Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Effects of Climatic Volatility on Economic Conditions and Voter Behavior in Africa

政治学博士论文研究：气候波动对非洲经济状况和选民行为的影响

• 批准号: 1424091
• 负责人: Clark Gibson
• 金额: $ 1.76万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-08-01 至 2015-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1424091&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

This project investigates two pressing questions in the study of democracy and political stability in Africa: do Africans vote based upon their economic well-being, and how do economic effects induced by climatic volatility affect behavior? While climate-induced conflict, protest, and migration have been studied, no research has yet investigated the possible effects of climatic conditions on democratic practices. The research addresses questions of importance to policy-makers and foreign policy specialists: Will economic shocks associated with extreme weather events affect electoral politics, and how might these shocks alter African democracies?Intellectual Merit: The intellectual merit of the project is associated with its connection of theories of economic voting to underlying climatic causes of economic conditions. Because populations in sub-Saharan Africa rely upon subsistence agriculture for their economic well-being, shocks to the foundation of economic activity could influence decisions at the polls. To address the question of economic voting, abnormal weather is used as a proxy for economic shocks to uncover whether shocks to economic conditions alter voter behavior. These dynamics are linked to the second question given current projections for increasing weather volatility across the sub-continent. Understanding voters' responses to weather variation will help provide insight into possible future dynamics. Empirically, the project will construct a novel, sub-national electoral database containing past district-level electoral results and turnout data from sub-Saharan nations. This database will be coupled with spatial data on administrative boundaries to include district-level temperature and rainfall abnormalities. Where available, fiscal data will be included to capture government responsiveness to poor economic conditions. Broader Impacts: Climate affects physical and social systems, and volatility in climatic conditions may dramatically alter these systems. The project seeks to examine the possible effects such change may have on democratic behavior in a region of the world often lacking democratic stability and most susceptible to the harsh realities of volatile climate patterns. A rigorous, theoretically informed understanding of the mechanisms through which resource scarcity can alter electoral outcomes and affect political volatility will help aid donors and policy-makers better target their resources and policies towards more efficient humanitarian goals. Moreover, if Africans vote heavily based on economic well-being, extreme weather conditions that disrupt sources of jobs and income could influence the course of democratic development. These findings will be of critical importance to democracy promotion practitioners.

该项目调查了非洲民主和政治稳定研究中的两个紧迫问题：非洲人是否根据其经济福祉进行投票，以及气候波动引起的经济影响如何影响行为？尽管已经研究了气候引起的冲突、抗议和移民，但尚未有研究调查气候条件对民主实践可能产生的影响。该研究解决了对政策制定者和外交政策专家来说很重要的问题：与极端天气事件相关的经济冲击是否会影响选举政治，这些冲击可能如何改变非洲民主？ 学术价值：该项目的学术价值在于其将经济投票理论与经济状况的潜在气候原因联系起来。由于撒哈拉以南非洲地区的人口依靠自给农业来维持经济福祉，因此对经济活动基础的冲击可能会影响民意调查的决定。为了解决经济投票问题，异常天气被用作经济冲击的替代指标，以揭示经济状况的冲击是否会改变选民的行为。鉴于目前对整个次大陆天气波动性加剧的预测，这些动态与第二个问题相关。了解选民对天气变化的反应将有助于洞察未来可能的动态。根据经验，该项目将构建一个新颖的次国家选举数据库，其中包含过去的地区级选举结果和撒哈拉以南非洲国家的投票率数据。该数据库将与行政边界的空间数据相结合，包括地区温度和降雨异常情况。如果有的话，将包括财政数据，以反映政府对不良经济状况的反应。更广泛的影响：气候影响自然和社会系统，气候条件的波动可能会极大地改变这些系统。该项目旨在研究这种变化可能对世界上一个经常缺乏民主稳定且最容易受到不稳定气候模式严酷现实影响的地区的民主行为产生的影响。对资源稀缺改变选举结果和影响政治波动的机制进行严格、理论上的了解，将有助于援助捐助者和政策制定者更好地调整其资源和政策，以实现更有效的人道主义目标。此外，如果非洲人的投票主要基于经济福祉，那么破坏就业和收入来源的极端天气条件可能会影响民主发展的进程。这些发现对于民主促进实践者至关重要。