Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Impact of Foreign Aid on Democracy

政治学博士论文研究：外援对民主的影响

• 批准号: 0420103
• 负责人: Clark Gibson
• 金额: $ 1.2万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-09-01 至 2005-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0420103&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

How does foreign aid affect politics in aid-recipient countries? Although political reform is increasingly central to aid programs, foreign assistance appears to be undermining democracy (e.g., Brautigam 2001; Knack 2001; Remmer 2004). Despite evidence that suggests aid leads to the erosion of democratic institutions, remarkably little is known about the causal links. On the one hand, aid-recipient governments may be using aid as a form of patronage (Moore 1998; Remmer 2004). On the other hand, conditions on aid may force aid-recipient governments to treat aid donors as a constituency (Craig and Porter 2003; Knack and Rahman 2003; Waal 1997). The intellectual merit of this study is clear because these hypotheses have not been synthesized to develop a coherent theory of the political impact of foreign aid. Now is a crucial moment to examine how aid impacts domestic politics because after nearly a decade of declining aid flows, donors are increasing their aid budgets and explicitly are conditioning aid on democratic reforms (see Crawford 2001; Doornbos 2001; Radelet 2003; UNDP 2002; World Bank 2003). In order to investigate how aid may be undermining democratic institutions, this project proposes a country case study of Tanzania, one of the world.s largest recipients of foreign aid. The research will consist of qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis will examine if sub-national variation in aid flows can help explain sub-national variation in citizens. perceptions of government accountability. Completing the quantitative analysis requires combining data on sub-national aid distribution with existing sub-national public opinion data on perceptions of democracy and government effectiveness. The qualitative analysis will consist of interviews with government officials, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), and leading opposition political figures in three regions: a region that receives high aid flows (Arusha), a region that receives intermediate aid flows (Iringa), and a region that receives low aid flows (Rukwa). The purpose of the interviews is to investigate the hypothesized causal mechanisms that link variation in aid flows to differences in perceptions of government accountability more deeply existing survey data permits. The core hypothesis is that in Tanzania, sub-national governments which receive larger aid flows will be less responsive to citizen demands than governments receiving less aid. The project requires conducting research for approximately one year. Two to three months will be used to collect data on sub-national aid distribution in Dar es Salaam, where most aid agencies and government ministries have their headquarters. Nine to ten months will be used for regional interviews. To complete comprehensive interviews will require spending approximately two weeks in each of the fifteen districts that comprise the three regions and conducting between fifteen and twenty interviews per district. The results of the study will have unambiguous implications for aid program design. While existing studies suggest that foreign aid is weakening democratic institutions, the results of these studies do not make clear why aid may be undermining democracy nor do they provide donors with guidance they need to redesign aid programs to mitigate unintended political consequences and promote democratic reform. Consequently, the broader impact of this project is clear: because the results of the study will clarify the political effects of existing aid programs, the results will provide donors with the analysis needed to make more informed decisions with regard to the role their foreign aid plays in mediating relations between recipient governments and their citizens.

外国援助如何影响受援国的政治？ 尽管政治改革在援助计划中越来越重要，但外国援助似乎正在破坏民主（例如，Brautigam 2001; Knack 2001; Remmer 2004）。 尽管有证据表明援助导致民主制度的侵蚀，但人们对其中的因果关系知之甚少。 一方面，受援国政府可能将援助作为一种赞助形式（摩尔1998; Remmer 2004）。 另一方面，援助条件可能迫使受援国政府将援助捐助国视为一个选区（克雷格和波特，2003年;纳克和拉赫曼，2003年;瓦尔，1997年）。 这项研究的学术价值是显而易见的，因为这些假设还没有综合起来，发展出一个连贯的理论，外国援助的政治影响。 现在是审查援助如何影响国内政治的关键时刻，因为在近十年的援助流量下降之后，捐助者正在增加其援助预算，并明确将民主改革作为援助的条件（见Crawford 2001; Doornbos 2001; Radelet 2003;开发计划署2002;世界银行2003）。 为了调查援助如何破坏民主制度，本项目提出了一个坦桑尼亚的国家案例研究，坦桑尼亚是世界上最大的外国援助接受国之一。 研究将包括定性和定量分析。 定量分析将审查国家以下一级援助流量的差异是否有助于解释国家以下一级公民的差异。对政府问责的认识。 要完成定量分析，就必须将国家以下各级援助分配情况的数据与国家以下各级关于民主和政府效力看法的现有民意数据结合起来。 定性分析将包括与三个区域的政府官员、非政府组织和主要反对派政治人物进行访谈：一个区域接受大量援助（阿鲁沙），一个区域接受中等援助（伊林加），一个区域接受少量援助（鲁夸河）。 访谈的目的是调查假设的因果机制，联系在援助流量的变化，政府问责制的看法更深入现有的调查数据允许的差异。 核心假设是，在坦桑尼亚，接受较大援助流量的次国家政府将比接受较少援助的政府对公民需求的反应更少。 该项目需要进行大约一年的研究。 将用两到三个月的时间来收集达累斯萨拉姆国家以下一级援助分配情况的数据，大多数援助机构和政府部委的总部都设在那里。 9至10个月将用于区域面试。 为了完成全面的面谈，将需要在三个大区的15个区中的每一个区花费大约两周的时间，在每个区进行15至20次面谈。 这项研究的结果将对援助计划的设计产生明确的影响。 虽然现有的研究表明，外国援助正在削弱民主制度，但这些研究的结果并没有说明为什么援助可能会破坏民主，也没有为捐助者提供指导，他们需要重新设计援助计划，以减轻意外的政治后果，促进民主改革。 因此，该项目的更广泛影响是显而易见的：因为研究结果将澄清现有援助计划的政治影响，结果将为捐助者提供所需的分析，以便就其对外援助在调解受援国政府与其公民之间关系方面的作用做出更明智的决定。