IntBIO Collaborative Research: An integrative approach for projecting insect responses to a rapidly changing climate

IntBIO 合作研究：预测昆虫对快速变化气候的反应的综合方法

• 批准号: 2128244
• 负责人: Joel Kingsolver
• 金额: $ 50.63万
• 依托单位: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2025-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2128244&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: IntBIO; Collaborative; Research; integrative; approach

Projecting species’ responses to climate change at continental scales is a current “grand challenge” of ecological research. Insects are sensitive indicators of both climate and land-use change and recent studies indicate widespread declines in many geographic regions. To predict changes across entire ranges, a variety of species distribution models have been developed, but rarely account for regional variability, ecological interactions or a species’ potential to adapt to changing conditions. This project spans multiple institutions situated in the United States’ southwest, polar north, and temperate eastern regions. A series of physiological experiments will be implemented for five widespread butterfly species with populations sourced from different biomes within each of their ranges. Caterpillars will be subjected to a range of conditions mimicking past, current and future climates. Their development rate, survivorship, immune response, and genetic structure and gene expression (which genes are actively coding for proteins) will be measured and used to build models that predict distributional shifts. Data collected by community (“citizen”) scientists will be used to validate the models. This project requires substantial cross-disciplinary collaboration, and a central goal is to recruit diverse trainees at the graduate and undergraduate levels and train them in the “science of team science”. Project trainees will develop independent research ideas that align with and expand the project’s scope and travel between and work at collaborating institutions as an inter-lab exchange to learn new techniques and be exposed to different research philosophies. Finally, the project has significant management implications for insect biodiversity conservation. Projecting responses to climate change at continent scales is a current “grand challenge” of ecological research. Insects are the most diverse and ecologically important terrestrial animal taxon and are strongly affected by climate change. To predict changes, species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely implemented across many taxa. SDMs, however, rarely account for ecological interactions, plasticity or evolutionary adaptive potential owing to the extensive physiological and ecological data required to parameterize such models. The biology of Lepidoptera, particularly butterflies, is extremely well observed, thus it is logistically feasible to build upon past knowledge and collect additional data that enables mechanisms to be more seamlessly integrated into SDMs. Multiple populations for each species will be sourced from different biomes across its range. Caterpillars will be reared in common gardens under a range of temperature conditions mimicking past, current and future climates. Their development rate, survivorship, immune response, genetic structure and gene expression will be measured and used to build models that predict future distributions. Distribution data collected by community (“citizen”) scientists will be used to validate and improve models and allow robust estimates of uncertainty.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

在大陆范围内预测物种对气候变化的反应是当前生态研究的“重大挑战”。 昆虫是气候和土地利用变化的敏感指标，最近的研究表明许多地理区域的昆虫数量普遍下降。 为了预测整个范围内的变化，人们开发了多种物种分布模型，但很少考虑区域变异性、生态相互作用或物种适应不断变化的条件的潜力。该项目涵盖美国西南部、极北地区和东部温带地区的多个机构。将对五种广泛分布的蝴蝶物种进行一系列生理实验，这些蝴蝶物种的种群来自其分布范围内的不同生物群落。毛毛虫将面临一系列模仿过去、当前和未来气候的条件。它们的发育速度、存活率、免疫反应以及遗传结构和基因表达（基因积极编码蛋白质）将被测量并用于建立预测分布变化的模型。社区（“公民”）科学家收集的数据将用于验证模型。该项目需要大量的跨学科合作，其中心目标是招募研究生和本科生的多样化学员，并对他们进行“团队科学”的培训。项目学员将开发符合并扩大项目范围的独立研究想法，并作为实验室间交流在合作机构之间旅行和工作，以学习新技术并接触不同的研究理念。最后，该项目对昆虫生物多样性保护具有重要的管理意义。预测大陆尺度上对气候变化的反应是当前生态研究的“重大挑战”。 昆虫是最多样化、生态上最重要的陆地动物分类群，受到气候变化的强烈影响。 为了预测变化，物种分布模型（SDM）已在许多类群中广泛应用。 然而，由于参数化此类模型需要大量的生理和生态数据，SDM 很少考虑生态相互作用、可塑性或进化适应潜力。 鳞翅目动物（特别是蝴蝶）的生物学得到了非常好的观察，因此在逻辑上可以基于过去的知识并收集额外的数据，使机制能够更无缝地集成到 SDM 中。 每个物种的多个种群将来自其范围内的不同生物群落。毛毛虫将在模拟过去、当前和未来气候的一系列温度条件下在普通花园中饲养。它们的发育速度、存活率、免疫反应、遗传结构和基因表达将被测量并用于建立预测未来分布的模型。社区（“公民”）科学家收集的分布数据将用于验证和改进模型，并允许对不确定性进行稳健估计。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。