RAPID: Modeling Zika Control Effectiveness with Feedback in Risk Perception and Associated Demand across Scales of Intervention

寨卡病毒是一种主要通过蚊子传播的传染性病原体。美洲的寨卡疫情在科学界和公众中引发了许多困惑和不确定性。随着科学家迅速确定减少蚊子数量和病毒传播的最佳方法，公共卫生专业人员可能需要实施减少蚊子数量的活动，甚至在最佳做法明确确立和指导方针正式定义之前。这可能是有问题的，因为一些社区制定了重要的蚊虫控制策略，但效果可能不太好，因为邻近社区选择不投资于蚊虫控制措施。 该项目将整合行为和疾病传播的统计模型，目的是了解如何协调蚊子干预措施才能有效。 这些模型不仅对寨卡疫情具有短期政策效益，而且有可能帮助应对未来类似的传染病疫情。该项目的结果将与寨卡公共卫生紧急事件相关，研究人员已经建立了机制，以尽可能迅速和广泛地共享有质量保证的中期和最终数据，包括与公共卫生和研究界。在寨卡病毒存在重大不确定性的背景下，政策制定者必须了解需要在多大程度上协调控制工作才能有效预防寨卡病毒。 面对有限的协调，例如跨区域、国家或国际边界的协调，是否有办法制定独立的控制措施，以补偿不协调，同时仍然实现有效的保护？研究人员将开发三个模型：A）一个简单的媒介传播疾病的动态微分方程模型，B）一个空间显式的基于个体的模拟模型和C）一个反馈控制模型，建立在前两个。这些模型将共同为协调病媒控制的政策相关问题提供答案

Zika virus is an infectious pathogen that is primarily transmitted through mosquitos. The Zika epidemic in the Americas has sparked much confusion and uncertainty, both within the scientific community as well as in the general public. As scientists rapidly identify the best way to reduce mosquito populations and virus transmission, public health professionals will likely need to implement activities to reduce mosquito populations, even before best practice are clearly established and guidelines are officially defined. This may be problematic, because some communities that enact significant mosquito control strategies could have less effective outcomes simply because neighboring communities choose not to invest in mosquito control measures. This project will integrate statistical models in behavior and disease transmission with the goal of understanding how coordinated mosquito interventions must be in order to be effective. These models will not only have near term policy benefits for the Zika epidemic, but will have the potential to help inform the response to similar infectious disease outbreaks in the future. Results from this project will be relevant to the Zika public health emergency, and the researchers have set in place mechanisms to share quality-assured interim and final data as rapidly and widely as possible, including with public health and research communities.In the context of significant uncertainty with Zika virus, it is important for policy makers to understand how much coordination of control efforts are needed for effective protection from Zika virus. In the face of limited coordination, for instance across regional, state, or international boundaries, are there ways to enact independent control efforts to compensate for asynchrony and still achieve effective protection? The investigators will develop three models: A) a simple vector-borne disease dynamic differential equations model, B) a spatially explicit individual based simulation model and C) a feedback control model that builds on the first two. Together, these models will generate answers to policy-relevant questions about coordination of vector control