CNH-L: The Coupled Climate and Institutional Dynamics of Short-Lived Local Pollutants and Long-Lived Global Greenhouse Gases

CNH-L：短期当地污染物和长期全球温室气体的气候与制度动态的耦合

• 批准号: 1715557
• 负责人: Jennifer Burney
• 金额: $ 150万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-08-15 至 2022-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1715557&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Coupled; Climate; Institutional; Dynamics

Potential climate change mitigation is typically framed in both public and scientific discussions as an undertaking whose costs are local, near-term and acute, and whose returns are global, far-term and uncertain. This characterization may be true for long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane, but it is not true of compounds that are considered short-lived local pollutants (SLLPs) such as particulate matter, black carbon, sulfur dioxide and tropospheric ozone. These short-lived pollutants impact atmospheric conditions and air quality through different mechanisms over a range of spatial and temporal scales. LLGHGs and SLLPs are often co-emitted by the same processes, albeit in widely differing quantities and combinations, but to date, scientists and policymakers have largely treated these different types of emissions as both interchangeable and separable. This approach is incomplete because individual emissions species rarely can be mitigated in isolation and the net global and regional impacts of different mitigation portfolios should consider the sum of both LLGHG and SLLP effects. A full understanding of environmental impacts, and of mitigation costs and benefits, requires that SLLPs and LLGHGs be considered together, and thus is the focus of this project. Additionally, this project will contribute to the development of the scientific workforce by training several undergraduate and graduate students to work on interdisciplinary research of societal importance.This project will utilize a coupled systems approach to understanding the joint roles of LLGHGs and SLLPs in the dynamics of natural (atmospheric) and human (policymaking) systems, as well as in the processes that connect them. The objectives of this project are to 1) characterize the joint emissions of SLLPs and LLGHGs across, space, time and sector, 2) build analytical infrastructure that enables integrated analysis that is useable to both scientists and policy makers, 3) understand the mechanisms driving regional differences in the atmospheric concentrations and radiative forcing induced by identical emissions, 4) build a dynamical framework explaining the spatial pattern and magnitude of global response to individual SLLP hotspots, 5) assemble and merge novel state-of-the-art data on environmental conditions with data on agricultural and health outcomes, 6) use spatial econometrics to derive location-specific exposure-response relationships for atmospheric conditions on human health and crop yields, 7) fully couple the human and natural dynamics systems to iteratively understand how local and global costs and benefits, based on realistic implementations of national mitigations commitments, their atmospheric effects, and their locally-specific health and crop yield impacts, drive national optimal mitigation levels and overall global mitigation.

在公众和科学讨论中，潜在的气候变化减缓通常被视为一项事业，其成本是地方性的、短期的和紧迫的，其回报是全球性的、长期的和不确定的。这一特征可能适用于二氧化碳、一氧化二氮和甲烷等长寿命温室气体（LLGHG），但不适用于被认为是短寿命本地污染物（SLLP）的化合物，如颗粒物、黑碳、二氧化硫和对流层臭氧。这些短期污染物通过不同的机制在一系列空间和时间尺度上影响大气条件和空气质量。低温室气体和低温室气体通常是由同一过程共同排放的，尽管数量和组合差异很大，但迄今为止，科学家和决策者基本上将这些不同类型的排放视为可互换和可分离的。这种方法是不完整的，因为单个排放种类很少能够孤立地缓解，不同缓解组合的全球和区域净影响应考虑到低温室气体和低温室气体效应的总和。要充分了解环境影响以及减缓成本和效益，就需要将SLLP和LLGHG放在一起考虑，因此这也是本项目的重点。此外，该项目将通过培训若干本科生和研究生从事具有社会重要性的跨学科研究，为科学人才队伍的发展做出贡献。该项目将利用耦合系统方法，了解LLGHG和SLLP在自然（大气）和人类（决策）系统动态中的共同作用，以及在连接它们的过程中的作用。该项目的目标是：1）确定SLLP和LLGHG跨空间、时间和部门的联合排放特征，2）建立分析基础设施，以便进行科学家和决策者都能使用的综合分析，3）了解造成大气浓度区域差异的机制以及相同排放引起的辐射强迫，4）建立一个动态框架，解释对单个SLLP热点的全球反应的空间模式和幅度，5）收集和合并关于环境条件的最新数据与关于农业和健康结果的数据，6）使用空间计量经济学推导出大气条件对人类健康和作物产量的特定位置的可靠性-响应关系，7）充分耦合人类和自然动力系统，以反复了解当地和全球的成本和收益，基于国家减缓承诺的实际执行，其大气影响，及其对当地特定健康和作物产量的影响，推动国家最佳减缓水平和全球总体减缓。

项目成果

Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions

• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0417-3
• 发表时间: 2018-08
• 期刊: Nature
• 影响因子: 64.8
• 作者: J. Proctor;S. Hsiang;J. Burney;M. Burke;W. Schlenker

Using Crowd-Sourced Data to Assess the Temporal and Spatial Relationship between Indoor and Outdoor Particulate Matter

• DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c08469
• 发表时间: 2021-04-21
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
• 影响因子: 11.4
• 作者: Krebs, Benjamin;Burney, Jennifer;Neidell, Matthew
• 通讯作者: Neidell, Matthew

Aerosols must be included in climate risk assessments

• DOI: 10.1038/d41586-022-03763-9
• 发表时间: 2022-11
• 期刊: Nature
• 影响因子: 64.8
• 作者: G. Persad;B. Samset;L. Wilcox

Paris Agreement's Ambiguity About Aerosols Drives Uncertain Health and Climate Outcomes

• DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001787
• 发表时间: 2021-04
• 期刊: Earth's Future
• 作者: P. Polonik;K. Ricke;J. Burney

The downstream air pollution impacts of the transition from coal to natural gas in the United States

• DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0453-5
• 发表时间: 2020-01-06
• 期刊: NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
• 影响因子: 27.6
• 作者: Burney, Jennifer A.