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LiT: Phenotype-based models for ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change

LiT：基于表型的气候变化生态和进化响应模型

基本信息

批准号：
1120062
负责人：
Joel Kingsolver
金额：
$ 47.98万
依托单位：
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2011
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2011-09-01 至 2016-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1120062&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
LiT Phenotype based models ecological

项目摘要

How do the morphological and physiological traits of organisms determine their responses to climate change? Which traits are more likely to evolve? To address these questions this project will integrate lab and field experiments with mathematical models for two species of Colias butterflies in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. How temperature affects larval feeding, development, and heat tolerance will be measured and these results will be compared to historical lab data (30-50 years) to detect evolutionary changes. This project will also compare adult morphological traits and heat tolerance to historical data and museum specimens (100 years). To examine how traits influence performance, reciprocal transplant of larvae and adults across sites at different elevations will be conducted. These data will be used to develop models that predict how traits determine survival and reproduction in changing climate conditions. To predict the impact of future environmental change on Colias model simulations with and without trait evolution will be applied. The research will train undergraduate and graduate students to conduct interdisciplinary environmental change research. The project will continue initiatives for undergraduates to report current evolutionary research via articles and podcasts and to train high school teachers in global change ecology. We will apply our models to Colias in Rocky Mountain National Park and publically disseminate our predictions of possible climate change impacts.

生物体的形态和生理特征如何决定其对气候变化的反应？哪些特征更容易进化？为了解决这些问题，该项目将结合实验室和实地实验与数学模型的两个物种的Colias蝴蝶在科罗拉多落基山脉。将测量温度如何影响幼虫摄食，发育和耐热性，并将这些结果与历史实验室数据（30-50年）进行比较，以检测进化变化。该项目还将比较成虫的形态特征和耐热性与历史数据和博物馆标本（100年）。为了研究性状如何影响性能，将在不同海拔的地点进行幼虫和成虫的相互移植。这些数据将用于开发模型，预测性状如何在不断变化的气候条件下决定生存和繁殖。为了预测未来环境变化对Colias的影响，将应用有和没有性状进化的模型模拟。这项研究将培训本科生和研究生进行跨学科的环境变化研究。该项目将继续为本科生提供倡议，通过文章和播客报告当前的进化研究，并对高中教师进行全球变化生态学培训。我们将把我们的模型应用于落基山国家公园的Colias，并以宣传的方式传播我们对可能的气候变化影响的预测。