NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: ARC-NAV: Arctic Robust Communities-Navigating Adaptation to Variability

NNA 轨道 1：合作研究：ARC-NAV：北极稳健社区 - 导航适应变化

• 批准号: 1928259
• 负责人: Andrew Mahoney
• 金额: $ 57.97万
• 依托单位: University of Alaska Fairbanks Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-09-15 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1928259&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NNA; Track; Collaborative; Research; ARC

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim.The Arctic is warming on average twice as rapidly as the rest of the planet, which is leading to significant changes in sea ice to which local communities must respond. Beringia, a region of the Arctic encompassing US and Russian territory, is expected to experience some of the highest variability in sea ice conditions in the coming century. This project focuses on the question: how do we design better and more flexible governance and infrastructure to adapt to changing Arctic conditions? To answer this question, the team is taking a convergence approach to forecast potential changes in the Arctic sea ice environment and the impacts on social and ecological systems resulting from those changes and identify adaptive strategies to enhance resilience to those impacts. The project fully engages local and Indigenous communities and decision makers in the Arctic throughout the research process to generate information and models about critical hot spots of sea ice change relevant to local communities. This will help build local and regional governance capacity and allow the researchers to model and predict the robustness of communities to forecast changes.Coproduction of knowledge between local and Indigenous communities and scientists, and collaborative research across disciplinary and national boundaries, will be used to address four key research questions: 1) How do people understand and perceive changing sea ice, and how do they adapt to variability in ice conditions? 2) Where are the current critical hot spots of variability in sea ice, and where will they be in the future as the environment and communities change? 3) How will governmental and non-governmental organizations in the region navigate changing sea ice conditions and interact with communities to respond to their changing needs? and 4) What features of the existing, and potential, social-ecological systems are robust/fragile to forecast changes in sea ice? This project will document diverse narratives and critical policy challenges around biogeophysical changes and associated livelihood and economic opportunities/costs between and within communities through grounded ethnography and cultural consensus analysis. Satellite data will be used to highlight "hot spots" of sea ice variability and provide a starting point for community and stakeholders' discussions of "change". Interviews with governance actors will identify priorities and responses and generate spatially explicit policy networks. A multi-agent model will link these analyses and be utilized to explore the diversity of issues, projections of change, and fragility or robustness of communities and the infrastructure systems they rely on. Through this research, the project will derive new understandings of community and institutional responses to change, the impacts of spatial and temporal variability within a trend, and robustness-fragility trade-offs that can be applied to other regions as they navigate transitions around the globe in the Anthropocene.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

NSF的10个大创意之一是导航新北极（NNA）。 NNA项目应对北极快速变化的融合科学挑战。需要进行北极研究，以告知国家，较大地区和全球的经济，安全和弹性。 NNA赋予从本地量表到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合了知识的共同生产。该奖项实现了这一目标的一部分。北极平均升温是地球其余部分的两倍，这导致了当地社区必须做出反应的海冰的重大变化。 预计北极地区和俄罗斯领土的北极地区将经历未来世纪海冰状况最高的一些变异性。该项目重点介绍了一个问题：我们如何设计更好，更灵活的治理和基础设施以适应不断变化的北极条件？ 为了回答这个问题，该团队正在采用融合方法来预测北极海冰环境的潜在变化，以及这些变化所带来的社会和生态系统的影响，并确定适应性策略以增强对这些影响的弹性。 在整个研究过程中，该项目完全吸引了北极地区的当地和土著社区和决策者，以生成有关与当地社区相关的海冰变化关键热点的信息和模型。这将有助于建立地方和区域治理能力，并使研究人员能够对社区预测变化的稳健性进行建模和预测。在当地和土著社区和科学家之间的知识生产，以及跨学科和民族边界的合作研究，将用于解决四个关键的研究问题：1）人们如何理解和对冰的变化，使冰上的变化如何适应冰，并适应冰的性能如何？ 2）目前，海冰可变性的关键热点在哪里，随着环境和社区的变化，它们将来会在哪里？ 3）该地区的政府和非政府组织将如何导航不断变化的海冰状况并与社区互动以应对其不断变化的需求？ 4）现有的和潜在的社会生态系统的哪些特征在海冰的预测变化方面具有牢固/脆弱性？该项目将通过扎根的人种志和文化共识分析来记录生物地球物理变化以及社区之间和内部相关的生计和经济机会/成本的各种叙事和关键政策挑战。卫星数据将用于突出海冰变异性的“热点”，并为社区和利益相关者对“变更”的讨论提供了一个起点。对治理行为者的访谈将确定优先级和响应，并产生空间明确的政策网络。多机构模型将链接这些分析，并用于探索问题的多样性，变化的预测以及社区的脆弱性或鲁棒性以及他们所依赖的基础架构系统。通过这项研究，该项目将获得对社区和机构对变化的反应的新理解，趋势内的空间和时间变化的影响以及可在其他地区进行的稳健性 - 利益差异，因为它们可以在人类的范围内导航到全球范围内的过渡。 标准。