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Comparative assessment of potential impacts, side-effects and uncertainties of CE measures and emission-reduction efforts (ComparCE-2)

对CE措施和减排工作的潜在影响、副作用和不确定性进行比较评估（ComparCE-2）

基本信息

批准号：
236740365
负责人：
Professorin Dr. Tatiana Ilyina
金额：
--
依托单位：
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M)
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Priority Programmes
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2012-12-31 至 2020-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/236740365?language=en
关键词：
Comparative assessment potential impacts side

项目摘要

The main objective of the ComparCE project is a comprehensive assessment of the various Climate Engineering (CE) measures and emission-reduction efforts, taking into account uncertainties in the earth system model simulations on which the assessment is based. We want to address various urgent questions, that we feel are missing in the context of CE assessment so far. As a first and central step it will be investigated which assessment metrics and indicators are of importance in the CE context, and thus to the entire priority program, and how they differ from climate change assessment metrics. There has been research in this field for climate change but for the CE debate this assessment is missing. From exchanges with international CE research groups, it became clear, that a future deployment of CE would likely consist of a combination of different CE measures. Therefore in this project we address the question, of how the Earth system will react to a combination of CE measures and whether the distinct signals can still be attributed to a certain technique. In this context it will be addressed how the effectiveness of a CE measure depends on the background climate state, and how e.g. the timing of a deployment might be of relevance. Furthermore, robust patterns of changes due to CE will be investigated in order to enable regional analysis of CE impacts, as well as detection and attribution of signals of regional CE. This is of special importance since the regional climate extremes are of relevance for the local communities. This analysis will also inform the metrics finding process. Additionally, termination of CE will be addressed in the context of the rates of changes in the earth system to inform biological impact assessment studies. Finally, since the only tools to assess climatic responses to CE techniques are models, we feel that an important contribution to the CE debate is a thorough assessment of key model uncertainties. These will be quantified determining changes in the probability density functions of metrics e.g. the probability of passing a certain threshold given different future scenarios. Results of this project will provide a comprehensive assessment of joint mitigation-CE scenarios under uncertainty of models, scenarios and metrics, which will be discussed iteratively with partner projects in the SPP.

ComparCE项目的主要目标是对各种气候工程措施和减排努力进行全面评估，同时考虑到评估所依据的地球系统模型模拟的不确定性。我们希望解决各种紧迫的问题，我们认为是在CE评估的背景下失踪到目前为止。作为第一步和核心步骤，将调查哪些评估指标和指标在气候变化背景下是重要的，从而对整个优先计划，以及它们与气候变化评估指标有何不同。在气候变化的这一领域已经有了研究，但对于CE辩论，这种评估是缺失的。从与国际CE研究小组的交流中，很明显，CE的未来部署可能包括不同CE措施的组合。因此，在这个项目中，我们解决的问题，地球系统将如何反应CE措施的组合，以及不同的信号是否仍然可以归因于某种技术。在这种情况下，它将被解决的CE措施的有效性如何取决于背景气候状态，以及如何，例如，部署的时间可能是相关的。此外，由于CE的变化的强大模式将进行调查，以使CE的影响，以及区域CE信号的检测和归属的区域分析。这一点特别重要，因为区域极端气候与当地社区有关。该分析还将为指标查找过程提供信息。此外，将在地球系统变化率的背景下讨论终止CE，以告知生物影响评估研究。最后，由于唯一的工具，以评估气候的反应，CE技术是模型，我们认为，CE辩论的一个重要贡献是一个彻底的评估关键模型的不确定性。这些将被量化，以确定度量的概率密度函数的变化，例如，在给定不同的未来场景的情况下，通过某个阈值的概率。该项目的结果将在模型、情景和指标不确定的情况下对联合缓解-CE情景进行全面评估，将与SPP中的合作伙伴项目反复讨论。