A Panel Study of the Dynamics of Change in Egypt and Turkey

人们的社会政治和文化观点因其经历而改变。这种经历的一个重要组成部分是他们生活中重大事件的爆发。这些事件可能是个人的，如结婚或离婚，孩子的出生或失去亲人，开始新的职业生涯或失去工作。改变生活的事件也可能发生在更广泛的社会层面，包括经济状况的突然转变，重大的社会动荡或革命发展，政府通过军事政变或政府的政治镇压或恐怖组织的暴力行为而突然改变。这些事件可能会强化或挑战人们所珍视的信念，导致人们转向保守主义或自由主义。在当代中东，对意识形态生产和跨国价值观调查的比较历史研究表明，社会条件的变化与占主导地位的社会政治话语和人的变化之间存在关联。然而，这些条件的变化如何解释话语和价值观的变化还不清楚。在之前的研究中，2011年在埃及和2013年在土耳其进行了比较调查，使用了每个国家3，000多名成年人的全国代表性样本。本项目将再次访问同一批受访者，以评估自上次调查以来，他们的生活条件的变化和事件的爆发如何影响他们的价值观和政治行为。该项目将通过在埃及和土耳其开展一项小组研究，对价值观和政治参与的变化作出机制性解释，因为这两个国家有足够的调查研究基础设施。这个小组研究将（1）解释社会政治和文化价值观的变化;（2）研究参与和平示威、政治抗议和政治暴力等活动的差异如何与（a）群体间关系，（B）身份和框架，（c）对西方和自由价值观的态度，（d）宗教原教旨主义，（e）焦虑情绪或个人效能的变化联系起来，以及（f）新闻信息来源（互联网、卫星电视、手机）;（3）评估人们对公职人员腐败和可信度的看法如何与政治行动和冲突联系起来;（4）评估本研究对和平与国家安全的影响。该项目还将通过以下方式对调查方法做出贡献：（1）在调查问卷中加入新的事件历史日历，以及（2）评估访谈期间隐私和受访者特征对受访者的影响。

People's sociopolitical and cultural views change as a result of their experience. An important component of this experience is the outbreak of major events in their lives. These events may be personal, like getting married or divorce, the birth of one's child or the loss of a loved one, starting a new career or losing a job. Life-changing events may also happen at a broader societal level, including a sudden shift in the economic conditions, a major societal upheaval or revolutionary development, sudden changes in the government through a military coup, or political repression by the government or an act of violence perpetrated by terror groups. Such events may reinforce or challenge cherished beliefs, causing a shift in people's orientation toward either conservatism or liberalism. In the contemporary Middle East, comparative historical studies of ideological production and cross-national values surveys have shown associations between changes in social conditions and changes in the dominant sociopolitical discourses and people?s value orientations It is, however, unclear how changes in these conditions explain changes in discourses and values. In prior research comparative surveys were carried out in Egypt in 2011 and Turkey in 2013, using a nationally representative sample of more than 3,000 adults in each country. This project will re-interview the same respondents in order to assess how changes in their life conditions and the outbreak of events that transpired since the last surveys affected their values and political behavior. This project will contribute to a mechanismic explanation of change in values and political engagement by launching a panel study in Egypt and Turkey, where adequate infrastructure for survey research is available. This panel study will (1) explain changes in sociopolitical and cultural values; (2) examine how variation in participation in such activities as peaceful demonstrations, political protests, and political violence is linked to changes in (a) inter-group relations, (b) identity and framing, (c) attitudes toward the West and liberal values, (d) religious fundamentalism, (e) dysphoric emotions or personal efficacy, and (f) sources of news information (the Internet, satellite TV, mobiles); (3) assess how people's perceptions of corruption and trustworthiness of public officials are linked to political action and conflict; and (4) evaluate the implications of this study for peace and national security. This project will also contribute to survey methodology by (1) including a new Event History Calendar in the questionnaire, and (2) assessing the effects of privacy during the interview and interviewer characteristics on respondents.