Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Effects of Climatic Volatility on Economic Conditions and Voter Behavior in Africa

这个项目调查了非洲民主和政治稳定研究中的两个紧迫问题：非洲人的投票是否基于他们的经济福利，以及气候波动引起的经济影响如何影响人们的行为？虽然气候引发的冲突、抗议和移民已经被研究过，但还没有研究调查过气候条件对民主实践的可能影响。这项研究解决了政策制定者和外交政策专家的重要问题：与极端天气事件相关的经济冲击会影响选举政治吗？这些冲击会如何改变非洲的民主？知识价值：该项目的知识价值与它将经济投票理论与经济条件的潜在气候原因联系起来有关。由于撒哈拉以南非洲人口的经济福祉依赖自给农业，经济活动基础受到的冲击可能会影响投票的决定。为了解决经济投票的问题，反常天气被用作经济冲击的代理，以揭示经济状况的冲击是否会改变选民的行为。鉴于目前对整个次大陆天气波动加剧的预测，这些动态与第二个问题有关。了解选民对天气变化的反应将有助于洞察未来可能的动态。在经验方面，该项目将构建一个新颖的次国家级选举数据库，其中包含撒哈拉以南国家过去的地区级选举结果和投票率数据。该数据库将与行政边界的空间数据相结合，以包括地区水平的温度和降雨异常。在可能的情况下，将包括财政数据，以反映政府对恶劣经济状况的反应。更广泛的影响：气候影响自然系统和社会系统，气候条件的波动可能极大地改变这些系统。该项目旨在审查这种变化对世界上往往缺乏民主稳定和最容易受到气候变化的严酷现实影响的地区的民主行为可能产生的影响。对资源稀缺能够改变选举结果和影响政治动荡的机制有一个严格的、有理论依据的理解，将有助于援助国和政策制定者更好地将资源和政策用于更有效的人道主义目标。此外，如果非洲人在很大程度上根据经济福利进行投票，那么破坏就业和收入来源的极端天气条件可能会影响民主发展的进程。这些发现对促进民主的实践者至关重要。

This project investigates two pressing questions in the study of democracy and political stability in Africa: do Africans vote based upon their economic well-being, and how do economic effects induced by climatic volatility affect behavior? While climate-induced conflict, protest, and migration have been studied, no research has yet investigated the possible effects of climatic conditions on democratic practices. The research addresses questions of importance to policy-makers and foreign policy specialists: Will economic shocks associated with extreme weather events affect electoral politics, and how might these shocks alter African democracies?Intellectual Merit: The intellectual merit of the project is associated with its connection of theories of economic voting to underlying climatic causes of economic conditions. Because populations in sub-Saharan Africa rely upon subsistence agriculture for their economic well-being, shocks to the foundation of economic activity could influence decisions at the polls. To address the question of economic voting, abnormal weather is used as a proxy for economic shocks to uncover whether shocks to economic conditions alter voter behavior. These dynamics are linked to the second question given current projections for increasing weather volatility across the sub-continent. Understanding voters' responses to weather variation will help provide insight into possible future dynamics. Empirically, the project will construct a novel, sub-national electoral database containing past district-level electoral results and turnout data from sub-Saharan nations. This database will be coupled with spatial data on administrative boundaries to include district-level temperature and rainfall abnormalities. Where available, fiscal data will be included to capture government responsiveness to poor economic conditions. Broader Impacts: Climate affects physical and social systems, and volatility in climatic conditions may dramatically alter these systems. The project seeks to examine the possible effects such change may have on democratic behavior in a region of the world often lacking democratic stability and most susceptible to the harsh realities of volatile climate patterns. A rigorous, theoretically informed understanding of the mechanisms through which resource scarcity can alter electoral outcomes and affect political volatility will help aid donors and policy-makers better target their resources and policies towards more efficient humanitarian goals. Moreover, if Africans vote heavily based on economic well-being, extreme weather conditions that disrupt sources of jobs and income could influence the course of democratic development. These findings will be of critical importance to democracy promotion practitioners.