A Panel Study of the Dynamics of Change in Egypt and Turkey

人们的社会政治和文化观点会因为他们的经历而改变。这种经历的一个重要组成部分是他们生活中重大事件的爆发。这些事件可能是个人的，比如结婚或离婚，孩子的出生或失去亲人，开始新的职业生涯或失去工作。改变生活的事件也可能发生在更广泛的社会层面上，包括经济状况的突然变化、重大社会动荡或革命性发展、军事政变导致的政府突然更迭、政府的政治镇压或恐怖组织实施的暴力行为。这样的事件可能会强化或挑战人们珍视的信仰，导致人们倾向于保守主义或自由主义的转变。在当代中东，意识形态生产的比较历史研究和跨国价值观调查表明，社会条件的变化与主导的社会政治话语和人们的价值取向的变化之间存在关联。然而，这些条件的变化如何解释话语和价值观的变化尚不清楚。在之前的研究中，2011年在埃及和2013年在土耳其进行了比较调查，使用了两个国家具有全国代表性的3000多名成年人的样本。该项目将重新采访这些受访者，以评估他们的生活状况的变化以及自上次调查以来发生的事件如何影响他们的价值观和政治行为。该项目将通过在埃及和土耳其发起一项小组研究，帮助从机制上解释价值观的变化和政治参与，因为埃及和土耳其有足够的调查研究基础设施。这项小组研究将(1)解释社会政治和文化价值观的变化；(2)考察参与和平示威、政治抗议和政治暴力等活动的变化如何与以下方面的变化联系起来：(A)群体间关系，(B)身份和框架，(C)对西方和自由价值观的态度，(D)宗教原教旨主义，(E)烦躁的情绪或个人效能，以及(F)新闻信息来源(互联网，卫星电视，手机)；(3)评估人们对腐败的看法和公职人员的可信度如何与政治行动和冲突联系起来；以及(4)评估这项研究对和平和国家安全的影响。该项目还将通过以下方式促进调查方法：(1)在问卷中包括新的事件历史日历，以及(2)评估访问期间隐私和访问者特征对受访者的影响。

People's sociopolitical and cultural views change as a result of their experience. An important component of this experience is the outbreak of major events in their lives. These events may be personal, like getting married or divorce, the birth of one's child or the loss of a loved one, starting a new career or losing a job. Life-changing events may also happen at a broader societal level, including a sudden shift in the economic conditions, a major societal upheaval or revolutionary development, sudden changes in the government through a military coup, or political repression by the government or an act of violence perpetrated by terror groups. Such events may reinforce or challenge cherished beliefs, causing a shift in people's orientation toward either conservatism or liberalism. In the contemporary Middle East, comparative historical studies of ideological production and cross-national values surveys have shown associations between changes in social conditions and changes in the dominant sociopolitical discourses and people?s value orientations It is, however, unclear how changes in these conditions explain changes in discourses and values. In prior research comparative surveys were carried out in Egypt in 2011 and Turkey in 2013, using a nationally representative sample of more than 3,000 adults in each country. This project will re-interview the same respondents in order to assess how changes in their life conditions and the outbreak of events that transpired since the last surveys affected their values and political behavior. This project will contribute to a mechanismic explanation of change in values and political engagement by launching a panel study in Egypt and Turkey, where adequate infrastructure for survey research is available. This panel study will (1) explain changes in sociopolitical and cultural values; (2) examine how variation in participation in such activities as peaceful demonstrations, political protests, and political violence is linked to changes in (a) inter-group relations, (b) identity and framing, (c) attitudes toward the West and liberal values, (d) religious fundamentalism, (e) dysphoric emotions or personal efficacy, and (f) sources of news information (the Internet, satellite TV, mobiles); (3) assess how people's perceptions of corruption and trustworthiness of public officials are linked to political action and conflict; and (4) evaluate the implications of this study for peace and national security. This project will also contribute to survey methodology by (1) including a new Event History Calendar in the questionnaire, and (2) assessing the effects of privacy during the interview and interviewer characteristics on respondents.