The Dynamical and Chemical Basis for the Future of Pollution Extremes

极端空气污染事件构成了相当大的威胁：据估计，目前空气污染每年造成700万人死亡，如果不采取行动，到2050年，空气污染也将成为过早死亡的最大环境原因。虽然气象学为危险的污染物水平的出现奠定了基础，但污染事件并不是孤立发生的，而是涉及大气动力系统和化学系统之间的相互作用。这一项目将弥合对极端污染事件的两条不同调查路线之间的差距：一条是通过研究大气动力学，另一条是通过研究大气化学和悬浮微粒。气象事件和极端污染事件之间的关系仍然没有得到充分的了解。这项研究将进一步量化这种关系，超越极端污染事件的近端气象原因，以便在大气环流的背景下了解这些事件。大气输送和混合理论的最新进展表明，通过波活动量化的急流波度和相关的天气气旋和反气旋的客观诊断是有价值的。将阐明波活动的变化及其与空气污染事件的关系。这些简化的诊断有可能改变对大气环流和空气污染事件之间关系的理解，使用对底层气候系统的动力学见解。特别是，它们将使人们更有力地了解未来气候将如何通过循环变化影响空气污染。

Extreme air pollution events pose a considerable threat: it is estimated that currently air pollution is causing 7 million deaths annually and without action air pollution will also be the largest environmental cause of premature deaths by 2050. While meteorology sets the stage for the occurrence of dangerous pollutant levels pollution events do not occur in isolation but involve the interplay between the atmosphere's dynamical and chemical systems. This project will bridge the gap between two separate lines of inquiry into extreme pollution events: one through studies of the dynamics of the atmosphere, the other through studies of atmospheric chemistry and aerosols. The relation between meteorological events and extreme pollution events is still not sufficiently understood. This research will further quantify this relationship, going beyond the proximal meteorological cause of extreme pollution events so as to understand these events within the context of the general circulation of the atmosphere. Recent advances in the theory of atmospheric transport and mixing have shown the value of an objective diagnostic of the waviness of the jet stream and the associated synoptic cyclones and anticyclones as quantified through wave activity. Changes in wave activity and their relationship to air pollution events will be elucidated. These simplifying diagnostics have the potential to transform understanding of the relation between atmospheric circulation and air pollution events using dynamical insights into the underlying climate system. In particular they will allow a more robust understanding of how future climate will impact air pollution through changes in circulation.