Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: How Do Voters Decide? Ethnicity and Performance in African Elections

政治学博士论文研究：选民如何决定？

• 批准号: 0718782
• 负责人: Clark Gibson
• 金额: $ 1.2万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-08-01 至 2008-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0718782&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

Primary Investigators: Clark C. Gibson and James D. LongTitle: Doctoral Dissertation Research: How do Voters Decide? Ethnicity and Performance in African Elections0718782AbstractOn what bases do African citizens choose leaders in democratic elections? African elections are typically understood as highly ethnic, where candidates appeal to voters by inciting ethnic fear or using selective incentives such as patronage to attract support from co-ethnics. The study advances our understanding of African voting behavior by identifying when, where and in what ways ethnicity and performance matter, either separately or in conjunction. Consequently, this will demonstrate whether politicians pursue policies, goods, and services directed at their own ethnic group or more broadly to the district or nation. If ethnic hypotheses are correct, co-ethnics will be returned to office time and again and narrowly target policies towards their group. If performance hypotheses are correct, poor performers will be thrown out of office and politicians will be encouraged to pursue policies targeted towards co-ethnics and non-ethnics alike.In order to understand whether and how ethnicity and performance matter to voting, this study proposes a post-election survey of Kenya's upcoming December 2007 election. It will consist of randomly chosen voters from precincts in a nationally representative sample. The survey will ask questions regarding ethnicity, evaluations of performance, and vote choice for candidates in local and national elections. The study makes empirical and methodological improvements upon current studies by using novel individual level survey data. Rather than postulate the effects of ethnicity or performance at the group level, the survey allows for robust and direct tests of these variables in determining an individual's vote. Performing the study for local and national elections allows for separate tests using different electoral units that vary over a number of characteristics. It provides a better measure of performance than extant studies, understood as the delivery of local public services that result from taxation. Through randomization, the survey also avoids problems of selection bias that plague other studies. Such data will allow me to test separate hypotheses concerning the independent effects of ethnicity and performance, as well as the ways in which the two interact. The broader impact of this project has important implications for development in multi-ethnic and poor countries. The results of this study can provide politicians, policymakers and donors with critical information regarding the relationship between citizens and leaders over issues of ethnicity, performance, public services, and taxation. If performance theories are correct, elections are the prime mechanism that induces accountability on the part of politicians. These policies may in turn become the engine to sustained economic growth and development. If ethnic theories are correct, we might expect skewed policy biases that are harmful for progress over the long-run. This is especially true at the local level, where scholars and policymakers increasingly view local government as the potential catalyst for development.

主要研究人员：克拉克·吉布森（Clark C. Gibson）和詹姆斯·D·朗特（James D.非洲选举中的种族和表现0718782ABSTRACTON非洲公民在民主选举中选择领导人哪些基础？ 非洲选举通常被理解为高度种族，候选人通过煽动种族恐惧或使用选择性激励措施（例如赞助人）吸引共同埃塞特尼人的支持来吸引选民。 这项研究通过识别何时，何地和以什么方式分别或共同识别种族和绩效的何时，何处和以什么方式来促进我们对非洲投票行为的理解。 因此，这将证明政客是否寻求针对自己的族裔或更广泛地针对地区或国家的政策，商品和服务。 如果种族假设是正确的，那么共同人士将一次又一次地返回办公室，并将狭窄的政策针对他们的群体。 如果表现假设是正确的，则表现不佳的人将被抛弃，政治家将被鼓励采取针对同事和非埃人的政策。 它将由全国代表性样本中的区域中随机选择的选民组成。 该调查将提出有关种族，评估绩效评估以及对地方和国家选举中候选人的投票选择的问题。 该研究通过使用新型的个人水平调查数据对当前研究进行了经验和方法学的改进。 该调查不是在小组级别上假设种族或绩效的影响，而是可以在确定个人投票时对这些变量进行稳健和直接测试。 进行本地和全国选举的研究允许使用各种特征不同的不同选举单位进行单独的测试。 它提供了比现有研究更好的绩效衡量标准，这被理解为税收造成的当地公共服务的交付。 通过随机分组，该调查还避免了困扰其他研究的选择偏差问题。 这些数据将使我能够检验有关种族和绩效独立影响的单独假设，以及两者相互作用的方式。该项目的更广泛影响对多种族和穷国的发展具有重要意义。 这项研究的结果可以为政客，政策制定者和捐助者提供有关公民与领导人之间关于种族，绩效，公共服务和税收问题的关键信息。 如果表现理论是正确的，则选举是引起政客问责制的主要机制。 这些政策反过来可能成为持续经济增长和发展的引擎。 如果种族理论是正确的，我们可能会期望偏斜的政策偏见对长期进步有害。在地方一级尤其如此，学者和政策制定者越来越多地将地方政府视为潜在的发展催化剂。