Adult Age Differences in Hindsight Bias

一旦人们知道了结果，对结果的早期预测的回忆往往会被扭曲到实际结果。这种现象被称为后见之明偏差，是一种强大的效应，但其程度似乎取决于年龄。老年人比年轻人表现出更强的后见之明偏见（Bayen，Erdfelder，比尔登，& Lozito，2006;伯恩斯坦，Erdfelder，Meltzoff，Peria，&洛夫图斯，2011）。该研究计划旨在调查这些年龄差异的可能解释，即抑制缺陷，策略差异和记忆差异。Hasher和Zacks在1988年提出的认知老化的认知缺陷理论提供了一个可能的解释，因为它假设在信息处理的不同阶段存在与年龄相关的抑制缺陷。由于后见之明记忆设计是一种干扰范式，其中不相关的信息（解决方案）必须被忽略，抑制（或2分心控制）可能会影响后见之明偏差的大小。通过眼动测量，我们将研究工作记忆中不相关信息的获取及其抑制。然而，差异访问无关的信息可能是故意的，因此，年龄组可能会遵循不同的策略，在完成后见之明偏见记忆任务。因此，作为一种替代解释的解决方案的战略使用进行调查。记忆力的年龄差异也可能起着重要作用，因为较低的回忆能力可能使老年人更容易产生事后诸葛亮偏见。该研究计划将有助于更好地理解认知过程背后的后见之明偏见以及认知老化的理论。

Recollections of earlier predictions of outcomes tend to be distorted towards the actual outcome once people know about that outcome. This phenomenon, called hindsight bias, is a robust effect, yet its magnitude seems age dependent. Older adults show a stronger hindsight bias than younger adults (Bayen, Erdfelder, Bearden, & Lozito, 2006; Bernstein, Erdfelder, Meltzoff, Peria, & Loftus, 2011). The research program is aimed at investigating possible explanations for those age differences, namely inhibitory deficit, strategic differences and differences in memory. Hasher and Zacks‟ (1988) inhibitory-deficit theory of cognitive aging offers a possible explanation, as it postulates age-related deficits in inhibition on different stages of information processing. As the hindsight memory design is an interference paradigm, where irrelevant information (the solution) must be ignored, inhibition (or 2 distraction control) may influence hindsight-bias magnitude. By using eye-movement measurements, we will investigate access to the irrelevant information as well as its suppression in working memory. However, differential access to the irrelevant information might be intentional; thus, age groups may follow different strategies in completing the hindsight-bias memory task. Strategic use of the solution is therefore investigated as an alternative explanation. Age differences in memory may also play a substantial role, as lower recall ability may make older adults more prone to hindsight bias. The research program will contribute to a better understanding of cognitive processes underlying hindsight bias as well as to theories of cognitive aging.