Iraqis' Perceptions of the Past, Present, and Future

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Mansoor MoaddelRonald InglehartMark TesslerEastern Michigan UniversityThis project continue an NSF-support study that examines change in value orientations of Iraqis within the context of the new and changing political conditions produced by the US-presence in Iraq, the formation of coalition authorities in 2003, the interim government, and new ruling authorities following the January 30, 2005 elections. This study will examine the effect of these conditions on the Iraqis' worldviews. It aims to: (1) explore key features of the worldviews and the long-term concerns of the Iraqi public under the current conditions of political uncertainty, economic difficulties, and social tensions; (2) understand the similarities and differences between these worldviews and those of the Islamic publics of the neighboring countries where survey data are available; (3) understand how Iraqis assess, rethink, and re-form their conceptions of self and others in the coming years; (4) examine how these attitudes are related to the interaction among the middle-layer social institutions, ethnic- and religious-based organizations, occupying authorities, and the ruling elite; (5) explore how new political developments may weaken/strengthen the development of secular feminism and female identity; (6) identify, in light of the existing comparative historical analyses of culture in the Islamic world, the processes that may hinder/promote (a) the rise of Arab nationalism, (b) Iraqi territorial nationalism/supra-tribal nationalism, (c) pan-Islamic nationalism, and (d) tribalnationalism/ethnic identity; and (7) analyze the key ethnic and religious cleavages among the Iraqi public, and how these cleavages may shape the prospects for the emergence of stable democracy in Iraq. Findings from the first Iraqi survey, completed in December 2004, reveal exceptionally high levels of xenophobia and rejection of outgroups among the Iraqi public. Although most Iraqis endorse the norm that ethnic cleavages in their society are artificial and should be disregarded, we find sharp differences between the attitudes and goals of Sunni Arabs, Shi'I Arabs and Sunni Kurds on important questions. The longitudinal design of this project will make it possible to analyze the dynamics of these cleavages and to determine whether they are widening or narrowing-and the factors underlying such trends. Broader Impacts. Knowledge of Iraqi society provided by this survey would potentially be useful in contributing to policy, enhancing understanding between the American and Iraqi publics, and providing the insight into the Iraqi society that is necessary for building a democratic polity. This project will also have far-reaching implications for the social scientific study of the relationships social transformation, state formation, foreign occupation, and the development of culture and identity formation.