Large-scale CoPe: Megalopolitan Coastal Transformation Hub (MACH): Researching complex interactions between climate hazards and communities to inform governance of coastal risk.

大规模 CoPe：大都市沿海转型中心 (MACH)：研究气候灾害与社区之间复杂的相互作用，为沿海风险治理提供信息。

• 批准号: 2103754
• 负责人: Robert Kopp
• 金额: $ 1993.59万
• 依托单位: Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Cooperative Agreement
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-08-01 至 2026-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2103754&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Large; scale; CoPe; Megalopolitan; Coastal

Risks from rising seas, shifting storms, and eroding coastlines, as well as changing ecosystems and development patterns, are escalating in coastal megalopolises around the world. Local, state, and federal climate risk management decisions are interacting with one another and coastal dynamics in complex ways that will shape risk patterns for decades. However, the frameworks informing these decisions are often ill-suited for sustained, complex environmental changes unfolding under deep uncertainty and often reinforce existing inequities. The CoPe Megapolitan Coastal Transformation Hub (MACH) aims to develop climate-resilient decision-making frameworks to equitably support coastal communities. Fundamental research questions will be addressed through co-production of climate research, with the intended legacy of producing a replicable model for climate risk management. The project is driven by demographically representative stakeholder engagement, which will be sustained through the continuous engagement of researchers with a Collaborative Stakeholder Advisory Panel. MACH partners with organizations that are trusted by and routinely represent, serve, and engage socially vulnerable and historically underrepresented populations in target communities. MACH will broaden participation in the STEM workforce by engaging community college faculty in the development of research priorities and by working with community college faculty and students to incorporate critical service-learning. In addition to facilitating interdisciplinary science through a broad range of academic partners, the Hub advances CoPe goals by linking researchers with coastal community stakeholders and decision-makers to ultimately co-develop dynamic adaptation policy pathways for navigating a deeply uncertain future in an equitable manner.To overcome challenges in the dynamics of natural-human systems drive coastal climate risk, MACH will bring natural scientists, social scientists, civil engineers, and humanists together with coastal stakeholders and decision-makers in the New York City-New Jersey-Philadelphia region to co-produce knowledge that informs climate-resilient development pathways of coastal communities. MACH’s convergence research agenda will provide fundamental insights into the complex interactions between coastal climate hazards, landforms, and decisions that shape the distribution, dynamics, and uncertainties of increasing climate risks. It will facilitate flexible, equitable, and robust planning to manage coastal climate risks, building upon the iterative process of framing, analyzing, implementing, and monitoring adaptation systems that constitutes the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathway (DAPP) co-production framework. It will address three fundamental questions: 1) How can an improved scientific understanding of the integrated natural-human-decision system inform coastal climate risk management and the design of mission-oriented basic research? 2) How do the dynamics of coastal natural-human systems drive hazards and risks? 3) How do dynamic interactions among decisions affecting the coastal system at different scales and time horizons influence exposures, vulnerabilities, and risks?This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

海平面上升、风暴移动、海岸线侵蚀以及生态系统和发展模式的变化所带来的风险，正在世界各地的沿海大都市不断升级。地方、州和联邦气候风险管理决策正在以复杂的方式相互作用，并将影响数十年的风险模式。然而，为这些决定提供信息的框架往往不适合在极不确定的情况下发生的持续、复杂的环境变化，而且往往会加剧现有的不平等。科普Megapolitan Coastal Transformation Hub（MACH）旨在制定气候弹性决策框架，以公平地支持沿海社区。基础研究问题将通过共同制作气候研究来解决，其预期遗产是制作一个可复制的气候风险管理模型。该项目由具有人口代表性的利益攸关方参与推动，这将通过研究人员与利益攸关方合作咨询小组的持续参与来维持。 MACH与受信任的组织合作，并定期代表，服务和参与目标社区的社会弱势群体和历史上代表性不足的群体。MACH将通过让社区学院教师参与研究优先事项的制定，并与社区学院教师和学生合作，将关键的服务学习纳入其中，来扩大STEM劳动力的参与。除了通过广泛的学术合作伙伴促进跨学科科学之外，该中心还通过将研究人员与沿海社区利益相关者和决策者联系起来，最终共同制定动态适应政策途径，以公平的方式驾驭高度不确定的未来，从而推进科普目标。为了克服自然-人类系统动态驱动沿海气候风险的挑战，MACH将汇集自然科学家，社会科学家，在2010年，我们将与纽约市-新泽西州-费城地区的土木工程师和人文主义者以及沿海利益攸关方和决策者一起，共同创造知识，为沿海社区的气候适应性发展途径提供信息。MACH的融合研究议程将为沿海气候灾害，地貌和决定之间的复杂相互作用提供基本见解，这些决定影响了气候风险增加的分布，动态和不确定性。它将促进灵活，公平和稳健的规划，以管理沿海气候风险，建立在构成动态适应政策途径（DAPP）共同生产框架的适应系统的框架，分析，实施和监测的迭代过程基础上。它将解决三个基本问题：（1）如何提高对综合自然-人类-决策系统的科学理解，为沿海气候风险管理和面向任务的基础研究设计提供信息？2)沿海自然-人类系统的动态如何驱动灾害和风险？3)在不同尺度和时间范围内影响沿海系统的决策之间的动态相互作用如何影响暴露、脆弱性和风险？该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为是值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

项目成果

Using Neural Networks to Predict Hurricane Storm Surge and to Assess the Sensitivity of Surge to Storm Characteristics

使用神经网络预测飓风风暴潮并评估风暴潮对风暴特征的敏感性

• DOI: 10.1029/2022jd037617
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 作者: Lockwood, Joseph W.;Lin, Ning;Oppenheimer, Michael;Lai, Ching‐Yao
• 通讯作者: Lai, Ching‐Yao

A Machine learning approach for Post-Disaster data curation

• DOI: 10.1016/j.aei.2024.102427
• 发表时间: 2024-04
• 期刊: Adv. Eng. Informatics
• 作者: Sun Ho Ro;Yitong Li;Jie Gong

Computer vision based first floor elevation estimation from mobile LiDAR data

• DOI: 10.1016/j.autcon.2023.105258
• 发表时间: 2024-03
• 期刊: Automation in Construction
• 影响因子: 10.3
• 作者: Jiahao Xia;Jie Gong

The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise

由于海平面上升而减少沿海防洪的时机

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01616-5
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Nature Climate Change
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Hermans, Tim H.;Malagón-Santos, Víctor;Katsman, Caroline A.;Jane, Robert A.;Rasmussen, D. J.;Haasnoot, Marjolijn;Garner, Gregory G.;Kopp, Robert E.;Oppenheimer, Michael;Slangen, Aimée B.
• 通讯作者: Slangen, Aimée B.

Coastal Defense Megaprojects in an Era of Sea-Level Rise: Politically Feasible Strategies or Army Corps Fantasies?

海平面上升时代的海防大型项目：政治上可行的战略还是陆军军团的幻想？

• DOI: 10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0001613
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Rasmussen, D. J.;Kopp, Robert E.;Oppenheimer, Michael
• 通讯作者: Oppenheimer, Michael