Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Effects of Climatic Volatility on Economic Conditions and Voter Behavior in Africa

政治学博士论文研究：气候波动对非洲经济状况和选民行为的影响

• 批准号: 1424091
• 负责人: Clark Gibson
• 金额: $ 1.76万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-08-01 至 2015-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1424091&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

This project investigates two pressing questions in the study of democracy and political stability in Africa: do Africans vote based upon their economic well-being, and how do economic effects induced by climatic volatility affect behavior? While climate-induced conflict, protest, and migration have been studied, no research has yet investigated the possible effects of climatic conditions on democratic practices. The research addresses questions of importance to policy-makers and foreign policy specialists: Will economic shocks associated with extreme weather events affect electoral politics, and how might these shocks alter African democracies?Intellectual Merit: The intellectual merit of the project is associated with its connection of theories of economic voting to underlying climatic causes of economic conditions. Because populations in sub-Saharan Africa rely upon subsistence agriculture for their economic well-being, shocks to the foundation of economic activity could influence decisions at the polls. To address the question of economic voting, abnormal weather is used as a proxy for economic shocks to uncover whether shocks to economic conditions alter voter behavior. These dynamics are linked to the second question given current projections for increasing weather volatility across the sub-continent. Understanding voters' responses to weather variation will help provide insight into possible future dynamics. Empirically, the project will construct a novel, sub-national electoral database containing past district-level electoral results and turnout data from sub-Saharan nations. This database will be coupled with spatial data on administrative boundaries to include district-level temperature and rainfall abnormalities. Where available, fiscal data will be included to capture government responsiveness to poor economic conditions. Broader Impacts: Climate affects physical and social systems, and volatility in climatic conditions may dramatically alter these systems. The project seeks to examine the possible effects such change may have on democratic behavior in a region of the world often lacking democratic stability and most susceptible to the harsh realities of volatile climate patterns. A rigorous, theoretically informed understanding of the mechanisms through which resource scarcity can alter electoral outcomes and affect political volatility will help aid donors and policy-makers better target their resources and policies towards more efficient humanitarian goals. Moreover, if Africans vote heavily based on economic well-being, extreme weather conditions that disrupt sources of jobs and income could influence the course of democratic development. These findings will be of critical importance to democracy promotion practitioners.

该项目在非洲的民主和政治稳定研究中调查了两个紧迫的问题：非洲人是否基于他们的经济福祉进行投票，气候波动引起的经济影响如何影响行为？尽管已经研究了气候引起的冲突，抗议和移民，但尚未研究气候条件对民主实践的可能影响。该研究解决了对政策制定者和外交政策专家的重要性问题：与极端天气事件相关的经济冲击会影响选举政治，这些冲击会如何改变非洲民主国家？知识分子的优点：该项目的知识分子优点与其与经济投票的理论有关与经济条件的潜在气候造成的理论有关。由于撒哈拉以南非洲的人口依靠生存农业来实现经济福祉，因此对经济活动的基础的震惊可能会影响民意调查的决策。为了解决经济投票的问题，异常天气被用作经济冲击的代理，以发现对经济状况的冲击是否改变了选民行为。考虑到当前的次大陆天气波动的当前预测，这些动态与第二个问题有关。了解选民对天气变化的反应将有助于洞悉可能的未来动态。从经验上讲，该项目将构建一个新颖的次国选举数据库，其中包含来自撒哈拉以南国家的过去地区选举结果和投票率数据。该数据库将与有关行政边界的空间数据结合在一起，包括地区级温度和降雨异常。在可用的地方，将包括财政数据，以捕获政府对糟糕的经济状况的反应。更广泛的影响：气候影响物理和社会系统，气候条件下的波动可能会大大改变这些系统。该项目旨在检查这种变化可能对世界上缺乏民主稳定的民主行为产生的影响，并且最容易受到挥发性气候模式的严酷现实的影响。严格的，理论上知情的了解资源稀缺可以改变选举结果并影响政治动荡的机制，将有助于帮助捐助者和政策制定者更好地针对他们的资源和政策，以实现更有效的人道主义目标。此外，如果非洲人基于经济福祉进行大量投票，那么破坏工作和收入来源的极端天气就可能会影响民主发展的进程。这些发现对于民主促进从业者来说至关重要。