Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Impact of Foreign Aid on Democracy

外国援助如何影响受援国的政治？尽管政治改革日益成为援助方案的核心，但外国援助似乎正在破坏民主(例如，Brautigam 2001；Knack 2001；Remmer 2004)。尽管有证据表明，援助会导致民主制度的侵蚀，但人们对其中的因果联系知之甚少。一方面，接受援助的政府可能正在利用援助作为一种赞助形式(Moore 1998；Remmer 2004)。另一方面，援助条件可能迫使受援国政府将援助捐赠者视为支持者(Craig and Porter 2003；Knack and Rahman 2003；Waal 1997)。这项研究的学术价值是显而易见的，因为这些假设还没有被综合起来，以开发出关于外国援助的政治影响的连贯理论。现在是审查援助如何影响国内政治的关键时刻，因为在经历了近十年的援助流量下降之后，捐助者正在增加其援助预算，并明确地将援助以民主改革为条件(见Crawford 2001；Doornbos 2001；Radlet 2003；开发计划署2002；世界银行2003)。为了调查援助可能如何破坏民主制度，该项目提议对坦桑尼亚进行一个国家案例研究，坦桑尼亚是世界上最大的外国援助接受国之一。研究将包括定性和定量分析。定量分析将考察援助流动的次国家差异是否有助于解释公民的次国家差异。对政府责任的看法。要完成量化分析，就需要将关于国家以下各级援助分配的数据与现有的关于民主和政府效力看法的国家以下各级民意数据结合起来。定性分析将包括对三个地区的政府官员、非政府组织和主要反对派政治人物的访谈：一个接受大量援助的地区(阿鲁沙)、一个接受中等援助的地区(伊林加)和一个接受低援助的地区(鲁克瓦)。访谈的目的是调查假设的因果机制，这些机制将援助流量的变化与对政府问责的看法的差异联系在一起，更深入地了解现有的调查数据。核心假设是，在坦桑尼亚，与接受较少援助的政府相比，接受更多援助的地方政府对公民需求的反应较少。该项目需要进行大约一年的研究。将用两到三个月的时间收集达累斯萨拉姆地方援助分配的数据，大多数援助机构和政府部委都设在达累斯萨拉姆。地区面试将用九到十个月的时间。要完成全面面谈，需要在组成这三个区的15个区中的每个区花费大约两周时间，每个区进行15至20次面谈。这项研究的结果将对援助计划的设计产生明确的影响。虽然现有的研究表明，外国援助正在削弱民主制度，但这些研究的结果并不清楚为什么援助可能会破坏民主，也没有为捐赠者提供重新设计援助计划所需的指导，以减轻意想不到的政治后果，促进民主改革。因此，这一项目的更广泛影响是显而易见的：因为研究结果将澄清现有援助方案的政治影响，研究结果将为捐助者提供必要的分析，以便就其对外援助在调解受援国政府与其公民之间的关系方面所起的作用作出更明智的决定。

How does foreign aid affect politics in aid-recipient countries? Although political reform is increasingly central to aid programs, foreign assistance appears to be undermining democracy (e.g., Brautigam 2001; Knack 2001; Remmer 2004). Despite evidence that suggests aid leads to the erosion of democratic institutions, remarkably little is known about the causal links. On the one hand, aid-recipient governments may be using aid as a form of patronage (Moore 1998; Remmer 2004). On the other hand, conditions on aid may force aid-recipient governments to treat aid donors as a constituency (Craig and Porter 2003; Knack and Rahman 2003; Waal 1997). The intellectual merit of this study is clear because these hypotheses have not been synthesized to develop a coherent theory of the political impact of foreign aid. Now is a crucial moment to examine how aid impacts domestic politics because after nearly a decade of declining aid flows, donors are increasing their aid budgets and explicitly are conditioning aid on democratic reforms (see Crawford 2001; Doornbos 2001; Radelet 2003; UNDP 2002; World Bank 2003). In order to investigate how aid may be undermining democratic institutions, this project proposes a country case study of Tanzania, one of the world.s largest recipients of foreign aid. The research will consist of qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis will examine if sub-national variation in aid flows can help explain sub-national variation in citizens. perceptions of government accountability. Completing the quantitative analysis requires combining data on sub-national aid distribution with existing sub-national public opinion data on perceptions of democracy and government effectiveness. The qualitative analysis will consist of interviews with government officials, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), and leading opposition political figures in three regions: a region that receives high aid flows (Arusha), a region that receives intermediate aid flows (Iringa), and a region that receives low aid flows (Rukwa). The purpose of the interviews is to investigate the hypothesized causal mechanisms that link variation in aid flows to differences in perceptions of government accountability more deeply existing survey data permits. The core hypothesis is that in Tanzania, sub-national governments which receive larger aid flows will be less responsive to citizen demands than governments receiving less aid. The project requires conducting research for approximately one year. Two to three months will be used to collect data on sub-national aid distribution in Dar es Salaam, where most aid agencies and government ministries have their headquarters. Nine to ten months will be used for regional interviews. To complete comprehensive interviews will require spending approximately two weeks in each of the fifteen districts that comprise the three regions and conducting between fifteen and twenty interviews per district. The results of the study will have unambiguous implications for aid program design. While existing studies suggest that foreign aid is weakening democratic institutions, the results of these studies do not make clear why aid may be undermining democracy nor do they provide donors with guidance they need to redesign aid programs to mitigate unintended political consequences and promote democratic reform. Consequently, the broader impact of this project is clear: because the results of the study will clarify the political effects of existing aid programs, the results will provide donors with the analysis needed to make more informed decisions with regard to the role their foreign aid plays in mediating relations between recipient governments and their citizens.