CAREER: Understanding the Time- and State-Dependence of Climate Sensitivity

职业：了解气候敏感性的时间和状态依赖性

• 批准号: 1752796
• 负责人: Kyle Armour
• 金额: $ 79.98万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-06-01 至 2024-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1752796&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Understanding; Time; State; Dependence

The educational component of the CAREER award seeks to introduce climate science to the classroom at the high school, college and graduate school levels. The project works with high school science teachers to develop educational materials through workshops held on the University of Washington campus. The goal is to introduce the climate system in an accessible form, simplifying it as much as possible while retaining the essential elements and their interactions. Simple models are developed which use one or two equations to represent the evolution of global temperature in response to radiative forcing, incorporating factors such as feedback effects and time delay due to ocean heat storage. Despite their simplicity the models are closely related to cutting-edge research, as such models are commonly used to understand behaviors found in full complexity climate models and the observational record. The models and accompanying materials also introduce students to simple differential equations, scientific computation, hypothesis testing and the scientific method. A parallel effort is organized for high school science teachers in eastern Washington with the help of scientists and education specialists at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland.The research component of the award is an effort to understand the sensitivity of global temperature to changes in greenhouse gas concentration. This sensitivity, commonly referred to as climate sensitivity, is quantified as the warming produced by a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) over its pre-industrial level. Climate sensitivity is an important indicator of the risk posed by greenhouse gas increases, and much effort has been devoted to estimating its value.But the extent to which the impact of greenhouse gas increases on global temperature can be represented by a single, fixed sensitivity value is unclear. Several lines of research suggest that global temperature becomes more sensitive to the radiative effect of CO2 increases as climate warms. In that case that the warming ultimately produced by CO2 doubling is greater than what would be expected from sensitivity estimates calculated at any time prior to the full temperature increase.The temperature increase achieved when the climate system has fully adjusted to the radiative effect of CO2 doubling is termed the equilibrium climate sensitivity, or ECS. The terminology distinguishes between ECS and instantaneous climate sensitivity (ICS), meaning the incremental temperature increase from an incremental radiative increase during the ramp-up to CO2 doubling. ECS is a fixed value whereas ICS evolves over time, approaching ECS as the ultimate doubling temperature is realized. While there is evidence that ICS is always less than ECS, the excess of ECS over ICS has not yet been satisfactorily explained.Research under this CAREER award seeks to understand why ICS changes over time and why it is consistently lower than ECS. A key issue in the research is the dependence of climate sensitivity on feedback mechanisms that are specific to particular regions. A simple example is the sea ice albedo feedback, in which warming causes sea ice retreat, replacing bright reflective ice cover with the darker ocean surface, causing more solar energy to be retained in the climate system and causing further warming. Since the albedo feedback only occurs within ice covered regions, the feedback strength depends on the warming of the polar cap rather than the increase in globally averaged temperature. The PI hypothesizes that much of the ECS-ICS difference is due to regional differences in the rate of warming produced by greenhouse gas increases: if different regions are home to different feedback processes and some regions warm faster than others, different regional feedback mechanisms will be prominent during different stages of the transition to a warmer climate. Changes over time in the mix of feedback processes can then account for the evolution of ICS. The research thus focuses on the spatial pattern of temperature increase, which is explored primarily through analysis of climate model output and a set of focused climate model experiments.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

