The Dynamical and Chemical Basis for the Future of Pollution Extremes

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Extreme air pollution events pose a considerable threat: it is estimated that currently air pollution is causing 7 million deaths annually and without action air pollution will also be the largest environmental cause of premature deaths by 2050. While meteorology sets the stage for the occurrence of dangerous pollutant levels pollution events do not occur in isolation but involve the interplay between the atmosphere's dynamical and chemical systems. This project will bridge the gap between two separate lines of inquiry into extreme pollution events: one through studies of the dynamics of the atmosphere, the other through studies of atmospheric chemistry and aerosols. The relation between meteorological events and extreme pollution events is still not sufficiently understood. This research will further quantify this relationship, going beyond the proximal meteorological cause of extreme pollution events so as to understand these events within the context of the general circulation of the atmosphere. Recent advances in the theory of atmospheric transport and mixing have shown the value of an objective diagnostic of the waviness of the jet stream and the associated synoptic cyclones and anticyclones as quantified through wave activity. Changes in wave activity and their relationship to air pollution events will be elucidated. These simplifying diagnostics have the potential to transform understanding of the relation between atmospheric circulation and air pollution events using dynamical insights into the underlying climate system. In particular they will allow a more robust understanding of how future climate will impact air pollution through changes in circulation.