Collaborative Research: Climate Change, Cannibalism, and Reproductive Synchrony: The Effect of Food Shortages on Life History Strategies of Marine Organisms

合作研究：气候变化、同类相食和繁殖同步：食物短缺对海洋生物生命史策略的影响

• 批准号: 1407564
• 负责人: Jim Cushing
• 金额: $ 30万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2020-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1407564&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Climate; Change; Cannibalism

Higher temperatures associated with climate change can cause changes in marine food webs, resulting in a diminished food supply for top consumers. In response, these consumer species must change strategies and behaviors in order to adapt. One change that has been observed in numerous species is an increase in cannibalism. Another is the timing of reproductive activities. Such changes can in turn lead to a cascade of changes throughout an ecosystem, affecting survival of individual species and the well-being of the entire system. El Niño events mimic some features of long-term climate change on short time scales, allowing for tests of some climate-related hypotheses in marine systems. This project will examine the impact of climate-change-related food shortages on organisms both theoretically, using mathematical models, and empirically, at a large colony of seabirds that function as an important indicator species. The work will provide cross-disciplinary training in mathematical biology for undergraduate, masters, and Ph.D. students. The project emphasizes training undergraduates and members from underrepresented groups. Undergraduate students will be involved at every stage of the research process, from data collection and analysis to joint authorship of peer-reviewed publications. The investigators engage the general public and wildlife managers through public lectures and interviews, and by working with biologists and managers from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The results of this work have important implications for the management of natural populations responding to climate change.In previous work the investigators demonstrated (1) a strong positive association between rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and increased egg cannibalism in glaucous-winged gulls (Larus glaucescens), which are important indicators of marine environmental quality; and (2) the existence of every-other-day ovulation synchrony in glaucous-winged gulls, with the degree of synchronization proportional to colony density. Proof-of-concept mathematical models suggest that the two traits may be co-adaptive, and that, in general, rising SSTs may initiate a cascade of changes in life history strategies in colonial seabirds. The objectives of this study are to (1) develop and analyze general mathematical models for exploring the interaction of SSTs, reduced environmental food availability, cannibalism, and reproductive synchrony in terms of population and adaptive dynamic responses to changes in food availability; (2) field test, in a specific system, predictions associated with two general hypotheses suggested by the mathematical models, namely, that cannibalism is an adaptive response to decreased food supply, which can be a consequence of increased SST, and that reproductive synchrony is an adaptive response to cannibalism; and (3) train undergraduate, master's, and Ph.D. students in interdisciplinary STEM research involving mathematical modeling and field research, intentionally emphasizing the training of underrepresented groups.

与气候变化相关的较高温度会导致海洋食物网的变化，从而导致顶级消费者的粮食供应降低。作为回应，这些消费物种必须改变策略和行为才能适应。在许多物种中观察到的一种变化是食人的增加。另一个是生殖活动的时机。这种变化反过来可能导致整个生态系统的级联变化，影响单个物种的存活和整个系统的福祉。厄尔尼诺事件模仿了短期气候变化的某些特征，可以在海洋系统中对某些与气候相关的假设进行测试。该项目将研究与气候变化相关的食物短缺对理论，使用数学模型以及经验上的生物的影响，以及在大型海鸟菌落中起作用，这些菌落起着重要的指示物种的作用。这项工作将为本科，硕士和博士学位提供数学生物学的跨学科培训。学生。该项目强调了培训本科生和代表性不足的群体的成员。从数据收集和分析到同行评审出版物的共同作者，本科生将参与研究过程的每个阶段。调查人员通过公开讲座和访谈与公众和野生动植物经理一起与美国鱼类和野生动物服务局的生物学家和经理合作。这项工作的结果对应对气候变化的自然种群的管理具有重要意义。 （2）在青光翼吉他中存在每日排卵同步，其程度与菌落密度成正比。概念验证的数学模型表明，这两个特征可能是共同适应的，通常，SST上升可能会引发一系列殖民海鸟生活历史策略的变化。这项研究的目标是（1）开发和分析一般数学模型，以探索SST的相互作用，降低环境食物的可用性，食人族和生殖同步，以及对食物可用性变化的自适应动态反应； （2）在特定系统中，现场测试与数学模型提出的两个一般假设相关的预测，即，食人症是对食物供应下降的适应性反应，这可能是SST增加的结果，而生殖同步是对食物供应的结果，是对食物的适应性反应； （3）训练本科，硕士和博士学位。跨学科STEM研究的学生涉及数学建模和现场研究，故意强调了代表性不足的群体的培训。