SGER: Explaining the African Vote: an Exit Poll in Ghana

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In Ghana, where once observers expected an orderly affair, the electoral process is now significantly challenged by voter registration problems, the promise of billions of dollars worth of oil revenue, the example of Kenya's stolen election, the use of ethnic appeals in campaigns, and the probability of a single percentage point victory for one of the main parties. The irregularities and violence surrounding Kenya's recent election demonstrates the danger of presuming quiescence when a nascent democracy holds an election. These issues have heightened tension between the parties and within the electorate. Undertaking an exit poll for the Ghanaian election will increase knowledge of the determinants of the African vote. Conventional wisdom is that Africans vote largely upon ethnic lines. We argue that this picture is very far from complete. Recent exit poll results in Kenya demonstrates that African voters are quite similar to those in the industrial democracies -- they use many sources of information to inform their vote, ethnicity being only one. Many voters did rely on ethnicity to inform their vote, but many did not. In fact, a surprising number of Kenyans chose their candidate on the basis of government performance. Most seem to use the information of ethnicity and performance to make their choices. Surprisingly, studies of Africa's democracies and electorate use very little systematic data in their exploration of the continent's voters. And yet, the US government -- as well as other countries -- spends millions of dollars promoting democracy in Africa, and yet knowledge of the motivations of African voters remains murky, and is generally drawn from anecdote, a small number of cases, or surveys that are not part of the actual electoral process. Few scholars to this point have employed the most powerful tool to measure voter intention and checks against fraud: the exit poll. Ghana is considered on its way to being a stable democracy, so understanding the motivations of its voters opens the way to a deeper understanding of African politics. The events and issues that surround the election can inform us as to how citizens vote. By conducting an exit poll in Ghana, the micro-foundation of African Voting can be explored in a manner that existing work does not address. This approach has the potential to transform the study of ethnicity and politics in Africa. Broader impacts: This project will put four graduate students and one undergraduate student in the field. The knowledge they will receive through helping to construct, manage, and analyze this exit poll is precisely what they need to advance training beyond the classroom. For two of the students, it will be their first experience in Africa. For all, it will be the first time they are involved in generating primary data. We will also help in the training of hundreds of enumerators in Ghana. Finally, the poll can also provide another check on the official results which may prove unreliable.