Collaborative Research: Climate Change, Cannibalism, and Reproductive Synchrony: The Effect of Food Shortages on Life History Strategies of Marine Organisms

与气候变化相关的较高温度可能会导致海洋食物网的变化，导致主要消费者的食物供应减少。作为回应，这些消费物种必须改变策略和行为才能适应。在许多物种中观察到的一个变化是食人现象的增加。另一个是生殖活动的时机。这样的变化反过来会导致整个生态系统的一连串变化，影响到个别物种的生存和整个系统的福祉。厄尔尼诺现象在短时间尺度上模拟了长期气候变化的一些特征，使一些与气候有关的假说能够在海洋系统中得到检验。该项目将使用数学模型在理论上和在作为重要指示物种的一大群海鸟身上从经验上研究与气候变化有关的食物短缺对生物体的影响。这项工作将为本科生、硕士和博士生提供跨学科的数学生物学培训。该项目强调培训本科生和来自代表性不足群体的成员。本科生将参与研究过程的每个阶段，从数据收集和分析到共同撰写同行评议的出版物。调查人员通过公开讲座和采访，以及与美国鱼类和野生动物管理局的生物学家和管理人员合作，让普通公众和野生动物管理人员参与进来。这项工作的结果对于管理自然种群对气候变化的响应具有重要的意义。在以前的工作中，研究人员证明了(1)海洋表面温度(SST)的上升与苍鸥(Larus Glucescens)吃卵的增加之间存在强烈的正相关，这是海洋环境质量的重要指标；(2)苍鸥存在每隔一天排卵的同步性，同步程度与群体密度成正比。概念验证数学模型表明，这两个特征可能是共同适应的，一般来说，SST的上升可能会引发殖民地海鸟生活史策略的一系列变化。本研究的目的是(1)建立和分析一般数学模型，从种群和对食物可获得性变化的适应性动态反应的角度探讨SST、环境可获得性降低、自相残杀和生殖同步性之间的相互作用；(2)在特定系统中进行实地测试，预测与数学模型提出的两个一般假设相关联，即：自相残食是对食物供应减少的适应性反应，这可能是SST增加的结果，生殖同步是对自相残食的适应性反应；以及(3)培养本科生、硕士和博士生从事跨学科的STEM研究，包括数学建模和实地研究，有意强调对代表性不足群体的培训。

Higher temperatures associated with climate change can cause changes in marine food webs, resulting in a diminished food supply for top consumers. In response, these consumer species must change strategies and behaviors in order to adapt. One change that has been observed in numerous species is an increase in cannibalism. Another is the timing of reproductive activities. Such changes can in turn lead to a cascade of changes throughout an ecosystem, affecting survival of individual species and the well-being of the entire system. El Niño events mimic some features of long-term climate change on short time scales, allowing for tests of some climate-related hypotheses in marine systems. This project will examine the impact of climate-change-related food shortages on organisms both theoretically, using mathematical models, and empirically, at a large colony of seabirds that function as an important indicator species. The work will provide cross-disciplinary training in mathematical biology for undergraduate, masters, and Ph.D. students. The project emphasizes training undergraduates and members from underrepresented groups. Undergraduate students will be involved at every stage of the research process, from data collection and analysis to joint authorship of peer-reviewed publications. The investigators engage the general public and wildlife managers through public lectures and interviews, and by working with biologists and managers from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The results of this work have important implications for the management of natural populations responding to climate change.In previous work the investigators demonstrated (1) a strong positive association between rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and increased egg cannibalism in glaucous-winged gulls (Larus glaucescens), which are important indicators of marine environmental quality; and (2) the existence of every-other-day ovulation synchrony in glaucous-winged gulls, with the degree of synchronization proportional to colony density. Proof-of-concept mathematical models suggest that the two traits may be co-adaptive, and that, in general, rising SSTs may initiate a cascade of changes in life history strategies in colonial seabirds. The objectives of this study are to (1) develop and analyze general mathematical models for exploring the interaction of SSTs, reduced environmental food availability, cannibalism, and reproductive synchrony in terms of population and adaptive dynamic responses to changes in food availability; (2) field test, in a specific system, predictions associated with two general hypotheses suggested by the mathematical models, namely, that cannibalism is an adaptive response to decreased food supply, which can be a consequence of increased SST, and that reproductive synchrony is an adaptive response to cannibalism; and (3) train undergraduate, master's, and Ph.D. students in interdisciplinary STEM research involving mathematical modeling and field research, intentionally emphasizing the training of underrepresented groups.