'Power-sharing' in Post-Conflict Situations: institutional prerequisites for sustainable peace

拟议的后续项目以初步项目的初步调查结果为基础。虽然我们发现令人信服的证据表明，冲突后权力分享减少了国内冲突重新爆发的可能性，但我们也发现，这种关系因反叛团体的特点而有所缓和。我们发现，相对强大的反叛团体和冲突中更多反叛团体的存在，使国内冲突更有可能再次发生。此外，我们在亚齐(印度尼西亚)实地考察的结果表明，对权力分享安排的适当分析必须考虑到反叛团体内部的事态发展。例如，印度尼西亚政府和亚齐反叛组织GAM之间的领土权力分享安排的积极影响部分是由于GAM内部的分歧。自冲突结束以来，GAM四分五裂，随之而来的前反叛集团派别之间的竞争取代了中心-外围冲突，成为亚齐的主要政治冲突。鉴于这些调查结果，我们得出的结论是，必须更详细地分析反叛团体的特点；我们尤其需要探讨反叛团体的哪些部分受益于什么样的权力分享安排，以及这如何影响冲突后和平。这种研究将对最初的项目申请中提出的冲突后分享权力的包容性问题提供更详细的答复。因此，我们要进一步阐述应纳入权力分享协定以确保冲突后持久和平的行动者的范围。具体地说，我们希望超越最初的项目申请，并考虑到冲突后局势中反叛团体的动态组织环境。因此，我们提出以下问题：反叛分裂如何缓和权力分享机构对冲突后持久和平的影响？在此背景下，拟议的后续项目建立在最近关于反叛团体分裂的研究的基础上。项目组打算从理论上模拟反叛团体与冲突后和平之间的关系。为此，研究人员还计划对反叛组织分裂的新变量进行编码。方法的重点将是定量的，但它的目的是结合当前项目的案例研究的见解。

The proposed follow-up project is based on preliminary findings of the initial project. While we have found compelling evidence that post-conflict power-sharing reduces the likelihood of renewed civil conflict, we have also found that this relationship is moderated by rebel group characteristics. We have found that relatively strong rebel groups and the existence of additional rebel groups within a conflict make a civil conflict recurrence more likely. Moreover, findings from our fieldwork in Aceh (Indonesia) indicate that a proper analysis of power-sharing arrangements must take into account the developments within a rebel group. For example, the positive effect of the territorial power-sharing arrangement between the government of Indonesia and the Acehnese rebel group GAM is partly due to internal divisions within GAM. Since the end of the conflict, GAM has splintered and the ensuing competition between the former rebel group factions has replaced the centre-periphery conflict as the main political conflict in Aceh. Given these findings, we have come to the conclusion that it is imperative to analyse rebel group characteristics in greater detail; we especially need to explore which parts of a rebel group benefit from what kind of a power-sharing arrangement and how this affects post-conflict peace. Such research will provide more detailed answers to the question of the inclusiveness of post-conflict power-sharing that was raised in the original project application. We therefore want to further elaborate on the range of actors that should be incorporated in a power-sharing agreement to secure durable post-conflict peace. Specifically, we want to go a step beyond the original project application and take the dynamic organizational setting of rebel groups in a post-conflict situation into account. We thus ask the following: How does rebel fragmentation moderate the impact of power-sharing institutions on durable post-conflict peace?Against this background, the proposed follow-up project builds on recent research on fragmentation in rebel groups. The project team intends to theoretically model the relationship between rebel groups and post-conflict peace. To this end, the researchers also plan to code new variables on fragmentation of rebel groups. The methodological focus will be quantitative, but it is intended to integrate the insights from the case studies of the current project.