Collaborative Research: RIPS Type 2: Quantifying Disaster Resilience of Critical Infrastructure-based Societal Systems with Emergent Behavior and Dynamic Interdependencies

该项目将创建一种方法来衡量社区运作所必需的关键基础设施社会系统（CISSs）的弹性。CISS由相互依存的建筑组成，这些建筑共同服务于社区功能，并依赖于关键生命线网络（水、废水、电力、天然气、通信和网络通信以及交通）。它们是由占用类型、人员、政策、信息、地理位置和/或建筑服务联系在一起的一系列结构，因此也依赖于人员、组织、政治和网络联系。CISS结构的示例包括但不限于学区、医疗保健提供系统、政府大楼、大学校园、酒店设施、住宅楼或中央商务区。该项目将侧重于单一或复合危险事件对国际安全系统的影响。由于物理损坏而导致的初始结构损失可能会蔓延到整个CISS或其支持生命线。随后，这些相互依赖关系是动态的，并随着时间的推移通过人为干预、紧急组织行为和政策变化而变化。最后，维修和变通可以减少危险事件的影响。作为测试，最终的框架和具体技术将在一种类型的CISS上进行演示：医疗保健系统。从这个测试用例中收集到的见解可以应用于改进、构建和维护更有可能承受中断或灾难的社区。这项工作将直接告知执业医疗保健经理和应急计划人员。该项目将独特地将公共政策、组织政策、组织行为和风险沟通纳入对多种灾害的抗灾能力数据的更广泛评估中。本文将采用一种综合方法来描述适应（组织行为）和人为干预在相互依赖动态中的作用。该项目将试图理解和模拟组织行为如何在灾难事件中出现和演变。此外，它将研究网络系统如何增加损害的影响，导致后续攻击的脆弱性，以及防止这种升级的方法。这些方法包括风险沟通策略、使用安全系统和协议以及采取其他适应性行动。将研究组织如何协同工作来模拟和解释现实，以及这将如何改变或改变灾难响应。将衡量战略沟通对弹性的影响。分析将需要动态故障树和具有时变系统状态和变化的复杂自适应系统的建模。它将解决对具有重要维度问题的大规模模型的计算框架的需求。此外，教育和推广任务旨在通过采用“360”指导理念，加强STEM领域多个教育和职业阶段的女性储备，该理念将培养所有年龄段的女性科学家成为高素质的导师。

This project will create a way to measure the resilience of critical infrastructure-based societal systems (CISSs) that are necessary for community functioning. A CISS is comprised of interdependent buildings that together serve a community function and that are dependent on networks of critical lifelines (water, wastewater, power, natural gas, communications and cyber-communications, and transportation). They are a family of structures that are linked by occupancy type, people, policies, information, geographic location, and/or building services, and thus also rely on human, organizational, political, and cyber links. Examples of a CISS structure include, but are not limited to, a school district, a healthcare delivery system, a government building, a university campus, a hospitality facility, a residential building, or a central business district. The project will focus on the impact of single or compound hazardous events on CISSs. The initial loss of a structure due to physical damage can spread throughout the CISS or its supporting lifelines. Subsequently, these interdependencies are dynamic and change over time through human intervention, emergent organizational behaviors, and policy changes. Finally, repairs and work-arounds can diminish the impact of the hazardous event(s). As a test, the resulting framework and specific techniques will be demonstrated on one type of CISS: a healthcare system. Insights gleaned from this test case can be applied to improve, build, and maintain communities that are more likely to withstand disruption or disaster. This effort will directly inform practicing healthcare managers and emergency planners. The project will uniquely incorporate public policy, organizational policy, organizational behaviors and risk communication into a broader assessment of disaster resilience data of multiple hazards. An integrated approach will be used to describe the role of adaptation (organizational behaviors) and human interventions in interdependency dynamics. The project will seek to understand and model how organizational behaviors emerge and evolve during a disaster event. Moreover, it will study how cyber systems increase the impact of damage, resulting vulnerabilities to follow-on attacks, and approaches to prevent such escalation. Such approaches include risk communications strategies, using security systems and protocols, and taking other adaptive actions. How organizations work together to simulate and interpret reality, and how this can shift or change disaster response, will be studied. The impact of strategic communication on resilience will be measured. Analysis will require dynamic fault-tree and modeling of complex, adaptive systems with time-varying system states and changes. It will address the need for a computational framework for a large-scale model with significant dimensionality concerns. Additionally, educational and outreach tasks are aimed at strengthening the pipeline of women in STEM fields at multiple education and career stages by adopting a "360" mentorship philosophy that will foster training of female scientists of all ages to be high-caliber mentors.