Emergency Preparedness Planning and On-Line Evacuation of Large Buildings

大型建筑物的应急准备规划和在线疏散

• 批准号: 0218621
• 负责人: Elise Miller-Hooks
• 金额: $ 30万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-08-15 至 2003-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0218621&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Emergency; Preparedness; Planning; Line; Evacuation

The primary focus of this research activity is the development of the conceptual framework and methodological steps for determining optimal and robust tactical and operational strategies for rapidly evacuating a large burning building or a building that has come under attack by enemy or natural catastrophe. Both emergency preparedness planning and real-time execution are addressed. Tactical preparedness concerns involve the selection of carefully planned a priori evacuation paths that consider the inherent dynamic and uncertain nature of conditions that exist in emergency situations requiring evacuation. Operational concerns address the on-line determination of evacuation paths that are updated in real-time as actual conditions of the building structures and circulation systems (i.e. means of egress) are revealed and predictions related to risk of continued failure concerning the structural members and portions of the circulation systems are updated.The need for modeling the dynamic and uncertain nature of conditions in emergency evacuation stems from the fact that such events are often characterized by dangers that strengthen and spread over time. These circumstances induce the possibility that successful egress may be inhibited by partial or complete failure of key escape paths. Moreover, we cannot know how the situation will progress with certainty even if the exact location and type of event that initiated the need for the evacuation is known. Existing methodologies for determining optimal evacuation paths do not consider this uncertainty and the dynamically varying conditions inherent in post-blast, fire or other situations requiring emergency evacuation. Instructions that do not consider the evolution of damage over time and threats of probable additional destruction and deterioration can result in suboptimal decisions that can lead to unnecessary imposed risk and unnecessary lost lives. The algorithmic developments undertaken in this research effort will explicitly consider these characteristics in determination of the evacuation path strategies, resulting in robust evacuation plans with lower probability of failure than paths determined otherwise. Teaching, training and learning will be enhanced through the development of real-world case studies that will be studied in the classroom and through a comprehensive graduate course related to risk analyses and emergency management. Evacuation plans resulting from the proposed research activities will enable faster and more efficient evacuation of a building in the event of military attack, fire, natural disaster, discovery of a hazardous material or biological agent, or other circumstances warranting quick escape. This will result in reduction in: the number of injured persons, trapped evacuees, or lost lives. The methodologies developed in this research effort will also be pertinent for evaluating existing evacuation plans and for identifying potentially high-risk circumstances. These results will impact many other functional areas as well, including, evacuation of a geographical region due to military attack, human-made accident, or natural disaster, such as an accident involving a nuclear power plant or escape of hazardous chemicals, collapse of a structure such as dam walls, hurricane, earthquake, flooding, volcanic eruption, or tsunami.

这项研究活动的主要重点是制定概念框架和方法步骤，以确定快速疏散着火的大型建筑物或遭受敌人或自然灾害袭击的建筑物的最佳和强有力的战术和作战战略。同时讨论了应急准备计划和实时执行。战术准备问题涉及选择精心规划的先验疏散路径，该路径考虑到需要疏散的紧急情况中存在的条件的内在动态和不确定性。业务问题涉及随着建筑物结构和循环系统的实际状况(即出口方式)的揭示以及与关于结构构件和循环系统部分的持续故障风险相关的预测的更新，实时更新的疏散路径的在线确定。对紧急疏散条件的动态和不确定性进行建模的需要源于这样一个事实，即此类事件的特征通常是随着时间的推移而加强和蔓延的危险。这些情况导致可能会因为关键逃生路径的部分或全部故障而阻止成功的出口。此外，即使知道导致需要撤离的确切地点和事件类型，我们也不能确定局势将如何进展。现有的确定最佳疏散路径的方法没有考虑到这种不确定性以及爆炸后、火灾或其他需要紧急疏散的情况所固有的动态变化的条件。如果指示不考虑损害随时间的演变以及可能的额外破坏和恶化的威胁，则可能导致不最佳的决定，从而可能导致不必要的附加风险和不必要的生命损失。在这项研究中进行的算法开发将在确定疏散路径策略时明确考虑这些特征，从而产生比其他情况下确定的路径具有更低失败概率的稳健的疏散计划。将通过在课堂上学习的真实案例研究以及与风险分析和紧急情况管理有关的综合研究生课程来加强教学、培训和学习。拟议研究活动产生的疏散计划将使建筑物在发生军事攻击、火灾、自然灾害、发现危险材料或生物制剂或其他需要快速逃生的情况时能够更快、更有效地疏散。这将导致以下方面的减少：受伤人员、被困疏散人员或失去的生命。在这项研究工作中制定的方法也将适用于评估现有的疏散计划和确定潜在的高风险情况。这些结果也将影响许多其他功能区，包括因军事攻击、人为事故或自然灾害(如涉及核电站的事故或危险化学品泄漏)、建筑物坍塌(如大坝墙)、飓风、地震、洪水、火山喷发或海啸等造成的地理区域疏散。