EaSM-3: Land Use Change and Land Atmosphere Feedback Processes as Regulators of Regional Climate Change

EaSM-3：土地利用变化和土地大气反馈过程作为区域气候变化的调节因素

• 批准号: 1419445
• 负责人: Paul Dirmeyer
• 金额: $ 78万
• 依托单位: George Mason University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-08-01 至 2020-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1419445&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EaSM; Land; Use; Change; Atmosphere

Changes in land use and land cover, such as converting forests to cropland or irrigating formerly dry areas, are known to impact climate on the local and regional level. There is some indication from prior modeling studies that the land-atmosphere interactions that cause these climate impacts will become more pronounced in a warming world. In order to further study this concept, researchers will perform simulations using advanced numerical models and compare those results to observational data to assess how the models are performing. This study will impact society by providing better information to policymakers about the impact of future land use changes. The project would also provide an opportunity to train the next generation of scientists through the inclusion of a graduate student and a postdoctoral researcher in the study.The researchers hypothesize that the rate of climate change, frequency and severity of extremes, and predictability of climate variations will depend on the type of regional land use practices implemented in the coming decades. While the study of land use land cover change (LULCC) impacts on climate are not new, this project is starting from a point where the model consensus is that there will be a strengthened coupling between land and atmosphere in a warming climate. This result would mean that climate may become more sensitive to both natural and anthropogenic variations at the land surface. Two main hypotheses will be addressed: 1) Regions of strong land-atmosphere feedback in the physical climate system will evolve significantly in a changing climate, and 2) regionally, the rate of climate change, the frequency and severity of extremes, and the predictability of climate variability will be dependent on the type of land use practices implemented in the coming decades. To address these hypotheses, the PIs plan to use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a focus on the Community Land Model (CLM) and Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). A variety of observational data would be used to validate the models.

众所周知，土地使用和土地覆盖的变化，例如将森林改为农田或灌溉以前干旱的地区，会影响地方和区域一级的气候。 从先前的模拟研究中有一些迹象表明，在一个变暖的世界中，导致这些气候影响的陆地-大气相互作用将变得更加明显。 为了进一步研究这一概念，研究人员将使用先进的数值模型进行模拟，并将这些结果与观测数据进行比较，以评估模型的性能。 这项研究将通过向决策者提供有关未来土地利用变化影响的更好信息来影响社会。 该项目还将提供一个机会，通过纳入研究的研究生和博士后研究员培养下一代的科学家。研究人员假设，气候变化的速度，频率和极端的严重性，以及气候变化的可预测性将取决于类型的区域土地使用的做法，在未来几十年实施。 虽然土地利用/土地覆被变化（LULCC）对气候影响的研究并不新鲜，但该项目的出发点是，在气候变暖的情况下，土地和大气之间的耦合将得到加强。 这一结果意味着气候可能对陆地表面的自然和人为变化更加敏感。 将讨论两个主要的假设：1）在物理气候系统中强烈的陆地-大气反馈区域将在气候变化中发生显著变化，2）在区域范围内，气候变化的速度，极端事件的频率和严重程度，以及气候变异的可预测性将取决于未来几十年实施的土地利用实践的类型。 为了解决这些假设，PI计划使用社区地球系统模型（CESM），重点是社区土地模型（CLM）和社区大气模型（CAM）。 各种观测数据将用于验证模型。