会经济系统（CLASS）摘要高平原地区拥有一些最富有成效的灌溉农业用地在美国由于巨大的奥加拉拉高平原含水层（HPA）复杂，但这个系统的大部分是在一个根本上不可持续的道路，由于广泛的地下水抽取自20世纪30年代。该地区的未来将取决于一系列州和地方法律法规，复杂的经济驱动因素，可变的土壤生产力和饱和厚度，以及预测将增加现有区域降水和蒸散梯度严重程度的气候变化。这个跨学科的项目通过连接基于过程的气候，水文，动态植被和计量经济学模型来研究与HPA相关的耦合景观，大气和社会经济系统（CLASS）。研究人员利用对该地区数十年深入研究的数据，应用CLASS建模套件来更好地了解历史变化、系统相互作用以及气候、水文和农业生态系统之间的反馈。从这一历史背景的见解，一系列可能的未来社会，经济，气候，农业工程和土地管理条件对该地区的水文和经济的可持续性的影响可以量化。模拟了季节到世纪时间尺度的日变化过程，以研究短期扰动和长期趋势的可能影响。 该项目广泛地整合了工程和物理，生物和社会科学。它提供了一套新的耦合物理过程模型，将共同模拟陆地和大气水文循环。这些物理模型耦合到一个生物系统模型，描述自然和管理的农业植被的动态增长，以及这些生物系统如何应对气候或水文变化。模型，模拟农业工程决策灌溉，管理措施，作物轮作，以响应社会和经济的驱动因素，然后用来驱动生物物理模型，并纳入系统之间的反馈。该研究提供了一个强大的建模系统，可以更好地管理区域用水，产量，养分应用和土壤碳固存，并为世界上最重要的农业地区之一的可持续性提供变革性的见解。链接的模型还允许更好地理解和量化景观，大气，农业工程和社会经济系统之间的相互作用在HPA，这将是相关的灌溉农业系统在世界各地。高分辨率模拟将为决策者和管理人员提供区域范围内的当地信息。该项目的成果还将有助于提高公众对气候变化与生物物理、农业工程和社会经济系统之间重要联系的认识。将通过互动网站向决策者、规划者和公众介绍总结结果，以便为能够改善HPA和其他含水层系统可持续性的政策提供信息。在项目团队工作的学生将在多个学科之间的接口嵌入科学，为他们提供各自领域的深入知识和在广泛的跨学科物理和社会科学团队中工作的能力。这里使用的模型和联系可以应用于世界各地的农业系统，并将免费提供给研究界。

Collaborative Research: WSC-Category 3 - Toward Sustainability of the High Plains Aquifer Region: Coupled Landscape, Atmosphere, and Socioeconomic Systems (CLASS)Abstract The High Plains region hosts some of the most productive irrigated agricultural land in the United States due to the vast Ogallala-High Plains aquifer (HPA) complex, but much of this system is on a fundamentally unsustainable path due to extensive groundwater withdrawals since the 1930s. The future of this region will be dictated by a range of state and local laws and regulations, complex economic drivers, variable soil productivity and saturated thicknesses, and a changing climate that is forecast to increase the severity of existing regional precipitation and evapotranspiration gradients. This interdisciplinary project examines the coupled landscape, atmospheric and socioeconomic systems (CLASS) associated with the HPA through linking process-based climate, hydrology, dynamic vegetation, and econometrics models. Exploiting data from decades of intense study of the region, the investigators are applying the CLASS modeling suite to better understand historical changes, system interactions, and the feedbacks among climate, hydrology, and agroecosystems. With insights from this historical context, the impacts of a range of possible future social, economic, climate, agroengineering, and land-management conditions on the sustainability of the region's hydrology and economy can be quantified. Diurnal processes are simulated over seasonal to century timescales to investigate the likely impacts of both short-term perturbations and long-term trends. This project broadly integrates across engineering and the physical, biological, and social sciences. It provides a newly-coupled set of physical process models that will together simulate the terrestrial and atmospheric hydrologic cycles. These physical models are coupled to a biological systems model describing the dynamic growth of both natural and managed agricultural vegetation, and how those biological systems respond to climatic or hydrologic variability. Models that simulate agroengineering decisions about irrigation, management practices, and crop rotations in response to social and economic drivers are then used to both drive the biophysical models and incorporate feedbacks among the systems. The research provides a powerful modeling system that can inform better management of regional water usage, yields, nutrients applications, and soil carbon sequestration, and offer transformative insights into the sustainability of one of the world's most important agricultural regions. The linked models also allow for better understanding and quantification of interactions among landscape, atmospheric, agroengineering, and socioeconomic systems over the HPA that will be relevant to irrigated agricultural systems worldwide. High resolution simulations will provide policy makers and managers with local information within a regional context. Results of the project will also help raise public awareness of critical links between climate change and biophysical, agroengineering, and socioeconomic systems. Summarized results will be presented to policy makers, planners, and the public via interactive web sites to inform policies that can improve the sustainability of the HPA and other aquifer systems. Students working on the project team will be embedded in science at the interface among multiple disciplines, providing them with both in-depth knowledge within their fields and an ability to work in broad interdisciplinary physical and social science teams. The models and linkages used here can be applied to agricultural systems worldwide and will be made freely available to the research community.