Critical Life-Cycle Decision Making in Complex Engineering Projects for Engineering Economy Courses

复杂的工程项目（cep），如电力传输网络和交通基础设施，对公众和工程师来说变得越来越重要。这些项目在资金和时间上都是大规模的，并且在其生命周期中包含从产出价格到投入成本的重大不确定性。对于cep而言，战略决策具有灵活性或“实物期权”，因为当项目的不确定因素（如价格）变得已知时，决策者可以随着时间的推移改变投资进程。该项目正在开发(1)从随机最优控制的角度强调上述战略灵活性概念的入门课程模块，以及(2)通过团队项目和多学科客座讲座系列为cep强调体验式学习的高级课程。智力价值主要来自学习如何在不确定的情况下为cep做出最好的关键决策（例如，时间、行动阈值等）。开发过程基于数据驱动的设计和反思的迭代周期，以教育设计研究的原则为指导。它将包括三个阶段，每个阶段都有一个涉及学生的迭代周期：(1)分析与探索，(2)设计与构建，以及(3)评估与反思。基线表现将使用基于概念和原则的预测试来衡量，学生必须理解这些概念和原则，以便正确地进行经济分析（即陈述性和程序性知识）。预测还包括自我效能感问题。在完成干预（课程模块或高级课程）后，学生将使用相同的问题进行后测。为了产生更广泛的影响，本项目旨在通过入门课程中的概念模块和体验高级课程来改变工程经济教育。鉴于工程经济学课程在美国各地的工程学院（由多个工程专业开设）中相当普遍，如果该项目成功，项目发现对教学方法、教材和学习成果的有效性的潜在影响将是巨大的。最终，工程经济学专业的学生将在CEP背景下成为更好的决策者，这一技能在国内外技术驱动型社会中变得越来越重要。

Complex engineering projects (CEPs) such as electric transmission networks and transportation infrastructure are becoming increasingly important to the public in general and engineers in particular. These projects are large-scale in terms of money and time, and contain significant uncertainties over their life-cycle ranging from output prices to input costs. For CEPs, strategic decisions constitute flexibilities or 'real options' because the decision maker can alter the course of an investment over time when an uncertain aspect of the project such as the price becomes known. This project is developing (1) a module in an introductory course emphasizing the concept of the aforementioned strategic flexibilities from a stochastic optimal control perspective and (2) an advanced course emphasizing the experiential learning via a team-based project and a multidisciplinary guest-lecture series for the CEPs. Intellectual merits come primarily from learning how best to make critical decisions for CEPs under uncertainty (e.g., timing, thresholds for action, etc.). The development process is based on data-driven iterative cycles of design and reflection, as guided by the principles of educational design research. It will include three phases, each with an iteration cycle involving students: (1) Analysis & Exploration, (2) Design & Construction, and (3) Evaluation and Reflection. Baseline performance will be measured using a pre-test based on concepts and principles that a student must understand in order to perform an economic analysis correctly (i.e., declarative and procedural knowledge). The pre-test will also include self-efficacy questions. After completing the intervention (course module or the advanced course), students will take a post-test with the same set of questions. For broader impact, this project aims to transform engineering economy education via a conceptual module in an introductory course and an experiential advanced course. Given that engineering economy courses are quite ubiquitous in colleges of engineering (taken by multiple engineering majors) across the U.S., if this project is successful, the potential impact of project findings on the effectiveness of the instructional approach, teaching materials, and learning outcomes will be substantial. Ultimately students of engineering economy will become better decision makers within CEP contexts, a skill that is becoming increasingly important in technology-driven societies domestically and globally.