RAPID: Assessment of Cascading Failures and Collective Recovery of Interdependent Critical Infrastructure in Catastrophic Disasters: A Study of 2015 Earthquake in Nepal

RAPID：灾难性灾害中相互依存的关键基础设施的级联故障和集体恢复评估：2015 年尼泊尔地震的研究

• 批准号: 1546738
• 负责人: Ali Mostafavi
• 金额: $ 5万
• 依托单位: Florida International University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-08-01 至 2016-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1546738&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Assessment; Cascading; Failures; Collective

The objective of this Rapid Response Research (RAPID) project is to collect time-bound data on the nature, impacts, and recovery process related to cascading infrastructure failures from the 2015 Earthquake in Nepal. Due to the growing frequency and magnitude of natural disasters, understanding of the relationship between interdependencies and cascading failures in infrastructure systems is critical for strategic investments to enhance community resilience. The outcomes of this research will include a database of cascading failures and associated attributes and variables in interdependent infrastructure systems, which can be utilized to inform planning and decision making processes. By studying the pre-disaster infrastructure interdependencies, post-disaster cascading failures, and restoration interdependencies, this study will help policymakers in the United States, Nepal, and other countries prone to disasters to establish methods and processes to integrate resilience into their infrastructure planning and strategic investment efforts. Despite emerging knowledge on resilient infrastructure systems, the number of empirical studies related to cascading failures and collective recovery of interdependent infrastructure is rather limited. This RAPID project addresses this gap in knowledge by collecting and analyzing data related to the power grid, transportation, water, sewage, and communication networks from the 2015 Earthquake in Nepal. The data to be collected will include primary and secondary infrastructure failures, failure modes, duration of service disruption, pre- and post-disaster conditions and performance, and post-disaster infrastructure restoration. These data will be collected through local infrastructure agencies and direct field observations. Geo-tagged photos and videos of infrastructure failures and damages will be used along with GIS information to capture and document the nature and the extent of cascading infrastructure failures across space and time. The other group of data to be collected is related to the decision making processes of infrastructure agencies for restoration and recovery of infrastructure systems. The primary method for collecting these data will include in-depth interviews with elected and appointed public officials at local and national levels involved in restoration and recovery efforts. Finally, a public survey will be conducted to collect data related to extent and duration of disruptions in infrastructure services in Kathmandu, Nepal. The collected data will be analyzed through the use of statistical and network analysis methods. In addition, a meta-network analysis will be conducted to answer the questions of who, what, why, how, and when to better understand restoration interdependency in infrastructure systems. The collected empirical data could be used as a foundation for verification and validation of the existing analytical models related to cascading infrastructure failures. Hence, the results will enable better understanding of the nature and impacts of cascading failures in interdependent infrastructure systems. In addition, this research will advance the understanding of the dynamics of restoration interdependency and provide insight into ways to influence the collective recovery of infrastructure systems in the aftermath of a catastrophic disaster.

这一快速反应研究(RAPID)项目的目标是收集有关2015年尼泊尔地震造成的连锁基础设施故障的性质、影响和恢复过程的有时限的数据。由于自然灾害的频率和规模越来越大，了解基础设施系统中相互依存和连锁故障之间的关系对于加强社区复原力的战略投资至关重要。这项研究的结果将包括相互依赖的基础设施系统中的连锁故障和相关属性和变量的数据库，该数据库可用于为规划和决策过程提供信息。通过研究灾前基础设施的相互依存性、灾后的连锁故障和恢复的相互依存性，这项研究将帮助美国、尼泊尔和其他容易发生灾害的国家的政策制定者建立方法和流程，将复原力纳入其基础设施规划和战略投资努力。尽管有关有弹性的基础设施系统的知识不断涌现，但与相互依存的基础设施的连锁故障和集体恢复相关的实证研究的数量相当有限。这个快速项目通过收集和分析2015年尼泊尔地震后与电网、交通、供水、污水和通信网络有关的数据，解决了这一知识差距。要收集的数据将包括主要和次要基础设施故障、故障模式、服务中断持续时间、灾前和灾后状况和性能，以及灾后基础设施恢复。这些数据将通过当地基础设施机构和直接实地观察来收集。基础设施故障和损坏的地理标记照片和视频将与地理信息系统信息一起使用，以捕获和记录跨越空间和时间的级联基础设施故障的性质和程度。要收集的另一组数据与基础设施机构恢复和恢复基础设施系统的决策进程有关。收集这些数据的主要方法将包括对参与恢复和恢复工作的地方和国家各级当选和任命的公职人员进行深入访谈。最后，将进行一项公共调查，以收集与尼泊尔加德满都基础设施服务中断程度和持续时间有关的数据。收集的数据将通过使用统计和网络分析方法进行分析。此外，将进行元网络分析，以回答谁、什么、为什么、如何以及何时更好地理解基础设施系统中的恢复相互依存关系的问题。收集到的经验数据可用作验证和确认与连锁基础设施故障有关的现有分析模型的基础。因此，结果将使人们能够更好地理解相互依赖的基础设施系统中连锁故障的性质和影响。此外，这项研究将促进对恢复相互依存的动态的理解，并为在发生灾难性灾难后如何影响基础设施系统的集体恢复提供洞察。