RAPID: Sociotechnical Systems under Stress

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This study makes an important contribution to workplace safety and economic security in managing risky, dangerous, yet essential operations in industries such as offshore oil exploration, shale gas drilling, nuclear power generation, as well as mining for the United States and the rest of the world. Such industries, vital to the continued exploration of new sources of energy and economic efficiency for the United States as a nation as well as a global trading partner, nonetheless create risk to workers, plant operators, and neighboring communities that potentially multiply the costs of error many times over. Reducing the risk of error can be done effectively through the development of a complexity index to measure the degree of strain placed on the performance of large-scale, technical systems by unexpected disruptions. Such an index also measures the impact of strain on the stability of the managing organization and its ability to adapt to sudden, unexpected threats more effectively and resiliently. Timely, accurate measurement of risk enables decision makers to manage resources and personnel in complex technical systems, marshal needed expertise, and communicate to relevant audiences more effectively. Developing improved measures of tension between strain and stability occurring within complex, sociotechnical systems provides an index of resilience that enhances not only economic productivity, but also increases the innovation and creativity of U.S. industry. Mismanagement of complex, sociotechnical systems, in contrast, leads to large losses in lives, property, and economic security as witnessed by the May 13, 2014 mining disaster in Soma, Turkey; the 2011 nuclear breach in Fukushima, Japan, and the 2010 BP Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Reducing the risk of large-scale, sociotechnical disasters through informed management of resources, knowledge, trained personnel and timely communication represents a substantive investment in economic security for U.S. industry and continuing global trade.This study will develop a prototype complexity index to measure the rate of evolving strain vs. adapting stability in complex, sociotechnical systems operating in rapidly evolving conditions. The two functions of strain and stability will be measured as a joint distribution that will serve as profile of resiliency for the system. The complexity index will create a metric to indicate the current status of the sociotechnical system as it is exposed to recurring risk, while indicating, simultaneously, the status of reserve capacity available within the larger operational system that can be mobilized to counter emerging threats. A critical factor in the sustainability of a sociotechnical system's operation is its capacity to adapt to threatening or damaging conditions. A prototype complexity index, designed to identify the structure of a technical system's operation as well as its range of tolerance to varying levels of demand, represents a fresh means of measuring the rate of adaptation to recurring risk for sociotechnical systems under stress. The index will measure the functions of strain and stability at different scales of operation in reference to the overall system's capacity for innovative response, based on the resources, skill, and knowledge of its managing organization. Well designed, a complexity index may be adapted to measure strain vs. stability in other sociotechnical systems operating in rapidly evolving conditions of risk. This practical measure of resilience contributes to addressing management problems in both technical and organizational systems. Findings will contribute to the research literature on managing sociotechnical systems under stress.