The 2007-2009 Housing Crisis: Causes, Policy Responses and Long Term Implications

这个项目将使我们对2007年至2009年美国经历的抵押贷款危机的决定因素和长期影响有新的认识。该团队已经发现了危机前和危机期间抵押贷款债务和违约分布的重要事实，这些事实表明，危机的真正原因不是次级抵押贷款，而是房地产投资者。因此，该团队将在这几年对房地产投资者的作用进行全面研究。这项研究将发展和检验有关信贷供应、住房需求和房价预期如何影响投资者行为的理论。该小组还将分析抵押贷款危机对危机时期年轻人的影响。更严格的抵押贷款标准使这些家庭更难购买住房，与此同时，这些年轻家庭的学生债务要高得多。这部分研究将衡量抵押贷款危机对这些年轻美国家庭的长期影响。该项目的结果将有助于我们了解影响抵押贷款和住房市场的法规的利弊。该研究对科学理解住房和抵押贷款市场做出了重要贡献。它提供了对房地产投资者的全面研究。这类借款人在以前的研究中一直被忽视，因为他们很难在数据中识别出来，也因为很难将房地产投资纳入房地产市场的均衡模型。研究结果将帮助我们了解投资者的活动是否会影响房价的波动，也将证明当前的信用评分模型是否充分捕捉到投资者抵押贷款的违约风险。这项研究还让我们对2007-2009年危机的长期影响有了新的认识。考虑到初始条件对劳动力市场结果的永久影响，以及收入和债务的生命周期路径之间的紧密关系，我们预计，与之前的人群相比，在危机临近时首次进入劳动力市场的工人的终身收入和抵押贷款余额会更低。两个加重的因素放大了这种影响。首先，基于对次级借款人的错误重视，信用评分低的家庭几乎被排除在抵押贷款市场之外，这对年轻人的伤害尤其大。此外，年轻家庭在这一时期背负了前所未有的高额学生贷款。这一方面是由于学费上涨造成的，另一方面也是由于金融危机导致家长的净资产缩水。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project will give us new insight into the determinants and long-term effects of the mortgage crisis experienced in the U.S. between 2007 and 2009. The team has already uncovered important facts about the distribution of mortgage debt and defaults in the years before and during the crisis that suggest that the real cause of the crisis was not subprime mortgages, but rather real estate investors. The team will therefore carry out a comprehensive study of the role of real estate investors during these years. The research will develop and test theories about how credit supply, housing demand, and expectations about housing prices affected investor behavior. The team will also analyze the effects of the mortgage crisis on people who were young adults during the crisis years. Tighter mortgage standards have made it harder for these families to purchase housing, while at the same time these young households have much higher student debt. This part of the research will measure the longer-run effects of the mortgage crisis on these young American families. The results of the project will help us understand the pros and cons of regulations affecting mortgage and housing markets.The research makes important contributions to the scientific understanding of housing and mortgage markets. It offers a comprehensive study of real estate investors. This class of borrowers has been overlooked in previous research because they are hard to identify in the data and because it is difficult to incorporate real estate investment in equilibrium models of the housing market. The results will help us understand whether investor activity affects fluctuations in house prices and will also demonstrate whether or not current credit scoring models adequately capture the default risk of investor mortgages. The research also gives us new insights on the long-term implications of the 2007-2009 crisis. Given the permanent effect of initial conditions on labor market outcomes, and the tight relation between the life cycle path of income and debt, we would expect lower lifetime earnings and mortgage balances for workers who first entered the labor market close to the crisis relative to previous cohorts. Two aggravating factors amplify this effect. First, based on the misplaced emphasis on subprime borrowers, low credit score households were all but excluded from mortgage markets, which especially hurt the young. Additionally, young households held unprecedentedly high levels of student debt in this period. This was driven by rising tuition, but also by the loss in net worth experienced by parents as a result of the crisis.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.