RAPID: Assessment of Cascading Failures and Collective Recovery of Interdependent Critical Infrastructure in Catastrophic Disasters: A Study of 2015 Earthquake in Nepal

RAPID：灾难性灾害中相互依存的关键基础设施的级联故障和集体恢复评估：2015 年尼泊尔地震的研究

• 批准号: 1546738
• 负责人: Ali Mostafavi
• 金额: $ 5万
• 依托单位: Florida International University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-08-01 至 2016-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1546738&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Assessment; Cascading; Failures; Collective

The objective of this Rapid Response Research (RAPID) project is to collect time-bound data on the nature, impacts, and recovery process related to cascading infrastructure failures from the 2015 Earthquake in Nepal. Due to the growing frequency and magnitude of natural disasters, understanding of the relationship between interdependencies and cascading failures in infrastructure systems is critical for strategic investments to enhance community resilience. The outcomes of this research will include a database of cascading failures and associated attributes and variables in interdependent infrastructure systems, which can be utilized to inform planning and decision making processes. By studying the pre-disaster infrastructure interdependencies, post-disaster cascading failures, and restoration interdependencies, this study will help policymakers in the United States, Nepal, and other countries prone to disasters to establish methods and processes to integrate resilience into their infrastructure planning and strategic investment efforts. Despite emerging knowledge on resilient infrastructure systems, the number of empirical studies related to cascading failures and collective recovery of interdependent infrastructure is rather limited. This RAPID project addresses this gap in knowledge by collecting and analyzing data related to the power grid, transportation, water, sewage, and communication networks from the 2015 Earthquake in Nepal. The data to be collected will include primary and secondary infrastructure failures, failure modes, duration of service disruption, pre- and post-disaster conditions and performance, and post-disaster infrastructure restoration. These data will be collected through local infrastructure agencies and direct field observations. Geo-tagged photos and videos of infrastructure failures and damages will be used along with GIS information to capture and document the nature and the extent of cascading infrastructure failures across space and time. The other group of data to be collected is related to the decision making processes of infrastructure agencies for restoration and recovery of infrastructure systems. The primary method for collecting these data will include in-depth interviews with elected and appointed public officials at local and national levels involved in restoration and recovery efforts. Finally, a public survey will be conducted to collect data related to extent and duration of disruptions in infrastructure services in Kathmandu, Nepal. The collected data will be analyzed through the use of statistical and network analysis methods. In addition, a meta-network analysis will be conducted to answer the questions of who, what, why, how, and when to better understand restoration interdependency in infrastructure systems. The collected empirical data could be used as a foundation for verification and validation of the existing analytical models related to cascading infrastructure failures. Hence, the results will enable better understanding of the nature and impacts of cascading failures in interdependent infrastructure systems. In addition, this research will advance the understanding of the dynamics of restoration interdependency and provide insight into ways to influence the collective recovery of infrastructure systems in the aftermath of a catastrophic disaster.

这项快速响应研究（快速）项目的目的是收集有关尼泊尔2015年地震的基础设施失败有关的性质，影响和恢复过程的时间结合数据。由于自然灾害的频率和幅度不断增长，因此了解基础设施系统中相互依存关系与级联故障之间的关系对于提高社区韧性的战略投资至关重要。这项研究的结果将包括一个相互依存的基础架构系统中级联故障以及相关属性和变量的数据库，可用于为计划和决策过程提供信息。通过研究污点前的基础设施相互依存，灾后级联故障以及恢复相互依赖性，这项研究将有助于美国，尼泊尔和其他国家的政策制定者容易造成灾难，以建立方法和流程，以建立将恢复能力整合到其基础设施计划和战略投资努力中。尽管有关于弹性基础设施系统的新知识，但与级联失败和相互依存基础设施的集体恢复有关的经验研究数量相当有限。这个快速的项目通过收集和分析与尼泊尔2015年地震的电网，运输，水，污水和通信网络有关的数据来解决知识的差距。要收集的数据将包括主要和次级基础架构故障，故障模式，服务中断持续时间，污点前和后降架条件和绩效以及污点后基础架构恢复。这些数据将通过本地基础设施机构和直接现场观测来收集。基础架构故障和损坏的地理标签照片和视频将与GIS信息一起使用，以捕获和记录跨时时间和时间的基础架构故障的性质和程度。要收集的另一组数据与基础架构系统恢复和恢复基础设施机构的决策过程有关。收集这些数据的主要方法将包括与涉及恢复和恢复工作的地方和国家一级的当选和任命的公职人员进行深入访谈。最后，将进行一项公开调查，以收集尼泊尔加德满都基础设施服务范围和中断范围的数据。将通过使用统计和网络分析方法来分析收集的数据。此外，将进行元网络分析，以回答谁，什么，原因，如何以及何时更好地理解基础架构系统中的恢复相互依赖性。收集的经验数据可用作验证和验证与级联基础设施失败有关的现有分析模型的基础。因此，结果将使相互依存的基础设施系统中级联故障的性质和影响更好地理解。此外，这项研究将提高人们对恢复动力相互依存的动态的理解，并提供有关在灾难性灾难发生后影响基础设施系统集体恢复的方法的洞察力。