Excellence in Research: Integrated Hazard and Traffic Modeling for Massive Evacuation in Florida Under Uncertainty of Hurricane Track

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Hurricanes are frequent hazardous events in the State of Florida. More reliable and more accurate model predictions of hurricane-induced coastal hazards will provide better information for the development of effective operational plans for hurricane evacuations. This research project will integrate uncertainty analysis of hurricane tracks, hurricane-induced coastal hazard models, emergency evacuation models, and models of accessibility and capacity of hurricane shelters. With the new integration of these models and the capability to examine the interdependencies of the critical infrastructures, better dynamic massive-evacuation traffic modeling can be produced. This scientific research contribution thus supports NSF's mission to promote the progress of science and to advance our national welfare with benefits that will improve future hurricane evacuations.This project integrates coastal hazard modeling with comprehensive evacuation modeling while considering the uncertainty of hurricane tracks. For each hurricane track, coastal hazard modeling is conducted to identify areas affected by the hurricane. Integrated with coastal hazard modeling, emergency evacuation models are used to develop efficient comprehensive evacuation scenarios to avoid delays and bottlenecks of traffic flows based on the consideration of voluntary evacuation, mandatory evacuation, and shadow evacuation. A network optimization model maximizes the accessibility and capacity of hurricane shelters. Selected historical hurricane events are used as case studies to test the integrated coastal hazard and evacuation models. This research exposes students at the HBCU institution of Florida A&M University to many coastal hazard and emergency relief issues, which range from hazard assessments to resilience of roadway networks, enhancing the quality of education and research for both undergraduate and graduate programs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.