Modeling and simulation methods for linked lives in demography

人口学中关联生活的建模和模拟方法

• 批准号: 258560741
• 负责人: Professorin Dr. Adelinde Uhrmacher
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Visual and Analytic Computing
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2013-12-31 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/258560741?language=en
• 关键词: Modeling; simulation; methods; linked; lives

Linked lives simulation models in demography comprise numerous agents, interacting in various roles, with detailed decision processes, and dynamically accessing information in a social network that is evolving over time. These models are built partly based on established theories, other simulation models, and data. From this observation diverse challenges for modeling and simulation do arise. The developed, expressive modeling language ML3 (Modeling Language for Linked Lives) allows a succinct continuous-time modeling of linked lives models. The language shall be evaluated and refined in further case studies and in the context of other modeling languages. An efficient execution is a prerequisite for a thorough development and analysis of such models. Therefore, parallel and approximate simulators shall be developed. For effectively applying parallel simulation to linked lives models, suitable strategies for partitioning the social network are necessary, whereas the effectiveness of approximate simulators in successfully balancing accuracy and speed relies on suitable aggregation strategies. Both types of strategies will be subject of research. To support flexible and replicable simulation experiments, a binding between ML3 and SESSL (Simulation Experiment Specification via a Scala Layer), a language for specifying and executing simulation experiments, was developed. Methods to analyze dynamic networks shall add to the portfolio of analysis methods already provided. The declarative description of models in ML3 and of simulation experiments in SESSL shall form the basis to automatically derive provenance information about the various artifacts and processes that contributed to linked lives models. The developed methods will be evaluated based on concrete simulation studies in demography and epidemiology.

人口学中的关联生活模拟模型包括许多代理，它们以各种角色相互作用，具有详细的决策过程，并动态访问随时间演变的社交网络中的信息。这些模型部分建立在既定的理论、其他模拟模型和数据的基础上。从这一点上看，建模和仿真确实面临着各种各样的挑战。开发的、富有表现力的建模语言ML3(链接生命的建模语言)允许对链接生命模型进行简洁的连续时间建模。应在进一步的案例研究和其他建模语言的背景下对该语言进行评估和改进。有效的执行是彻底开发和分析此类模型的先决条件。因此，应开发并行和近似模拟器。为了有效地将并行模拟应用于链接生活模型，需要合适的社会网络划分策略，而近似模拟器在成功平衡精度和速度方面的有效性依赖于合适的聚合策略。这两种类型的战略都将是研究的主题。为了支持灵活、可复制的仿真实验，开发了ML3与描述和执行仿真实验的语言SESSL之间的绑定。分析动态网络的方法应添加到已提供的分析方法组合中。ML3中模型的声明性描述和SESSL中模拟实验的声明性描述应构成自动获得关于促成关联LIFE模型的各种人工制品和过程的来源信息的基础。开发的方法将根据人口学和流行病学的具体模拟研究进行评估。