职业奖的教育部分旨在将气候科学引入高中、大学和研究生院的课堂。该项目与高中科学教师合作，通过在华盛顿大学校园举办的研讨会开发教育材料。其目标是以可接受的形式引入气候系统，尽可能简化气候系统，同时保留基本要素及其相互作用。发展了一个简单的模型，它使用一个或两个方程来表示全球温度对辐射强迫的响应，包括反馈效应和海洋热储存造成的时间延迟等因素。尽管这些模型很简单，但它们与尖端研究密切相关，因为此类模型通常用于理解在完全复杂的气候模型和观测记录中发现的行为。这些模型和附带材料还向学生介绍简单的微分方程式、科学计算、假设检验和科学方法。在里奇兰太平洋西北国家实验室的科学家和教育专家的帮助下，为华盛顿东部的高中科学教师组织了一项类似的工作。该奖项的研究内容是努力了解全球气温对温室气体浓度变化的敏感性。这种敏感性，通常被称为气候敏感性，被量化为二氧化碳(CO2)在工业化前水平上翻了一番所产生的变暖。气候敏感性是温室气体增加带来的风险的一个重要指标，人们花了很多精力来估计它的值。但温室气体增加对全球气温的影响能在多大程度上用一个固定的敏感值来表示，目前还不清楚。一些研究表明，随着气候变暖，全球气温对二氧化碳辐射效应变得更加敏感。在这种情况下，二氧化碳倍增最终产生的变暖大于在完全升温之前任何时候计算的灵敏度估计的预期。当气候系统完全适应二氧化碳倍增的辐射效应时实现的气温升高称为平衡气候敏感度，简称ECS。这一术语区分了ECS和瞬时气候敏感性(ICS)，这意味着在二氧化碳倍增的过程中，气温从辐射增加到增量增加而增加。ECS是一个固定值，而ICS随着时间的推移而演变，接近ECS，即实现最终倍增温度。虽然有证据表明ICS总是低于ECS，但ECS超过ICS的现象还没有得到令人满意的解释。这项职业奖项的研究试图了解ICS为什么会随着时间的推移而变化，以及为什么它始终低于ECS。研究中的一个关键问题是气候敏感性对特定地区特有的反馈机制的依赖。一个简单的例子是海冰反照率反馈，其中变暖导致海冰退缩，用更暗的海洋表面取代明亮的反射冰盖，导致更多的太阳能保留在气候系统中，并导致进一步变暖。由于反照率反馈只发生在冰盖区域，反馈强度取决于极冠变暖，而不是全球平均气温的增加。PI假设，ECS-ICS的差异很大程度上是由于温室气体增加所产生的变暖速度的地区差异：如果不同的地区拥有不同的反馈过程，并且一些地区比其他地区变暖得更快，那么在向气候变暖的不同阶段，不同的地区反馈机制将会突出。随着时间的推移，反馈过程的混合变化可以解释ICS的演变。因此，这项研究的重点是气温上升的空间模式，这主要是通过分析气候模型输出和一组集中的气候模式实验来探索的。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback

• DOI: 10.1029/2022jd036675
• 发表时间: 2022-09-27
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
• 影响因子: 4.4
• 作者: Andrews, Timothy;Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro;Liu, Chunlei
• 通讯作者: Liu, Chunlei

Seasonality in Arctic Warming Driven by Sea Ice Effective Heat Capacity

海冰有效热容驱动的北极变暖的季节性

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0626.1
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Hahn, Lily C.;Armour, Kyle C.;Battisti, David S.;Eisenman, Ian;Bitz, Cecilia M.
• 通讯作者: Bitz, Cecilia M.

Explaining Forcing Efficacy With Pattern Effect and State Dependence

• DOI: 10.1029/2022gl101700
• 发表时间: 2023-02
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: C. Zhou;M. Wang;Mikuláš Zelinka;Y. Liu;Y. Dong;K. Armour

Plant Physiology Increases the Magnitude and Spread of the Transient Climate Response to CO2 in CMIP6 Earth System Models

植物生理学增加了 CMIP6 地球系统模型中对二氧化碳的瞬态气候响应的幅度和传播

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0078.1
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Zarakas, Claire M.;Swann, Abigail L.;Laguë, Marysa M.;Armour, Kyle C.;Randerson, James T.
• 通讯作者: Randerson, James T.

Pattern Recognition Methods to Separate Forced Responses from Internal Variability in Climate Model Ensembles and Observations

将强迫响应与气候模型集合和观测中的内部变异分开的模式识别方法

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0855.1
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Journal of climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Wills, RCJ;Battisti, DS;Armour, KC;Schneider, T;Deser, C
• 通讯作者: Deser, C