Collaborative Research: How Robust Are Common-Era Sea-Level Reconstructions?

合作研究：共纪海平面重建有多稳健？

• 批准号: 2002437
• 负责人: Robert Kopp
• 金额: $ 35.78万
• 依托单位: Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-06-01 至 2023-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2002437&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; How; Robust; Common

Sea-level rise is one of the most challenging aspects of climate change. In order to be confident in predictions of future sea level estimates, it is important to clearly understand how and why sea level changed naturally in the past. This project will collect field data and perform computer modeling to improve our understanding of the main factors that control average sea level during the Common Era (past ~2,000 years). For example, changes in wind and ocean currents, water temperature, and the rebound of land surfaces caused by removing the weight of ice or sediments all contribute to changes in the record of sea level at any location. This project will examine the origin and nature of uncertainties that enter into sea level reconstructions based on errors in estimating each of these factors in the past. The project will not only help scientists improve our understanding of the causes of sea level changes, but it also will help coastal planners by providing better models for projecting sea-level changes into the future. The project will also support three young scientists, deepening their field, laboratory, and modeling skills.Understanding sea level during the Common Era is central to establishing the uniqueness of modern sea-level rise related to anthropogenic climate change, identifying links between sea level and natural climate variability, and training semi-empirical models of future sea-level rise. Past studies estimate global-mean sea level during the Common Era using proxy records. These estimates differ substantially in terms of global-mean sea-level variability during pre-industrial times. It remains to establish how sensitive these estimates are to various uncertainties, assumptions, and choices involved in producing global-mean sea-level time series from the raw data. A detailed study of the robustness and reproducibility of Common-Era sea-level reconstructions based on field, laboratory, and modeling analyses is proposed. Objectives include: (1) determine the reproducibility of high-resolution salt-marsh sea-level reconstructions; and (2) quantify the robustness of model estimates of Common-Era global-mean sea level. Outcomes will fill basic knowledge gaps, advancing understanding of the Common Era, and leading to better characterization of trends, patterns, and causes of pre- and post-industrial sea-level change. By documenting past spatiotemporal variability of sea level, evaluating associated rates of change during the Common Era, and identifying links to ocean circulation and climate, the project will contribute to achieving the goals and scientific objectives of the Paleo Perspectives on Climate Change (P2C2) program. Efforts will make progress towards the broader goals of sea-level research related to the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change, the response of the solid Earth to redistribution of ice mass, and the assimilation of proxy records and instrumental observations within a coherent probabilistic framework.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

海平面上升是气候变化最具挑战性的方面之一。 为了对未来海平面的预测有信心，重要的是要清楚地了解海平面在过去是如何自然变化的。该项目将收集现场数据并进行计算机建模，以提高我们对共同时代（过去约2,000年）控制平均海平面的主要因素的理解。例如，风和洋流、水温的变化，以及由于冰或沉积物的重量减少而引起的陆地表面的反弹，都有助于改变任何地点的海平面记录。 该项目将研究不确定性的来源和性质，这些不确定性是根据过去估计这些因素中的每一个的错误而进入海平面重建的。该项目不仅将帮助科学家提高我们对海平面变化原因的理解，而且还将通过提供更好的模型来预测未来海平面变化来帮助沿海规划者。该项目还将支持三名年轻科学家，深化他们的领域，实验室和建模技能。了解共同时代的海平面对于建立与人为气候变化相关的现代海平面上升的独特性，确定海平面与自然气候变化之间的联系，以及训练未来海平面上升的半经验模型至关重要。过去的研究估计全球平均海平面在共同时代使用代理记录。这些估计在前工业化时期全球平均海平面变化方面有很大差异。这些估计对从原始数据生成全球平均海平面时间序列所涉及的各种不确定性、假设和选择的敏感程度，仍有待确定。提出了一个基于现场，实验室和建模分析的共同时代海平面重建的鲁棒性和可重复性的详细研究。目标包括：（1）确定高分辨率盐沼海平面重建的可重复性;（2）量化共同时代全球平均海平面模型估计的鲁棒性。成果将填补基本知识空白，促进对共同时代的理解，并导致更好地描述工业化前后海平面变化的趋势，模式和原因。通过记录过去海平面的时空变化，评估共同时代的相关变化率，并确定海洋环流和气候的联系，该项目将有助于实现气候变化古观点（P2 C2）计划的目标和科学目标。将作出努力，争取实现与冰盖对气候变化的敏感性、固体地球对冰量重新分布的反应、该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的评估来支持。影响审查标准。

项目成果

Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise

• DOI: 10.1126/science.abo7872
• 发表时间: 2022-07
• 期刊: Science
• 影响因子: 56.9
• 作者: N. Saintilan;K. Kovalenko;G. Guntenspergen;Kerrylee Rogers;J. Lynch;D. Cahoon;C. Lovelock;D. Friess;Erica L. Ashe;K. Krauss;N. Cormier;T. Spencer;J. Adams;J. Raw;C. Ibáñez;F. Scarton;S. Temmerman;P. Meire;T. Maris;K. Thorne;John Brazner;G. Chmura;Tony M. Bowron;V. P. Gamage;Kimberly A. Cressman;C. Endris;Cristina Marconi;P. Marcum;Kari A. St. Laurent;William Reay;K. Raposa;Jason A. Garwood;N. Khan

The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica

• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0
• 发表时间: 2021-05-06
• 期刊: NATURE
• 影响因子: 64.8
• 作者: DeConto, Robert M.;Pollard, David;Dutton, Andrea
• 通讯作者: Dutton, Andrea

A statistical framework for integrating nonparametric proxy distributions into geological reconstructions of relative sea level

将非参数代理分布整合到相对海平面地质重建中的统计框架

• DOI: 10.5194/ascmo-8-1-2022
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Meteorology and Oceanography
• 作者: Ashe, Erica L.;Khan, Nicole S.;Toth, Lauren T.;Dutton, Andrea;Kopp, Robert E.
• 通讯作者: Kopp, Robert E.

Postglacial relative sea level change in Norway

• DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107422
• 发表时间: 2022-03-15
• 期刊: QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: Creel, Roger C.;Austermann, Jacqueline;Menke, William
• 通讯作者: Menke, William