NSF CNH-Ex: Pastoralism in Transition: Linking Localized Interactions and System Behavior to Evaluate Social-Ecological Vulnerability

NSF CNH-Ex：转型中的畜牧业：将局部相互作用和系统行为联系起来以评估社会生态脆弱性

• 批准号: 1313659
• 负责人: Elizabeth King
• 金额: $ 24.95万
• 依托单位: University of Georgia Research Foundation Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-08-15 至 2017-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1313659&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NSF; CNH; Ex; Pastoralism; Transition

This CNH project is about livelihood transitions that poor rural communities in developing countries are making in order to cope with deteriorating environmental conditions, shifting social trends, and broader changes in governance. While the transformation of livelihood activities has the potential to improve human well-being, food security, and ecological sustainability, it can also have the opposite effect and increase the vulnerability of the human population and the ecosystems that support them. In the drylands of Africa, about 100 million pastoralists rely heavily or solely on livestock production for their subsistence. Modernization has brought drastic political and social changes, as well as unprecedented population growth, land degradation and more frequent droughts that decimate herds. Today, many pastoralists are adopting crop agriculture alongside their struggling livestock-based livelihood system as an avenue for much-needed diversification. Such a transformation entails profound changes in the ecological functioning of landscapes, the level of risk exposure faced by households and whole communities, and the authorities and rules governing land use and land rights. Given the complexity and novelty of these changes, assessing the conditions under which social and ecological vulnerability is likely to be alleviated or exacerbated is a profound challenge, but is urgently needed as traditional subsistence-level societies worldwide face similarly uncertain futures. This research will assess how the transition to agro-pastoralism in two Maasai communities in Kenya is affecting three components of social-ecological vulnerability: the ecosystem's sensitivity to drought and shifting grazing pressure; the degree of risk exposure that households take on as they make the transition; and the coping capacity afforded by the suite of new rules and practices adopted by the communities. The approach adopted in this research is based on advances in complex systems theory, which can be applied to ecosystems, human interactions, and governance systems alike. This approach is also highly advantageous because it enables the use of information about easily-measured, small-scale interactions to understand and predict broader trends such as tipping points and thresholds, which emerge at the level of the whole social-ecological system. By developing theoretically grounded methods to evaluate multiple dimensions of vulnerability, this research will build transformative links between theory and real-world empirical assessments. It will directly enhance the ability of scientists to understand and solve other complex sustainability problems emerging around the world. Through ongoing participation and dialogue, research procedures and findings will be shared with local community members as tools for empowerment and sustainability planning. Cooperative ties with key colleagues in regional academic, development, and conservation communities will ensure that the research tools developed will enhance the approaches and impact of other sustainability initiatives and research programs. The project's mentored PhD student and postdoc will gain a unique learning experience of the value of science-society collaborations for high-impact research outcomes. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.

该 CNH 项目涉及发展中国家贫困农村社区为应对不断恶化的环境条件、不断变化的社会趋势和更广泛的治理变革而进行的生计转型。 虽然生计活动的转变有可能改善人类福祉、粮食安全和生态可持续性，但它也可能产生相反的效果，增加人口和支持他们的生态系统的脆弱性。 在非洲旱地，约有一亿牧民严重或完全依赖畜牧业生产维持生计。现代化带来了剧烈的政治和社会变革，以及前所未有的人口增长、土地退化和导致牲畜大量死亡的更频繁的干旱。如今，许多牧民正在采用农作物农业以及苦苦挣扎的畜牧业生计系统，作为实现急需的多样化的途径。这种转变需要景观的生态功能、家庭和整个社区面临的风险水平以及管理土地使用和土地权利的当局和规则发生深刻的变化。鉴于这些变化的复杂性和新颖性，评估社会和生态脆弱性可能减轻或加剧的条件是一项艰巨的挑战，但由于全世界传统的温饱社会面临同样不确定的未来，因此迫切需要评估。 这项研究将评估肯尼亚两个马赛社区向农牧业的过渡如何影响社会生态脆弱性的三个组成部分：生态系统对干旱的敏感性和不断变化的放牧压力；家庭在转型过程中所承受的风险程度；以及社区采用的一系列新规则和做法所提供的应对能力。 本研究采用的方法基于复杂系统理论的进步，可应用于生态系统、人类互动和治理系统等。 这种方法也非常有利，因为它可以利用有关易于测量的小规模相互作用的信息来理解和预测更广泛的趋势，例如在整个社会生态系统层面出现的临界点和阈值。 通过开发基于理论的方法来评估脆弱性的多个维度，这项研究将在理论和现实世界的实证评估之间建立变革性的联系。 它将直接增强科学家理解和解决世界各地出现的其他复杂可持续发展问题的能力。 通过持续的参与和对话，研究程序和结果将与当地社区成员分享，作为赋权和可持续发展规划的工具。与区域学术、发展和保护社区的主要同事的合作关系将确保所开发的研究工具将增强其他可持续发展倡议和研究项目的方法和影响。该项目的指导博士生和博士后将获得独特的学习经验，了解科学与社会合作对高影响力研究成果的价值。 该项目得到了 NSF 自然与人类耦合系统动力学 (CNH) 计划的支持。