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RAPID: Modeling Outbreak of COVID-19 Using Dynamic Survival Analysis

RAPID：使用动态生存分析对 COVID-19 的爆发进行建模

基本信息

批准号：
2027001
负责人：
Grzegorz Rempala
金额：
$ 19.86万
依托单位：
Ohio State University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2020-05-01 至 2023-04-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2027001&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
RAPID Modeling Outbreak COVID 19

项目摘要

The outbreak of COVID-19 has created a tremendous need for predicting both the dynamics and the size of regional COVID-19 outbreaks. Equally important is the need to determine the potential effects of early interventions such as school closures and mandatory or self-imposed quarantines. To answer these questions, this project will develop a general mathematical framework for analyzing the ongoing outbreak trends using data solely from partially observed new daily infection counts (also known as the epidemic curve). The PI’s new framework will not assume any specific infectious or recovery periods (which are often unknown) or observable prevalence of the disease. The tools developed as part of this project will both help predict the rate of growth of new infections and estimate the effect of social distancing and other preventative measures on flattening the epidemic curve. The PI will use a new dynamical survival analysis approach to predict the trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic for a mid-western region of the United States. Data from elsewhere in the world, like the city of Wuhan in China, will be used to calibrate the predictions. The project will also provide a practical interdisciplinary training for a PhD student and a post-doctoral fellow.The modeling and predictive framework to be developed is fundamentally different from the traditional approach based on the incidence or prevalence counts in a compartmental SIR model. Specifically, the PI will apply the dynamical survival analysis (DSA) approach that considers aggregated mean field equations for the underlying large stochastic network and regards them as the approximate survival law of the infection times. The PI will use these DSA-based equations to model both the epidemic and recovery curves and compare them with the ones observed during the COVID-19 outbreak. The statistical analysis of epidemic data performed with the help of the new framework will allow the quick elucidation of the dynamics of an epidemic (for example, the basic reproduction number, R0) and the potential impact of interventions (such as quarantine or social distancing). The new framework will help provide a better understanding of how preventive behaviors affect COVID-19 dynamics via changes in the network structure and changes in disease transmission across edges in the network. This project will develop a user-friendly software package for computer simulations under different parameter and intervention scenarios (for example, vaccination schemes) that will lead to a better understanding of how to control COVID-19 transmission.This grant is being awarded using funds made available by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act supplemental funds allocated to MPS.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

新冠肺炎的爆发产生了对预测地区性新冠肺炎爆发的动态和规模的巨大需求。同样重要的是，需要确定早期干预措施的潜在影响，例如关闭学校和强制或自行实施隔离。为了回答这些问题，该项目将开发一个通用的数学框架，仅使用部分观察到的每日新感染人数(也称为流行曲线)的数据来分析正在进行的疫情趋势。该局的新框架不会假定疾病有任何特定的感染期或恢复期(通常是未知的)或可观察到的流行情况。作为该项目的一部分开发的工具将有助于预测新感染病例的增长速度，并评估社会距离和其他预防措施对平坦化流行曲线的影响。国际和平研究所将使用一种新的动态生存分析方法来预测美国中西部地区新冠肺炎疫情的传播轨迹。来自世界其他地方的数据将被用来校正预测，比如中国的武汉市。该项目还将为一名博士生和一名博士后研究员提供实用的跨学科培训。将开发的建模和预测框架与传统的基于间隔SIR模型中的发病率或流行率计数的方法有根本不同。具体地说，PI将应用动态生存分析(DSA)方法，该方法考虑底层大型随机网络的聚集平均场方程，并将它们视为感染时间的近似生存定律。疾病预防控制中心将使用这些基于数字减影分析的方程来模拟疫情和恢复曲线，并将它们与在新冠肺炎爆发期间观察到的曲线进行比较。在新框架的帮助下对流行病数据进行的统计分析将使人们能够迅速阐明流行病的动态(例如，基本繁殖数R0)和干预措施(如检疫或社会距离)的潜在影响。新的框架将有助于更好地理解预防行为如何通过网络结构的变化和网络边缘疾病传播的变化来影响新冠肺炎的动态。该项目将开发一个用户友好的软件包，用于在不同的参数和干预方案(例如，疫苗接种方案)下进行计算机模拟，从而更好地了解如何控制新冠肺炎的传播。该赠款是使用冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全(CARE)法案提供的资金授予MPS.的补充资金。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并已通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。