CNH: Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems in the Colorado Front Range Wildland/Urban Interface: Causes and Consequences

在美国，荒地-城市交界处只占毗连面积的9%，但包含了近39%的住房单元。在科罗拉多前线地区，随着这些地区住宅开发的增加，发生野火和山松甲虫暴发等严重骚乱的可能性急剧增加。该项目的中心目标是分析科罗拉多前锋山脉荒地-城市界面上环境、社会和经济因素之间的相互作用，并预测这些相互作用对未来景观状态的影响。总体目标是确定这种相互作用发生的机制，确定景观在维持其功能和控制(即景观弹性)的同时是否会受到干扰，并评估不同的环境和增长政策对景观和人类反应的影响。将制定叙述，以确定关键组成部分和边界，确定生态系统变化的驱动因素，并描述社会和经济条件。将开发关联的计算机模型，以研究随着时间的推移，景观对土地覆盖、火灾、虫害爆发、住房密度和建筑/景观特征变化的反应。模型将包括家庭和开发商在不同政策和经济条件下的决策。该项目将有助于在景观恢复力的背景下发展关于环境、社会和经济关系的一般理论。特别令人感兴趣的是，由于棘手的环境、社会或经济问题，很难实现弹性管理。项目成果将被纳入在不同气候和森林管理条件下探索科罗拉多前线山脉未来景观弹性的情景中。这项研究首次测试了综合建模框架的组成部分，以了解荒地-城市界面对环境、社会和经济因素变化的反应。将组织论坛和公众审查，以教育和接受利益攸关方关于荒地-城市界面的复原力的意见。目标是使利益攸关方对生态系统动态中潜在的突然和意想不到的变化敏感起来，对可以增强或降低复原力的行动达成共识，并评估不同情景的社会可接受性。

The wildland-urban interface in the United States occupies only 9% of the conterminous surface area but contains nearly 39% of all housing units. In the Colorado Front Range, increasing residential development in these locations has been accompanied by sharp increases in the likelihood of severe disturbances such as wildfires and mountain pine beetle outbreaks. The central goal of this project is to analyze the interactions among environmental, social, and economic factors in the Colorado Front Range wildland-urban interface, and to forecast the effects of these interactions on future states of the landscape. The general objectives are to identify the mechanisms by which such interactions occur, identify whether or not the landscape can experience disturbances while maintaining its functions and controls (i.e., landscape resilience), and evaluate the implications of different environmental and growth policies on landscape and human responses. Narratives will be developed to define key components and boundaries, identify drivers of ecosystem change, and characterize social and economic conditions. Linked computer models will be developed to examine landscape response over time to changes in land cover, fire, insect outbreaks, housing density, and building/landscaping characteristics. Decision making by households and developers under different policy and economic conditions will be included in the models. This project will contribute to the development of general theories about environmental, social, and economic relationships in the context of landscape resilience. Of particular interest are circumstances under which managing for resilience is difficult to achieve because of intractable environmental, social, or economic issues.Project results will be incorporated into scenarios that explore future landscape resilience in the Colorado Front Range, under different climate and forest management conditions. This research provides the first test of the components of an integrated modeling framework for understanding wildland-urban interface responses to changes in environmental, social, and economic factors. Forums and public reviews will be organized to both educate and receive input from stakeholders about resilience of the wildland-urban interface. The goals are to sensitize stakeholders to potential abrupt and unexpected shifts in ecosystem dynamics, achieve shared understanding of actions that can enhance or reduce resilience, and assess the social acceptability of different scenarios.