Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Impact of Foreign Aid on Democracy

外国援助如何影响受援国的政治？尽管政治改革日益成为援助项目的核心，但外国援助似乎正在破坏民主（例如，Brautigam 2001; Knack 2001; Remmer 2004）。尽管有证据表明，援助导致了民主制度的侵蚀，但人们对其中的因果关系知之甚少。一方面，受援国政府可能将援助作为赞助的一种形式（Moore 1998; Remmer 2004）。另一方面，援助条件可能迫使受援国政府将援助国视为选民（Craig and Porter 2003; Knack and Rahman 2003; Waal 1997）。这项研究的学术价值是显而易见的，因为这些假设还没有被综合起来，以形成一个关于外援政治影响的连贯理论。现在是研究援助如何影响国内政治的关键时刻，因为在近十年的援助流量下降之后，捐助国正在增加援助预算，并明确将援助作为民主改革的条件（见Crawford 2001； Doornbos 2001; Radelet 2003; UNDP 2002; World Bank 2003）。为了调查援助是如何破坏民主制度的，这个项目提出了一个坦桑尼亚的国家案例研究，这是世界上的一个国家。中国是美国最大的外援接受国。这项研究将包括定性和定量分析。定量分析将检验援助流动的地方差异是否有助于解释公民的地方差异。对政府问责的认知。完成定量分析需要将地方援助分配数据与现有的地方民意数据结合起来，这些数据涉及对民主和政府效率的看法。定性分析将包括对三个地区的政府官员、非政府组织（ngo）和主要反对派政治人物的访谈：一个接受高援助流量的地区（阿鲁沙）、一个接受中等援助流量的地区（伊林加）和一个接受低援助流量的地区（鲁瓦）。访谈的目的是调查假设的因果机制，这些机制将援助流量的变化与对政府问责的看法的差异联系起来，现有的调查数据允许得更深入。其核心假设是，在坦桑尼亚，与接受较少援助的政府相比，接受较多援助的地方政府对公民需求的反应较差。该项目需要进行大约一年的研究。两到三个月的时间将用于收集达累斯萨拉姆地方援助分配的数据，大多数援助机构和政府部门的总部都设在达累斯萨拉姆。9至10个月将用于区域面试。要完成全面的面谈，将需要在组成三个大区的十五个县中每个县花大约两周时间，每个县进行十五至二十次面谈。这项研究的结果将对援助计划的设计产生明确的影响。虽然现有的研究表明，外国援助正在削弱民主制度，但这些研究的结果并没有明确为什么援助可能会破坏民主，也没有为捐助者提供他们需要的指导，以重新设计援助计划，以减轻意想不到的政治后果，促进民主改革。因此，本项目的广泛影响是明确的：由于研究结果将澄清现有援助项目的政治影响，研究结果将为捐助者提供必要的分析，以便就其对外援助在调解受援国政府与其公民之间的关系方面所起的作用做出更明智的决定。

How does foreign aid affect politics in aid-recipient countries? Although political reform is increasingly central to aid programs, foreign assistance appears to be undermining democracy (e.g., Brautigam 2001; Knack 2001; Remmer 2004). Despite evidence that suggests aid leads to the erosion of democratic institutions, remarkably little is known about the causal links. On the one hand, aid-recipient governments may be using aid as a form of patronage (Moore 1998; Remmer 2004). On the other hand, conditions on aid may force aid-recipient governments to treat aid donors as a constituency (Craig and Porter 2003; Knack and Rahman 2003; Waal 1997). The intellectual merit of this study is clear because these hypotheses have not been synthesized to develop a coherent theory of the political impact of foreign aid. Now is a crucial moment to examine how aid impacts domestic politics because after nearly a decade of declining aid flows, donors are increasing their aid budgets and explicitly are conditioning aid on democratic reforms (see Crawford 2001; Doornbos 2001; Radelet 2003; UNDP 2002; World Bank 2003). In order to investigate how aid may be undermining democratic institutions, this project proposes a country case study of Tanzania, one of the world.s largest recipients of foreign aid. The research will consist of qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis will examine if sub-national variation in aid flows can help explain sub-national variation in citizens. perceptions of government accountability. Completing the quantitative analysis requires combining data on sub-national aid distribution with existing sub-national public opinion data on perceptions of democracy and government effectiveness. The qualitative analysis will consist of interviews with government officials, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), and leading opposition political figures in three regions: a region that receives high aid flows (Arusha), a region that receives intermediate aid flows (Iringa), and a region that receives low aid flows (Rukwa). The purpose of the interviews is to investigate the hypothesized causal mechanisms that link variation in aid flows to differences in perceptions of government accountability more deeply existing survey data permits. The core hypothesis is that in Tanzania, sub-national governments which receive larger aid flows will be less responsive to citizen demands than governments receiving less aid. The project requires conducting research for approximately one year. Two to three months will be used to collect data on sub-national aid distribution in Dar es Salaam, where most aid agencies and government ministries have their headquarters. Nine to ten months will be used for regional interviews. To complete comprehensive interviews will require spending approximately two weeks in each of the fifteen districts that comprise the three regions and conducting between fifteen and twenty interviews per district. The results of the study will have unambiguous implications for aid program design. While existing studies suggest that foreign aid is weakening democratic institutions, the results of these studies do not make clear why aid may be undermining democracy nor do they provide donors with guidance they need to redesign aid programs to mitigate unintended political consequences and promote democratic reform. Consequently, the broader impact of this project is clear: because the results of the study will clarify the political effects of existing aid programs, the results will provide donors with the analysis needed to make more informed decisions with regard to the role their foreign aid plays in mediating relations between recipient governments and their citizens.