Selection on Continuous Reaction Norms: Relating Environmental Change to Selection and Evolution

定量地理解环境变化如何导致选择和进化是进化生物学的一个基本挑战。我们现在可以解决一系列关于天气和气候变化如何决定选择和进化的基本问题。野外选择主要是由于不经常暴露在极端（热或冷）温度下，还是平均温度条件的频率更重要？热环境中的地理差异是如何产生依赖温度的生物在选择和进化上的差异的？我们能否定量地预测热环境的变化，如气候变暖，将如何改变选择和进化反应？为了解决这些问题，拟议的研究将使用实验室和现场实验来测试描述选择和进化的定量数学模型的预测。本研究以温度对菜心（Pieris rapae）毛虫生长速率的影响为模型；在过去的200年里，该物种的地理分布范围在世界范围内扩大，现在已成为一些地区重要的农业害虫。

Understanding quantitatively how environmental changes cause selection and evolution is a fundamental challenge for evolutionary biology. We are now in a position to address a variety of fundamental questions about how changes in weather and climate determine selection and evolution. Is selection in the field primarily due to infrequent exposures to extreme (hot or cold) temperatures, or is the frequency of average temperature conditions more important? How does geographic variation in the thermal environment generate differences in selection and evolutionary divergence in traits of organisms that depend on temperature? Can we predict quantitatively how alterations in the thermal environment, such as those due to climate warming, will alter selection and evolutionary responses? To address these questions, the proposed studies will use laboratory and field experiments to test predictions of a quantitative, mathematical model describing selection and evolution. Our studies use temperature effects on growth rate in Pieris rapae (Imported Cabbageworm) caterpillars as a model system; this species has experienced a world-wide expansion of its geographic range during the past 200 years, and is now an important agricultural pest in some regions.