Collaborative Research WSC Category 2: Anticipating water scarcity and informing integrative water system response in the Pacific Northwest

俄勒冈州立大学（OSU）、俄勒冈大学（UO）和波特兰州立大学（PSU）正在合作对威拉米特河流域的水文、生态和社会经济因素进行全面、高度综合的研究。该团队正在应用俄勒冈州立大学开发的理论框架Envision来评估气候变化、人口增长和经济增长将如何改变威拉米特河流域水的可用性和使用。Envision提供了一个计算环境，在这个环境中，最先进的水文、生态和社会经济模型可以协同作用。Envision还包含一个基于多代理的建模组件，使其能够表示人类决策对景观变化的影响。该团队正在解决以下目标：(1)确定和量化水系统的水文、生态和社会经济维度之间的联系和反馈。(2)确定气候变化和人类活动将在何时何地造成水资源短缺。(3)评估能够使该地区预防、缓解或适应水资源短缺的广泛战略。(4)建立一种可转移的方法，预测气候变化将在哪些地区造成其他地区的水资源短缺，以及这些水资源短缺将在哪些地区对人类社会产生最强烈的影响。该小组正在与政府官员、资源管理者和其他对保护生态系统和水资源有浓厚兴趣的利益攸关方合作。组成威拉米特河流域的13个县的专员，以及州长办公室、俄勒冈水资源部、俄勒冈流域改善委员会和美国陆军工程兵团的代表都参与其中，以帮助了解他们的需求和观点，确定情景，并解释结果。该小组将与这些公职人员合作，帮助他们将研究结果转化为规划和决策过程。该小组正准备通过教科文组织的一些HELP流域传播Envision。在未来几年中，该团队将与联合国教科文组织- ihe水教育研究所合作，将Envision转让给联合国教科文组织HELP流域的研究人员，可能包括埃塞俄比亚的青尼罗河和南非的奥利凡特河。

Oregon State University (OSU), the University of Oregon (UO), and Portland State University (PSU) are collaborating on a comprehensive, highly integrated examination of hydrological, ecological, and socio-economic factors in the Willamette River Basin. The team is applying Envision, a theoretical framework developed at OSU, to evaluate how climate change, population growth, and economic growth will alter the availability and the use of water in the Willamette River Basin. Envision provides a computing environment in which state-of-the-art hydrological, ecological, and socio-economic models can interact synergistically. Envision also contains a multi-agent-based modeling component that enables it to represent the impact of human decision-making on landscape change. The team is addressing the following objectives:(1) Identify and quantify the linkages and feedbacks among hydrologic, ecological, and socioeconomic dimensions of the water system.(2) Determine where and when climate change and human activities will create water scarcities.(3) Evaluate a broad range of strategies that could enable this region to prevent, mitigate, or adapt to water scarcities.(4) Create a transferable method of predicting where climate change will create water scarcities in other regions and where those scarcities would exert the strongest impact on human society.The team is collaborating with public officials, resource managers, and other stakeholders with strong interest in protecting ecosystems and water resources. Commissioners from the thirteen counties that make up the Willamette River Basin, as well as representatives of the Governor's Office, the Oregon Water Resources Department, the Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, are involved to help to understand their needs and perspectives, to identify scenarios, and to interpret results. Working with these public officials, the team will help them translate the results of the research into planning and decision making processes.The team is preparing to disseminate Envision through some UNESCO HELP basins. In the outyears, the team will work with the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, to transfer Envision to researchers in UNESCO HELP basins, possibly including the Blue Nile in Ethiopia and the Olifants River in South Africa.