ATD: Sparsity Models for Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Human Dynamics

ATD：预测时空人类动力学的稀疏模型

• 批准号: 1737770
• 负责人: Andrea Bertozzi
• 金额: $ 56.45万
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-09-15 至 2021-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1737770&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: ATD; Sparsity; Models; Forecasting; Spatio

The US continued achievement at the forefront of science and technology requires a significant investment in new research in information technology to tackle the most challenging problems created by the vast data footprint created by digital recording of human activity. This project develops novel models and methods for forecasting human activity in time and space using sparse, heterogeneous data. The goals are very general and are focused on predicting and filling in missing data. An example of the type of data this project addresses would be a year's worth of geotagged Twitter data from a major city along with other informative geospatial information from that region. This project combines expertise of senior scientists in both Mathematics and Anthropology. The project develops analytical tools for understanding a diverse array of cyber-geospatial-temporal datasets. While focused on basic research, the project has tremendous potential to impact national security. This three-year project trains postdocs, graduate students, and undergraduate researchers. The mentees will be trained in research, in presentation of their work in written and spoken formats, with an emphasis on refereed journal publications and conference presentations. They will also be connected to future employers and will be given career advice throughout the length of their training.The project focuses on information technology at the interface between large-scale cultural, social and behavioral processes and the situational conditions that lead to the expression of specific behaviors. This work extends a general conceptualization of text-based topic modeling to handle diverse collections of data types. The project develops methods to detect situational probabilistic effects through spatially-explicit topic modeling. One goal is to organize situational effects into different categories: (a) relatively stationary (e.g., the spatially discrete, but temporally stable role that the physical airport plays in driving airport related topics), (b) intermittent (e.g., discrete holidays) and (c) ephemeral (e.g., Foursquare). Another goal is temporal forecasting while a third goal is filling in missing information from a latent space. The research approach focuses on algorithms that are flexible enough to extend to a variety of datasets. The work interweaves several very useful models and algorithms for large data including self-exciting point process models for temporal information, soft topic modeling such as nonnegative matrix factorization and latent Dirichlet allocation for linear mixture models of data, hard clustering methods built around total variation minimization on graphs and graph Laplacians, and data fusion methods to combine these ideas in which latent space information is studied for forecasting and filling in missing information.

美国要在科学技术的前沿不断取得成就，就需要对信息技术的新研究进行大量投资，以解决人类活动数字记录所产生的巨大数据足迹所带来的最具挑战性的问题。 该项目开发了利用稀疏、异构数据预测人类在时间和空间上的活动的新模型和方法。目标非常笼统，重点是预测和填充缺失的数据。该项目处理的数据类型的一个示例是来自主要城市一年的地理标记 Twitter 数据以及来自该地区的其他信息丰富的地理空间信息。该项目结合了数学和人类学领域资深科学家的专业知识。 该项目开发了用于理解各种网络地理空间时间数据集的分析工具。该项目虽然专注于基础研究，但具有影响国家安全的巨大潜力。这个为期三年的项目培训博士后、研究生和本科生研究人员。学员将接受研究方面的培训，以书面和口头形式展示他们的工作，重点是参考期刊出版物和会议演示。他们还将与未来的雇主建立联系，并在整个培训期间获得职业建议。该项目重点关注大规模文化、社会和行为过程以及导致特定行为表达的情境条件之间的接口信息技术。这项工作扩展了基于文本的主题建模的一般概念，以处理不同的数据类型集合。该项目开发了通过空间显式主题建模来检测情境概率效应的方法。一个目标是将情境影响分为不同类别：(a) 相对固定（例如，实体机场在推动机场相关主题方面发挥的空间离散但时间稳定的作用）、(b) 间歇性（例如，离散假期）和 (c) 短暂性（例如，Foursquare）。另一个目标是时间预测，而第三个目标是填充潜在空间中缺失的信息。研究方法侧重于足够灵活以扩展到各种数据集的算法。这项工作交织了几种非常有用的大数据模型和算法，包括时间信息的自激点过程模型、数据线性混合模型的非负矩阵分解和潜在狄利克雷分配等软主题建模、围绕图和图拉普拉斯的总变差最小化构建的硬聚类方法，以及将这些思想结合起来的数据融合方法，其中研究潜在空间信息以预测和填充 缺少信息。

项目成果

Alternative SIAR models for infectious diseases and applications in the study of non-compliance

• DOI: 10.1142/s0218202522500464
• 发表时间: 2022-11-04
• 期刊: MATHEMATICAL MODELS & METHODS IN APPLIED SCIENCES
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Bongarti，Marcelo;Galvan，Luke Diego;Bertozzi，Andrea L.
• 通讯作者: Bertozzi，Andrea L.

Multivariate Spatiotemporal Hawkes Processes and Network Reconstruction

多元时空霍克斯过程与网络重建

• DOI: 10.1137/18m1226993
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: SIAM Journal on Mathematics of Data Science
• 影响因子: 3.6
• 作者: Yuan, Baichuan;Li, Hao;Bertozzi, Andrea L.;Brantingham, P. Jeffrey;Porter, Mason A.
• 通讯作者: Porter, Mason A.

Does Predictive Policing Lead to Biased Arrests? Results From a Randomized Controlled Trial

• DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2018.1438940
• 发表时间: 2018-02-08
• 期刊: STATISTICS AND PUBLIC POLICY
• 影响因子: 1.6
• 作者: Brantingham, P. Jeffrey;Valasik, Matthew;Mohler, George O.
• 通讯作者: Mohler, George O.

Variational Autoencoders for Highly Multivariate Spatial Point Processes Intensities

• 发表时间: 2020-04
• 作者: Baichuan Yuan;Xiaowei Wang;Jianxin Ma;Chang Zhou;A. Bertozzi;Hongxia Yang

Competitive dominance, gang size and the directionality of gang violence

• DOI: 10.1186/s40163-019-0102-3
• 发表时间: 2019-08-30
• 期刊: CRIME SCIENCE
• 影响因子: 6.1
• 作者: Brantingham, P. Jeffrey;Valasik, Matthew;Tita, George E.
• 通讯作者: Tita, George E.