Collaborative Research: Probabilistic Debris Modeling in Coastal Storm Events: A Case of Complex Coupling Between Human-Built-Natural Systems

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Natural disasters, like hurricanes, tropical storms, and flood events, can generate massive amounts of debris, posing significant challenges to coastal communities. Financial and logistical burdens related to debris removal account for nearly a third of reimbursed recovery costs, and threats to public safety range from impaired emergency response to health hazards. There is need for more accurate models to estimate debris presence and quantities after, and preferably prior to a storm, so communities can better prepare for and manage debris burdens. Knowledge about what drives debris patterns is limited, so current predictive models are not accurate enough to support planning or response, particularly for multi-hazard storm events. In addition, coastal landscapes are constantly changing, and as development patterns shift so do prospective debris volumes and locations. This project addresses the need for integrative models that reflect the complex coupling between human-built-natural systems that underpin debris generation in storm events and the cascading impacts on coastal communities. This project examines the drivers of debris patterns and also develops models that couple those insights with infrastructure, socio-demographic, and human health impacts, among others. Resulting insights can inform policy decisions, coastal planning and risk mitigation, and debris management. Synthesis of model outcomes and policy implications will be shared via web hosted interactive story mapping.This project will transform our understanding of debris generation from coastal storms and its cascading consequences on communities by deriving coupled models of the interactions between human-built-natural systems. New methods will be developed for probabilistic modeling of debris presence and volumes, harnessing and fusing empirical data from past events, storm simulations, and physics-based estimates of fragility. A significant departure from traditional debris prediction models will be afforded by introducing nested statistical surrogate models informed by multi-resolution land use/land cover characteristics, physical vulnerability of structures or vegetation, and multi-hazard storm intensities. As a result, coupled models of development and debris potential are enabled for the first time to explore current and future storm risks and policy scenarios. By integrating models of the cascading consequences of debris with socio-demographic characteristics, this project will also shed new light on relationships between regional debris effects and social vulnerability that can inform future planning, management and mitigation efforts. Knowledge co-production and the practical viability of research methods will be advanced by working with stakeholders in testbed communities, to increase the likelihood that resulting models will be useful for future plans and decisions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.