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'Power-sharing' in Post-Conflict Situations: institutional prerequisites for sustainable peace

冲突后局势中的“权力分享”：可持续和平的制度先决条件

基本信息

批准号：
200000538
负责人：
Professor Dr. Andreas Mehler
金额：
--
依托单位：
Arnold-Bergstraesser-Institut für kulturwissenschaftliche Forschung e.V. Freiburg (ABI)
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2011
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2010-12-31 至 2014-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/200000538?language=en
关键词：
Power sharing Post Conflict Situations

项目摘要

The proposed follow-up project is based on preliminary findings of the initial project. While we have found compelling evidence that post-conflict power-sharing reduces the likelihood of renewed civil conflict, we have also found that this relationship is moderated by rebel group characteristics. We have found that relatively strong rebel groups and the existence of additional rebel groups within a conflict make a civil conflict recurrence more likely. Moreover, findings from our fieldwork in Aceh (Indonesia) indicate that a proper analysis of power-sharing arrangements must take into account the developments within a rebel group. For example, the positive effect of the territorial power-sharing arrangement between the government of Indonesia and the Acehnese rebel group GAM is partly due to internal divisions within GAM. Since the end of the conflict, GAM has splintered and the ensuing competition between the former rebel group factions has replaced the centre-periphery conflict as the main political conflict in Aceh. Given these findings, we have come to the conclusion that it is imperative to analyse rebel group characteristics in greater detail; we especially need to explore which parts of a rebel group benefit from what kind of a power-sharing arrangement and how this affects post-conflict peace. Such research will provide more detailed answers to the question of the inclusiveness of post-conflict power-sharing that was raised in the original project application. We therefore want to further elaborate on the range of actors that should be incorporated in a power-sharing agreement to secure durable post-conflict peace. Specifically, we want to go a step beyond the original project application and take the dynamic organizational setting of rebel groups in a post-conflict situation into account. We thus ask the following: How does rebel fragmentation moderate the impact of power-sharing institutions on durable post-conflict peace?Against this background, the proposed follow-up project builds on recent research on fragmentation in rebel groups. The project team intends to theoretically model the relationship between rebel groups and post-conflict peace. To this end, the researchers also plan to code new variables on fragmentation of rebel groups. The methodological focus will be quantitative, but it is intended to integrate the insights from the case studies of the current project.

拟议的后续项目是根据最初项目的初步结果拟订的。虽然我们发现了令人信服的证据，表明冲突后的权力分享减少了重新爆发国内冲突的可能性，但我们也发现，这种关系受到反叛组织特征的调节。我们发现，相对强大的反叛组织和冲突中其他反叛组织的存在使国内冲突更有可能再次发生。此外，我们在亚齐（印度尼西亚）的实地调查结果表明，对权力分享安排的适当分析必须考虑到反叛组织内部的事态发展。例如，印度尼西亚政府和亚齐反叛组织GAM之间的领土权力分享安排的积极影响部分是由于GAM内部的分裂。自冲突结束以来，GAM已经分裂，前反叛组织派系之间随之而来的竞争已经取代了中心-边缘冲突，成为亚齐的主要政治冲突。鉴于这些发现，我们得出的结论是，有必要更详细地分析反叛组织的特征；我们特别需要探索一个反叛组织的哪些部分从什么样的权力分享安排中受益，以及这将如何影响冲突后的和平。这样的研究将为原项目申请中提出的冲突后权力分享的包容性问题提供更详细的答案。因此，我们要进一步详细说明应纳入一项权力分享协议以确保持久的冲突后和平的行为者的范围。具体来说，我们希望在最初的项目应用之外更进一步，将冲突后局势中反叛组织的动态组织环境考虑在内。因此，我们提出以下问题：叛军分裂如何缓和权力分享机构对持久冲突后和平的影响？在这种背景下，拟议的后续项目建立在最近对反叛组织分裂的研究基础上。该项目小组打算从理论上模拟反叛组织与冲突后和平之间的关系。为此，研究人员还计划为反叛组织的分裂编写新的变量。方法论的重点将是定量的，但它旨在整合来自当前项目的案例研究的见解。