LEAP-HI: Understanding and Engineering the Ecosystem of Firearms: Prevalence, Safety, and Firearm-Related Harms

LEAP-HI：了解和设计枪支生态系统：流行性、安全性和枪支相关危害

• 批准号: 1953135
• 负责人: Maurizio Porfiri
• 金额: $ 200万
• 依托单位: New York University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-09-01 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1953135&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: LEAP; HI; Understanding; Engineering; Ecosystem

Firearm-related harms are a pressing societal problem that imperils America’s health and prosperity. The US leads high-income countries in both firearm homicide and suicide rates, with almost forty thousand firearm-related deaths in 2017, surpassing motor vehicle-related deaths for the first time. Fundamental understanding of the causal relationships among potentially contributing factors, such as firearm prevalence, state legislation, media exposure, and perceptions of firearm safety is needed. In an engineering sense, these factors are linked in complex and dynamic ways. This Leading Engineering for America's Prosperity, Health, & Infrastructure (LEAP-HI) award supports fundamental research to extend engineering methods for the understanding of the firearm ecosystem, as informed by state-of-art research in public health and social science. Through advancements in complex systems theory, data science, and hypothesis-driven experiments, the project will provide insights for improving public safety in the US. The multi-disciplinary approach will help broaden participation of undergraduate and graduate students at four urban campuses, which thrive on racial and economic diversity, and expose underserved communities to engineering education.This research will first investigate the firearm ecosystem on three different scales. On the macroscale, research will illuminate cause-and-effect relationships between firearm prevalence and firearm-related harms. On the mesoscale, the project will explore the ideological, economic, and political landscape underlying state approaches to firearm safety. On the microscale, research will delve into individual opinions about firearm safety. Next, the three scales will be integrated into a data-driven probabilistic model of the firearm ecosystem to afford predictions of the system evolution, comparative studies with other countries, and what-if analyses to improve health and prosperity in the US. This research will advance the state of knowledge in information-theoretic causality analysis, multilayer complex networks, dimensionality reduction techniques, and human-computer interactions toward an unprecedented engineering understanding of the firearm ecosystem. The techniques developed in this project will constitute a powerful toolbox that can be utilized in other engineering domains pertaining to complex systems, where there is a need for statistically-based methods to elucidate causal mechanisms underlying system dynamics and create predictive data-driven models.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

与枪支有关的危害是一个紧迫的社会问题，危及美国的健康和繁荣。在枪支杀人和自杀率方面，美国在高收入国家中领先，2017年有近4万人死于枪支，首次超过机动车死亡人数。需要对潜在影响因素之间的因果关系有基本的了解，例如枪支流行、州立法、媒体曝光和对枪支安全的认识。在工程意义上，这些因素以复杂和动态的方式联系在一起。这项美国繁荣、健康和基础设施（LEAP-HI）领先工程奖支持基础研究，通过公共卫生和社会科学领域的最新研究，扩展工程方法，以了解枪支生态系统。通过复杂系统理论、数据科学和假设驱动实验的进步，该项目将为改善美国的公共安全提供见解。多学科的方法将有助于扩大四个城市校区的本科生和研究生的参与，这些校区因种族和经济多样性而蓬勃发展，并向服务不足的社区提供工程教育。本研究将首先在三个不同的尺度上调查枪支生态系统。在宏观尺度上，研究将阐明枪支流行与枪支相关危害之间的因果关系。在中尺度上，该项目将探索国家枪支安全方法背后的意识形态、经济和政治格局。在微观层面上，研究将深入探讨个人对枪支安全的看法。接下来，这三个尺度将被整合到枪支生态系统的数据驱动概率模型中，以提供系统演变的预测，与其他国家的比较研究，以及改善美国健康和繁荣的假设分析。这项研究将推进信息论因果分析、多层复杂网络、降维技术和人机交互方面的知识状态，以实现对枪支生态系统前所未有的工程理解。本项目中开发的技术将构成一个强大的工具箱，可用于与复杂系统相关的其他工程领域，这些领域需要基于统计的方法来阐明系统动力学背后的因果机制，并创建预测性数据驱动模型。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

A spatio-temporal model of firearm ownership in the United States of America

美利坚合众国枪支拥有量的时空模型

• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Patterns
• 影响因子: 6.5
• 作者: Barak-Ventura, Roni;Ruiz Marin, Manuel;Porfiri, Maurizio
• 通讯作者: Porfiri, Maurizio

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Firearm Acquisition in the United States in Different Presidential Terms

不同总统任期内美国枪支采购的时空模式

• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Chaos
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Wang, Xu;Sipahi, Rifat;Porfiri, Maurizio
• 通讯作者: Porfiri, Maurizio

Inferring directional interactions in collective dynamics: a critique to intrinsic mutual information

推断集体动态中的定向相互作用：对内在互信息的批判

• DOI: 10.1088/2632-072x/acace0
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Physics: Complexity
• 作者: De Lellis, Pietro;Ruiz Marín, Manuel;Porfiri, Maurizio
• 通讯作者: Porfiri, Maurizio

What factors drive state firearm law adoption? An application of exponential-family random graph models

哪些因素推动州枪支法的通过？

• DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.115103
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Social Science & Medicine
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Clark, Duncan A.;Macinko, James;Porfiri, Maurizio
• 通讯作者: Porfiri, Maurizio

The Diffusion of Punitive Firearm Preemption Laws Across U.S. States

惩罚性枪支先发制人法在美国各州的传播

• DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2023.03.023
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: American Journal of Preventive Medicine
• 影响因子: 5.5
• 作者: Macinko, James;Silver, Diana;Clark, Duncan A.;Pomeranz, Jennifer L.
• 通讯作者: Pomeranz, Jennifer L.