NNA Track 1: Arctic impacts and reverberations of expanding global maritime trade routes

NNA 第 1 轨道：北极影响和不断扩大的全球海上贸易路线的影响

• 批准号: 1927785
• 负责人: Elise Miller-Hooks
• 金额: $ 300万
• 依托单位: George Mason University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-08-15 至 2025-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1927785&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NNA; Track; Arctic; impacts; reverberations

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim. As the Arctic thaws, new opportunities for resource exploration and the opening of new trade routes are expected. Increased passage of commodities through these routes and the related industrialization of the Arctic will introduce both opportunities and risks. These will require international agreements and rules of governance to maintain global stability and protect not only the commercial viability of the U.S. Arctic, but also the local peoples, environment, and natural resources. These new opportunities in the Arctic have impacts that reverberate across the globe. This project focuses on creating the mathematical, geophysical, computational, and social knowledge systems needed to understand how the changing Arctic impacts world trade flows and supply chains and to understand the risks to the Arctic's natural and social ecosystems and governance. The research supports U.S. national security interests, addresses global economic welfare, and facilitates greater resilience to new threats to Arctic communities while allowing for sustainable Arctic development and economic growth. Educational and outreach activities include the use of multimedia to disseminate findings to multiple audiences, both academic and non-academic. Also, the investigators plan to conduct dialogues with local stakeholders and conduct international workshops. Lastly, the project fosters the promotion and retention of women and underrepresented minorities in engineering, including native Alaskans. This project develops state-of-the-art numerical models to enhance a high-resolution sea-ice forecasting system to predict Arctic sea ice thickness, ice ridge stability, storm surges, and risks posed to ships from icing. To support maritime infrastructure and improve coastal resilience, models based on arctic coastal dynamics at a variety of scales will also be developed. Creative approaches to improve learning and risk reduction behavior is incorporated into an assessment of risk management from the anticipated increase maritime traffic and related commercial activity. Indigenous approaches to information sharing will be combined with contemporary participatory data collection techniques to develop early warning signs for conflict. Co-production of knowledge with local communities will provide insights that can contribute to models of decision-making under conditions of uncertainty and these will be validated in workshops with local stakeholders. Finally, a variety of techniques ranging from stochastic and robust optimization to game theory are used to develop scalable, globally convergent algorithms. The investigators aim to generate a solutions method that can exploit risk predictions from ice physics, coastal dynamics, and social/governance insights to forecast expected cargo traffic through Arctic passageways over time, along with corresponding changes to traffic flows along alternative world trade routes and supply chains.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

新北极航行（NNA）是NSF的十大创意之一。NNA项目解决快速变化的北极地区的趋同科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和地球仪的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。NNA授权从地方到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合知识的共同生产。这个奖项实现了这个目标的一部分。随着北极解冻，预计将出现资源勘探和开辟新贸易路线的新机会。商品通过这些路线的增加以及北极的相关工业化将带来机遇和风险。这将需要国际协议和治理规则来维护全球稳定，不仅保护美国北极的商业可行性，还保护当地人民、环境和自然资源。北极地区的这些新机会产生的影响将波及整个地球仪。该项目的重点是创建所需的数学，地球物理，计算和社会知识系统，以了解不断变化的北极如何影响世界贸易流和供应链，并了解北极的自然和社会生态系统和治理的风险。该研究支持美国的国家安全利益，解决全球经济福利，并促进北极社区对新威胁的更大适应力，同时允许北极的可持续发展和经济增长。教育和外联活动包括利用多媒体向学术界和非学术界的多种受众传播调查结果。 此外，调查人员计划与当地利益攸关方进行对话，并举办国际讲习班。 最后，该项目促进了妇女和代表性不足的少数民族（包括阿拉斯加土著人）在工程领域的晋升和保留。该项目开发最先进的数值模型，以加强高分辨率海冰预报系统，预测北极海冰厚度、冰脊稳定性、风暴潮和船舶结冰风险。为了支持海洋基础设施和提高沿海复原力，还将开发基于各种尺度的北极沿海动态的模型。改进学习和减少风险行为的创造性方法被纳入对预期增加的海上交通和相关商业活动的风险管理的评估。将把当地的信息共享办法与当代参与性数据收集技术相结合，以制定冲突预警信号。与当地社区共同创造知识将提供见解，有助于在不确定条件下建立决策模式，这些见解将在与当地利益攸关方举办的讲习班上得到验证。最后，各种技术，从随机和强大的优化博弈论被用来开发可扩展的，全局收敛的算法。研究人员的目标是生成一种解决方案方法，该方法可以利用冰物理学，海岸动力学和社会/治理见解的风险预测来预测随着时间的推移通过北极通道的预期货物运输，沿着交通流量的相应变化，沿着替代的世界贸易路线和供应链。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得支持的，通过评估使用基金会的知识优点和更广泛的影响审查标准。

项目成果

Assessing Coastal Road Flood Risk in Arctic Alaska, a Case Study from Hooper Bay

评估阿拉斯加北极地区沿海道路洪水风险，以胡珀湾为例

• DOI: 10.3390/jmse10030406
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Miller, Anna Christina;Ravens, Thomas Michael
• 通讯作者: Ravens, Thomas Michael

Constructs in infrastructure resilience framing – from components to community services and the built and human infrastructures on which they rely

• DOI: 10.1080/24725854.2022.2070801
• 发表时间: 2022-05
• 期刊: IISE Transactions
• 影响因子: 2.6
• 作者: Elise Miller-Hooks

An updatable and comprehensive global cargo maritime network and strategic seaborne cargo routing model for global containerized and bulk vessel flow estimation

• DOI: 10.1016/j.martra.2021.100038
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Maritime Transport Research
• 作者: Wenjie Li;Ralph Pundt;Elise Miller-Hooks

Capturing complexity: Environmental change and relocation in the North Slope Borough, Alaska

捕捉复杂性：阿拉斯加北坡自治市的环境变化和搬迁

• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Climate risk management
• 影响因子: 4.4
• 作者: Garland, A.

Should Sea-Ice Modeling Tools Designed for Climate Research Be Used for Short-Term Forecasting?

• DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00162-y
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Current climate change reports
• 影响因子: 9.5
• 作者: Hunke E;Allard R;Blain P;Blockley E;Feltham D;Fichefet T;Garric G;Grumbine R;Lemieux JF;Rasmussen T;Ribergaard M;Roberts A;Schweiger A;Tietsche S;Tremblay B;Vancoppenolle M;Zhang J
• 通讯作者: Zhang J