RAPID: Influence on Beliefs in Non-Scientific Theories

与流行的负面描述相反，公众对非科学理论的认可不仅仅是极端主义者和偏执狂的领域。很大一部分公众承认至少相信科学界大多数人所贬低的一个问题。对于外部观察者来说，某个特定的理论可能看起来不合理，但这并不排除它具有社会或政治影响力的潜力。因此，了解这些态度的来源至关重要，以便制定策略以尽量减少其传播。然而，研究人员面临的一个问题是，在开展评估受访者信念的调查之前，许多非科学观点已经被政治化。此外，研究人员不可能预见到精英们明确认可大多数科学家不会认可的“理论”的罕见情况。因此，很难理清精英线索、党派之争等的因果影响。目前的研究将重新采访一组调查受访者（之前于 2017 年采访过）和一组新受访者，以衡量他们对不受科学家支持的理论的态度在过去两年（非科学观点被精英提倡之前和之后）发生了怎样的变化。这项研究将使 PI 能够测试随着时间的推移而发生的变化，以支持非科学观点。鉴于其重要性和突出性，以及公众接受非科学观点可能造成的破坏，本研究中获得的知识将有助于减轻非科学观点的影响。在这个提案中，我们凭经验测试个人对非科学观点的支持如何随着时间的推移而变化。我们将重新采访一组之前接受过采访的调查受访者，以利用 2017 年以来的变化。此外，我们还将调查一组新的受访者，并随机化他们收到的观点信息。这些设计的结合将使我们能够测试几个理论上的假设，这些假设涉及一个人的倾向和信息环境的交叉如何为非科学观点提供支持，以及这些观点如何变得政治化。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Contrary to the popular negative depictions, public endorsement of non-scientific theories are not solely the domain of extremists and paranoids. A large proportion of the public will admit to believing in at least one matter that most in the scientific community disparage. To an outside observer, a particular theory may seem irrational, but that does not preclude its potential to be socially or politically consequential. As a result, it is vital to understand where these attitudes come from in order to develop strategies to minimize their spread. A problem researchers face, however, is that many non-scientific views have already become politicized before surveys assessing respondents' beliefs in them are fielded. Moreover, it is impossible for researchers to anticipate the rare situations in which elites unambiguously endorse a "theory" that most scientists would not endorse. As such, it is difficult to disentangle the causal effects of elite cues, partisanship, and the like. The current research will re-interview a set of survey respondents (previously interviewed in 2017) and a set of new respondents to gauge how their attitudes about a theory not supported by scientists has changed in the last two years (before and after the non-scientific perspective became promoted by elites). This research will enable the PIs to test over time changes in support for a non-scientific views. Given the importance and prominence, along with the disruption, possibly caused by public acceptance of non-scientific views, the knowledge gained in this research will enable efforts to mitigate the effects of non-scientific views. In this proposal, we empirically test how an individual's support of a non-scientific view changes over time. We will re-interview a set of previously interviewed survey respondents to leverage changes since 2017. Additionally, we will survey a set of new respondents and randomize the information about the view they receive. The combination of these designs will enable us to test several theoretically motivated hypotheses about how the intersection of a person's predispositions and the information environment create support for non-scientific views and how these views may become politicized.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.