Impact of Stratospheric Ozone on Antarctica and the Southern Ocean

平流层臭氧耗竭的影响，以及预计在本世纪以后臭氧的恢复，对南极和南大洋地区气候和天气的若干方面的影响，在高纬度气候动力学的研究中具有相当大的意义。本模式研究试图利用现有的最佳观测（即再分析产品）和几个当代耦合化学气候模式（CCMs）的总体输出，来预估臭氧消耗对南半球对流层和海洋环流特征的过去和现在的影响。特别令人感兴趣的是，随着高纬度臭氧（由于《蒙特利尔议定书》）的恢复，而温室气体（GHGs）继续增加，预计这些变化在21世纪的演变。模拟研究表明，SH臭氧的影响远远超出一般大气环流。极地平流层温度的变化趋势、极地对流层喷流的位置、南环模（SAM）的强度、高纬度降水、亚热带干燥区向极地移动、南极表面温度等变化都与模式气候模拟中的O3浓度有关。将注意研究平流层臭氧对高纬度天气系统的影响。对IPCC未来气候预测的解释和WMO/UNEP高纬度臭氧评估都是这项工作成果的主要社会影响。

The impact of stratospheric ozone depletion, and its anticipated subsequent recovery this century, on several aspects of the climate and weather of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean regions is of considerable interest in the study of high-latitude climate dynamics. This modeling study seeks to use best available observations (i.e. reanalysis products) and the ensemble output of several contemporary coupled chemistry climate models (CCMs) to project the past and present impact of ozone depletion on Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropospheric and oceanic circulation features. Of particular interest is the projected evolution of these in the 21st century as high latitude ozone recovers (due to the Montreal protocols), and yet while greenhouse gases (GHGs) continue to increase. Modeling studies suggest that the influence of SH ozone extend to much more than general atmospheric circulation. Trends in polar stratospheric temperature, the location of polar tropospheric jets, the intensity of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), high latitude precipitation, poleward shifts of subtropical dry zones, Antarctic surface temperatures and other changes have been suggested to show dependencies on O3 concentrations in model climate simulations. Attention will be paid to the examination of impacts of stratospheric ozone on synoptic weather systems at high latitudes. Both the interpretation of future IPCC climate projections and WMO/UNEP high latitude ozone assessments represent the main societal impact in the outcome of this work.