Spatial Patterns in Traffic Accident Risks: Residential Location Based Analyses

交通事故的空间分类通常是根据事故发生地点进行的。然而，这种方法只给基于人口的风险的结论留下了有限的余地，因为事故发生地不一定与受害者的居住地相符。该项目采用以居住地为基础的方法，对基于人口的事故风险进行地理分析。同时还对居住地和事故发生地进行了综合分析，分析依据的是下萨克森萨克森州内政部提供的2006-2013年期间事故伤亡人数。这些数字包括按意外严重程度、年龄、性别及交通工具分类的伤亡人数。这些数据包括伤亡者居住地和事故发生地的邮政编码。这些数据将与社会人口、经济、暴露、交通相关和城市形态属性相匹配，这样，就可以比迄今为止更详细地研究这些背景属性与基于人口的事故风险之间的关联。这将在市政一级对整个萨克森州进行，并在街区的微观空间一级对汉诺威地区进行。在方法方面，将使用描述性统计和地图以及回归分析和多方程模型（结构方程模型）。将根据年龄和性别、居住区的社会地位（汉诺威地区）和交通方式对人口群体进行详细分析。还将研究风险趋势的空间差异。

The spatial categorisation of traffic accidents is typically made on the basis of places of accident. This approach, however, leaves only limited room for conclusions about population-based risks, because the place of accident does not necessarily match a victim's place of residence. This project employs a residence-based approach to geographically analyse population-based accident risks. Combined place-of-residence and place-of-accident-based analyses are undertaken as well.The analyses are based on accident casualty counts provided by the Lower Saxony Ministry of the Interior covering the period 2006-2013. They include the number of casualties, categorised by severity of accident, age, sex and transport mode. The data include postal codes of the casualties' place of residence and place of accident. These data will be matched with sociodemographic, economic, exposure, transport-related and urban form attributes.Doing so, associations between these context attributes and population-based accident risks can be studied in considerably more detail than to date. This will be done for Lower Saxony as a whole on the municipality level, and for the Region of Hannover on the micro-spatial level of neighbourhoods. In terms of methodology, descriptive statistics and maps will be used as well as regression analysis and multiple equation models (structural equation models). Detailed analyses will be undertaken for population groups based on age and sex, social status of the residential neighbourhood (for the Region of Hannover) and transport mode. Spatial differences in risk trends will be studied as well.