Critical Life-Cycle Decision Making in Complex Engineering Projects for Engineering Economy Courses

电力传输网络和交通基础设施等复杂工程项目(CEP)对一般公众，特别是工程师来说，正变得越来越重要。这些项目在资金和时间上都是大规模的，在其生命周期中包含从产出价格到投入成本的重大不确定性。对于CEP来说，战略决策构成了灵活性或“实物期权”，因为当项目的不确定方面(如价格)已知时，决策者可以随着时间的推移改变投资进程。该项目正在开发(1)入门课程中的一个模块，强调从随机最优控制角度出发的上述战略灵活性的概念；(2)高级课程，强调通过基于团队的项目进行经验学习，并为CEPS提供多学科客座讲座系列。智力上的优势主要来自于学习如何在不确定的情况下(例如，时机、行动阈值等)最好地为CEP作出关键决定。在教育设计研究原则的指导下，开发过程基于数据驱动的设计和反思的迭代周期。它将包括三个阶段，每个阶段都有一个学生参与的迭代周期：(1)分析与探索，(2)设计与施工，(3)评估与反思。将根据学生必须理解的概念和原则(即陈述性和程序性知识)，使用前测来衡量基线表现。前测还将包括自我效能感问题。在完成干预(课程模块或高级课程)后，学生将使用相同的一组问题进行后测。为了产生更广泛的影响，该项目旨在通过入门课程中的概念模块和经验高级课程来改变工程经济教育。鉴于工程经济学课程在美国各地的工程学院(由多个工程专业学生参加)中相当普遍，如果该项目成功，项目结果对教学方法、教材和学习结果的有效性的潜在影响将是巨大的。最终，工程经济专业的学生将在CEP背景下成为更好的决策者，这一技能在国内和全球科技驱动的社会中正变得越来越重要。

Complex engineering projects (CEPs) such as electric transmission networks and transportation infrastructure are becoming increasingly important to the public in general and engineers in particular. These projects are large-scale in terms of money and time, and contain significant uncertainties over their life-cycle ranging from output prices to input costs. For CEPs, strategic decisions constitute flexibilities or 'real options' because the decision maker can alter the course of an investment over time when an uncertain aspect of the project such as the price becomes known. This project is developing (1) a module in an introductory course emphasizing the concept of the aforementioned strategic flexibilities from a stochastic optimal control perspective and (2) an advanced course emphasizing the experiential learning via a team-based project and a multidisciplinary guest-lecture series for the CEPs. Intellectual merits come primarily from learning how best to make critical decisions for CEPs under uncertainty (e.g., timing, thresholds for action, etc.). The development process is based on data-driven iterative cycles of design and reflection, as guided by the principles of educational design research. It will include three phases, each with an iteration cycle involving students: (1) Analysis & Exploration, (2) Design & Construction, and (3) Evaluation and Reflection. Baseline performance will be measured using a pre-test based on concepts and principles that a student must understand in order to perform an economic analysis correctly (i.e., declarative and procedural knowledge). The pre-test will also include self-efficacy questions. After completing the intervention (course module or the advanced course), students will take a post-test with the same set of questions. For broader impact, this project aims to transform engineering economy education via a conceptual module in an introductory course and an experiential advanced course. Given that engineering economy courses are quite ubiquitous in colleges of engineering (taken by multiple engineering majors) across the U.S., if this project is successful, the potential impact of project findings on the effectiveness of the instructional approach, teaching materials, and learning outcomes will be substantial. Ultimately students of engineering economy will become better decision makers within CEP contexts, a skill that is becoming increasingly important in technology-driven societies domestically and globally.