Borrowed Power: War Finance and the Resort to Arms

借来的力量：战争金融和诉诸武器

• 批准号: 1153441
• 负责人: Branislav Slantchev
• 金额: $ 34.27万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2016-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1153441&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Borrowed; Power; War; Finance; Resort

When Louis XII contemplated the invasion of Milan in 1499, the exile Trivulzio pointed that out for success in war, "three things are necessary: money; more money; and still more money." If that statement was true then, it is even more the case in modern times with the extraordinarily, expensive upkeep of a capable military. The method of war finance affects when and how wars are fought, and on what terms they are settled. Yet most theories of international conflict are oddly divorced from this. The most widespread explanations assume that the distribution of power - the very thing that is affected by finance - is fixed or that its dynamics are outside the control of the actors. Even recent theorites that do allow actors to alter the distribution of power do not examine how their efforts are funded. This project is one of the first to examine how the form of finance can affect the initiation, duration, and outcome of war. As shown in preliminary work, features specific to sovereign debt cobine to change the dynamics of bargaining over peace terms in a way that wars, once begun, can last longer and be harder to settle. War finance is not an innocuous aspect of war, but should be regarded as an important cause of both settlement and protracted conflict. This project aims to generalize a game-theoretic model that can be used to study interactions between resource-poor actors with access to foreign financial markets, the effects of financial and political systems that determine the costs of government debt, and the methods of attracting lendors, both domestic and foreign. Hypotheses derived from this model will then be used to to test hypotheses concerning the factors mentioned above. Besides generating the model and its implications, a data set will be created concerning debt financing for countries from 1815 to the present. This dataset will be used to test the model and will also be made available to other scholars who might be studying similar topics. The reuslts of this research will aslo be made available to policy makers who are interested in issues of national security.The study of war finance, especially of how governments raise revenue to fund their military expenses and how this affects their military efforts, is likely to be of interest to political scientists in general, but also to economists and sociologists who have been interested in how war shapes the political economy of a state but rarely raised the questions addressed in this project. The projects is also the next step in the development of modern theories of war which have endogenized the distribution of power. The impact of the project is potentially transformative because the project suggests the causation mechanism can not be studied in isolation from financial structures.

1499 年，当路易十二考虑入侵米兰时，流亡者特里武齐奥指出，要在战争中取得成功，“必须具备三样东西：金钱；更多的金钱；还有更多的金钱”。 如果这种说法在当时是正确的，那么在现代，维护一支有能力的军队需要极其昂贵的费用，情况更是如此。 战争财政的方式影响战争的发生时间、方式以及解决条件。然而，大多数国际冲突理论都奇怪地脱离了这一点。 最广泛的解释假设权力的分配——即受金融影响的事物——是固定的，或者其动态超出了行为者的控制范围。 即使最近确实允许行为者改变权力分配的理论也没有研究他们的努力是如何获得资金的。 该项目是第一个研究金融形式如何影响战争的爆发、持续时间和结果的项目之一。 正如初步工作所示，主权债务的特有特征结合在一起，改变了和平条款讨价还价的动态，使得战争一旦开始，就会持续更长时间，也更难解决。 战争财政并不是战争的一个无害的方面，而应被视为解决冲突和旷日持久冲突的一个重要原因。 该项目旨在推广一个博弈论模型，该模型可用于研究资源匮乏的参与者与外国金融市场的准入之间的相互作用、决定政府债务成本的金融和政治体系的影响，以及吸引国内外贷款人的方法。 然后，从该模型得出的假设将用于检验有关上述因素的假设。 除了生成模型及其影响之外，还将创建一个有关 1815 年至今各国债务融资的数据集。 该数据集将用于测试模型，也将提供给可能研究类似主题的其他学者。 这项研究的结果也将提供给对国家安全问题感兴趣的政策制定者。战争财政的研究，特别是政府如何筹集收入来资助其军事开支以及这如何影响他们的军事努力，可能会引起一般政治学家的兴趣，但也会引起那些对战争如何塑造国家政治经济感兴趣但很少提出本项目中涉及的问题的经济学家和社会学家的兴趣。 这些项目也是现代战争理论发展的下一步，它使权力分配内生化。 该项目的影响具有潜在的变革性，因为该项目表明因果机制不能脱离金融结构来研究。