Searching for Abrupt Climate Change Precursors Using Ultra High Resolution Ice Core Analysis

该项目将对过去的气候进行超高分辨率的多参数调查，通过确定发生在气候突变事件之前的“临界点”来开发未来气候突变的预报器。将使用连续流动注射到Thermo Element 2电感耦合等离子体质谱仪和Picarro Inc.L-2130-IH2O同位素分析仪中，产生超高分辨率(高达4微米)冰芯记录--远远超过目前可用的~1厘米分辨率--使用最新开发的集成了数字图像记录和注释软件的最先进的冷冻室进行采样。PI将寻找前兆，以揭示例如温度、降水和大气环流的时间和大小变化的证据，从几十年到每年数百个采样水平。该项目将培养学生精通先进的实验室和数值模拟方法。学生将学习数据简化和可视化算法，同时帮助提供对气候具有广泛适用性的数据流。由美国国家科学基金会资助气候变化研究所开发的网络基础设施将用于存储、处理和可视化这些海量的冰芯数据，同时还将以高度透明的方式向公众提供这些信息，以供气候变化的使用和归因。

The project will undertake an ultra high resolution, multi-parameter investigation of past climate to develop predictors for future abrupt climate change through identification of the "tipping points" which occur prior to an abrupt climate change events. Ultra-high resolution (up to 4 micron) ice core records will be produced -- well beyond the ~1cm resolution currently available -- using continuous flow injection into both a Thermo Element 2 ICP-MS and a Picarro Inc. L-2130-I H2O isotope analyzer sampled using a newly developed state-of-the-art cryocell chamber integrated with digital image recording and annotating software. The PI will look for precursors that reveal evidence of changes in, for example, the timing and magnitude of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation from multi-decadal down to hundreds of sampling levels per year. The project will train students to be well versed in advanced laboratory and numerical modeling methods. Students will learn data reduction and visualization algorithms while also helping to provide a data stream that has broad applicability to climate. Cyberinfrastructure developed under NSF funding to the Climate Change Institute will be used to store, process, and visualize this high volume of ice core data while also making the information available to the public with high transparency for climate change use and attribution.