Impact of Stratospheric Ozone on Antarctica and the Southern Ocean

平流层臭氧消耗及其预计在本世纪随后的恢复对南极和南大洋区域气候和天气的若干方面的影响是高纬度气候动力学研究中的一个重要问题。这项模拟研究试图利用现有的最佳观测结果（即再分析产品）和几个当代耦合化学气候模式（CCM）的集合输出，以预测臭氧消耗对南半球对流层和海洋环流特征的过去和现在的影响。特别令人感兴趣的是，随着高纬度臭氧层的恢复（由于蒙特利尔议定书），而温室气体（GHG）继续增加，这些在21世纪世纪的预计演变。 模拟研究表明，SH臭氧的影响远远超过一般大气环流。极地平流层温度的趋势、极地对流层急流的位置、南半球环形模态的强度、高纬度降水、亚热带干旱区向极地的移动、南极表面温度和其他变化都表明了模式气候模拟中对O3浓度的依赖性。将注意研究平流层臭氧对高纬度天气系统的影响。对今后气专委气候预测的解释和气象组织/环境署高纬度臭氧评估都是这项工作成果的主要社会影响。

The impact of stratospheric ozone depletion, and its anticipated subsequent recovery this century, on several aspects of the climate and weather of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean regions is of considerable interest in the study of high-latitude climate dynamics. This modeling study seeks to use best available observations (i.e. reanalysis products) and the ensemble output of several contemporary coupled chemistry climate models (CCMs) to project the past and present impact of ozone depletion on Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropospheric and oceanic circulation features. Of particular interest is the projected evolution of these in the 21st century as high latitude ozone recovers (due to the Montreal protocols), and yet while greenhouse gases (GHGs) continue to increase. Modeling studies suggest that the influence of SH ozone extend to much more than general atmospheric circulation. Trends in polar stratospheric temperature, the location of polar tropospheric jets, the intensity of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), high latitude precipitation, poleward shifts of subtropical dry zones, Antarctic surface temperatures and other changes have been suggested to show dependencies on O3 concentrations in model climate simulations. Attention will be paid to the examination of impacts of stratospheric ozone on synoptic weather systems at high latitudes. Both the interpretation of future IPCC climate projections and WMO/UNEP high latitude ozone assessments represent the main societal impact in the outcome of this work.