Physical Relations Governing the Response of the Global Sea Ice Cover to Climate Change

控制全球海冰覆盖对气候变化响应的物理关系

• 批准号: 1107795
• 负责人: Tapio Schneider
• 金额: $ 58.93万
• 依托单位: California Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-07-01 至 2015-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1107795&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Physical; Relations; Governing; Response; Global

Schneider 1107795California Institute of TechnologyThe PIs will use a systematic approach to elucidate the processes that control sea ice thickness and areal extent on seasonal and longer timescales. First, they will identify responses that are robust among current comprehensive global climate models (GCMs). Next, they will develop fundamental theories to explain these responses, beginning with the consideration of physical first principles, continuing through simulations with a hierarchy of models with increasing levels of complexity, and culminating in tests of the theories with satellite-derived observations. A principal tool will be an idealized atmosphere?sea ice GCM, which helps bridge the gap between understanding of fundamental processes and simulations with comprehensive GCMs. Using this and other models, they will test the theories developed for Arctic sea ice retreat in the broader context of sea ice changes in a continuum of climates spanning the full range from a completely ice-covered to a completely ice-free planet. These theories will be used to interpret observed sea ice changes and to evaluate the aspects of current GCM projections that differ among the models, such as the rate of 21st-century Arctic sea ice retreat. Specific questions to be addressed include:? How do interactions between sea ice and other components of the climate system determine the seasonal cycle of hemispheric sea ice cover?? What physical principles govern the sensitivity of sea ice to climate changes?The proposed research will elucidate some of the most fundamental questions about the dynamics of sea ice and climate. It will bridge the gap between state-of-the-art GCM simulations and fundamental physical understanding, thereby providing metrics for model assessment, suggesting ways for model improvement, and reducing the uncertainty in the prediction of future sea ice retreat. By exploring sea ice retreat in a wide range of climates, it will place past and possible future Arctic sea ice changes in a broader context.

Schneider 1107795 加州理工学院 PI 将使用系统方法来阐明在季节性和较长时间尺度上控制海冰厚度和面积范围的过程。首先，他们将确定当前综合全球气候模型（GCM）中稳健的应对措施。接下来，他们将开发基本理论来解释这些响应，从考虑物理第一原理开始，继续通过复杂程度不断增加的模型层次结构进行模拟，最终通过卫星观测结果对理论进行测试。主要工具将是理想化的大气-海冰 GCM，它有助于弥合基本过程的理解与综合 GCM 模拟之间的差距。使用这个模型和其他模型，他们将在从完全冰覆盖到完全无冰的行星的整个气候范围内的海冰变化的更广泛背景下测试为北极海冰消退而开发的理论。这些理论将用于解释观测到的海冰变化，并评估当前 GCM 预测中不同模型的不同方面，例如 21 世纪北极海冰消退的速度。需要解决的具体问题包括：？海冰与气候系统其他组成部分之间的相互作用如何决定半球海冰覆盖的季节周期？哪些物理原理控制着海冰对气候变化的敏感性？拟议的研究将阐明有关海冰和气候动力学的一些最基本的问题。它将弥合最先进的 GCM 模拟和基本物理理解之间的差距，从而为模型评估提供指标，提出模型改进方法，并减少未来海冰​​消退预测的不确定性。通过探索各种气候条件下的海冰消退，它将把过去和未来可能的北极海冰变化放在更广泛的背景下。